Belmont Stakes Odds 2015: Sleepers with Best Chance at Triple Crown's Last Leg

With eight horses committed to the Belmont Stakes (The Truth or Else scratched early Monday, as did Carpe Diem), three stand tall as the favorites. They are American Pharoah, Frosted and Materiality. All are Grade 1 winners and are entirely capable of winning the Test of the Champion.

That leaves five others that have a significant climb up Mount Belmont. As it stands, they’re all at salty odds according to the prices provided by Odds Shark, who are the warm shower after a long day of shoveling snow.

The mere fact that these horses are in the race means they have a chance at winning. How likely? That’s what we’re here to find out.

If you’re looking to beat the favorites, you came to the right spot. Read on for a look at the sleepers ranked by odds, recent form and recent trips as they try to upset the Belmont Stakes.

5. Frammento: 50-1

Sometimes, though not always, a deep closer has a chance at winning the Belmont Stakes. Frammento, the longest shot on the board, will do just that.

Yes, Frammento, trained by Nick Zito, a sadist trainer looking to thrice spoil a Triple Crown.

Frammento got a good run at the leaders while finishing third in the Fountain of Youth. Upstart won the race then finished second to Materiality in the Florida Derby, so that, in some ways, validates Frammento’s late kick to get up for the show.

In the Kentucky Derby, Frammento faced traffic that compromised his climb up the board. He finished 11th.

“He didn't get the best of trips," Zito said on BloodHorse.com. "He got bumped around at the start. He was doing OK in the race until another horse knocked him off stride, although, my horse still kept running."

With only eight horses in the Belmont, traffic won’t be an issue, and he should get a true run at the leaders.

4. Tale of Verve: 22-1

Tale of Verve proved some people wrong while finishing second in the Preakness Stakes. Just a winner of one maiden race, he came into the Preakness as the underdog.

On paper he was a junior-varsity talent, but thanks to heavy rain and a muddy track, he closed to finish second behind the regal American Pharoah.

The son of 2008 Wood Memorial winner Tale of Ekati relishes distance. His record doesn’t show much right now, but with added mileage (they don’t get any longer than Belmont) he could surprise folks yet again.

"It's in his breeding," said trainer Dallas Stewart on BloodHorse.com. "He's a big horse and has a great stride, so hopefully it will add up. It's going to be a matter of stamina and hopefully the best horse will win."

It’s my assertion that he got lucky in the Preakness. A fast track probably yields an off-the-board finish for him since Dortmund and Firing Line cared little for the surface. But it could rain on Belmont Stakes Day, and that will improve his stock come post time.

3. Mubtaahij: 16-1

People pointed to the inferior field he beat in the 2015 UAE Derby as a knock, but after circumnavigating the globe in Magellanesque fashion, Mubtaahij finished an impressive eighth in the Kentucky Derby.

His explosive turn of foot caught my eye in the UAE Derby, but not many were as impressed. What does it matter if Usain Bolt pulled away at a high school track meet?

No matter, this horse has had five weeks to rest after a competitive run in Louisville and appears cranked for a go here.

"The Belmont suits us best," trainer Mike de Kock said on BloodHorse.com. "Mubtaahij will see out the (1 1/2 miles). We have more than a month to prepare him. Mubtaahij will be more settled and he'll be better for it, he'll come on from his Derby run."

2. Madefromlucky: 16-1

Madefromlucky scares this field because he has a win over the track in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes. He won it from coming off the pace and elicits memories from a year ago when a little-known colt named Tonalist won the Peter Pan and buffed the shine right off California Chrome in the Belmont Stakes four weeks later.

Madefromlucky gets the added benefit of training under the mighty Todd Pletcher’s shedrow. Pletcher won the Belmont Stakes in 2007 and in 2013.

Pletcher said in Claire Novak’s Blood-Horse story after the Peter Pan (h/t ESPN.com):

"

The Belmont Stakes is something we'd talked about a while back. We felt Madefromlucky would keep going and going and going. We wanted to find out where he fit and the Peter Pan has historically been a good prep for the Belmont. He earned his way in if he comes out of this well and trains accordingly.

"

No horse is truly bred to go 12 furlongs anymore, and often the winner of this race goes to the last one stumbling home. It could be that Madefromlucky's ability to outlast may be his biggest asset around Big Sandy.

1. Keen Ice: 28-1

Keen Ice was a sneaky seventh in the Kentucky Derby and will factor in the trifecta at the Belmont Stakes. Where he’ll finish in the top three is a mystery, but the Dale Romans trainee will be keyed up and built for bad.

Gary Young, a longtime clocker, told PaulickReport.com, “I respect Keen Ice. If you watch Keen Ice’s race in the (Kentucky) Derby, when everyone else was shoving for all they were worth at the three-eighths pole, he was passing horses under a pull and he had to steady for more than an eighth of a mile.”

Keen Ice is a challenge to see in the Derby video (start at 1:46), but if you look at the eighth pole, you’ll notice a horse check, swerve and split horses down the middle of the track. That’s him. Once he regains his footing, he takes off.

If you’re a trip handicapper—someone who analyzes the respective paths horses take from beginning to end–you already know that Keen Ice (like Medal Count in 2014, also trained by Romans), faced that unbreakable wall of horses.

The sleeper pick.