Belmont Stakes 2015 Post Positions: Odds and Predictions for Every Horse

At about 6:50 p.m. on Saturday, June 6, a day when the United States remembers the Normandy invasion 71 years ago, American Pharoah will make his assault at the history books as he contends for the elusive Triple Crown.

He drew Post 5, which is not bad for a horse of his versatility. He's right in the middle of the field, giving his jockey options as he heads into that first long, sweeping clubhouse turn.

Seven other horses take aim at Belmont Stakes' $1.5 million purse and a chance to spoil the 14th crack at the Triple Crown since Affirmed last won the Test of the Champion (and those two other gallops) in 1978.

Read on for a breakdown of the Belmont field by post position.

Post 8: Materiality

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

Morning-Line Odds: 6-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Materiality may be the biggest threat to American Pharoah in this field. He ran a spirited sixth in the Kentucky Derby in just his fourth career start. He also broke from Post 3, which did the colt no favors, and still ran on strong.

He’s freshened up for five weeks and could be a factor in the pace scenario come Saturday, an idea confirmed by his trainer, Todd Pletcher:

"

I think with Materiality, if you look at his first three races he's always been close to the pace and unfortunately missed the break at Churchill and found himself in a position he'd never been in. I like the fact that we drew outside of American Pharoah. We're going to make sure we break well this time and go into the first turn trying to make sure there's an honest pace.

"

That either means Materiality will be the pace, or he’ll be forcing the pace. That all depends on how American Pharoah breaks a few spots down on the inside.

Prediction: Third

Post 7: Keen Ice

Mike Groll/Associated Press

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

Post position matters little for Keen Ice. He’ll be running late and has speed to his right and a horse who wants to be near the speed to his left. This will allow jockey Kent Desormeaux to slip over to the fence and save ground.

Dale Romans said, "It's perfect. I like having another horse on each side of me when they all break, and this gives my rider the time to figure it out. In an eight-horse field going a mile-and-a-half, the draw isn't that big of a deal. But the important thing to me was having a horse on either side of me, and we got that."

Keen Ice ran hard in the Derby and finished seventh despite traffic problems. Had he had a clear run, maybe he would have finished fourth in the Derby and people would be giving him more credit and better odds (depending on your viewpoint) than 20-1.

Prediction: Second

Post 6: Frosted

Morning-Line Odds: 5-1

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Frosted makes waves as the second betting choice in the race. He made a strong run to finish fourth in the Derby and now draws a challenging post.

The son of Tapit has American Pharoah to his immediate left. He has Materiality to his right. Now, jockey Joel Rosario knows Materiality is going to the front. Should he let Materiality clear him and sit off the pace in the four path? Or should he floor it so American Pharoah doesn’t swing him too wide?

McLaughlin said in an NYRA release:

"

We weren't looking for any specific draw but in the middle is always a great place to be. In a mile-and-a-half race, they will all have plenty of time to sort it all out. Materiality drew well, eight of eight, as did American Pharoah, five of eight, and they'll probably be the first two into the first turn and we'll probably be third to six and from there we'll let Joel (Rosario) work it out. I'm just glad the sun is out so we can train properly. The last couple of days we've had to jog and now we'll gallop the next few days. Frosted is doing just super and we're excited about the race.

"

He doesn’t appear concerned. His horse has proved he can run up with the leaders or close. Like McLaughlin said, it’ll be up to Rosario, a jockey who won this race a year ago with Tonalist.

Prediction: Fourth

Post 5: American Pharoah

Richard Drew/Associated Press

Morning-Line Odds: 3-5

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Victor Espinoza

What else can we say? American Pharoah is the 14th horse to win the Derby and Preakness double since Affirmed last won the Triple Crown in 1978.

He drew right in the middle of the field with the prevailing speed far to the outside. All that trainer Bob Baffert can hope for is a clean break and that Pharoah isn’t too on the bit early in the race.

"I don't really think it's a horrible post position,” Baffert said. “I've always liked the five. It's one I've had good luck with. The main thing is that the horse is doing well; I think that's the most important thing. He's doing great, but we still have to get around there."

To American Pharoah’s left are four late-running horses, so that will allow him to bounce clear and maybe get to the fence and save ground while at the same time being on or near the lead. That's ideal.

“No. 5 is a pretty good number,” Victor Espinoza said in an NYRA release. “I'm here again. I've come here twice, and I'm feeling lucky this year. The third time is the charm. American Pharoah is always special. From the first time (Bob) Baffert put me on, he was special."

Prediction: 12th Triple Crown winner in history. 

Post 4: Frammento

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Trainer: Nick Zito

Jockey: Mike Smith

Frammento, the longest shot on the board, has two exhibits making his case.

Exhibit A: His trainer, Nick Zito, has spoiled two Triple Crowns with horses at odds of 36-1 and 38-1 in 2004 and 2008, respectively.

Exhibit B: His jockey, Mike Smith, won this race in 2010 with Drosselmeyer and in 2013 with Palace Malice.

Smith knows a thing or two about timing a run with a late closer. He rode the great mare Zenyatta to 19 straight wins while closing from the clouds in all 20 of her starts.

Prediction: Sixth

Post 3: Madefromlucky

Morning-Line Odds: 12-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Madefromlucky is the resident winner of the Peter Pan Stakes, a race run over Belmont’s main track.

He ran mid-pack and made a solid run to the front. Working in his favor is how Tonalist, last year’s winner of the Peter Pan, paired up that win with a Triple Crown-upsetting win in the Belmont Stakes.

Pletcher said after the draw:

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I think he'll appreciate the mile and a half. One of the things we're hoping is that because in his previous races he didn't run the turns very well, and because he seemed to run the turn much better at Belmont, that it'll be a positive. It's kind of a bigger, sweeping turn. He needs to keep improving. I think his last race was his best and he's trained well since then.

"

Pletcher has won two of these races before in 2007 and 2013.

Prediction: Fifth

Post 2: Tale of Verve

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

Trainer: Dallas Stewart

Jockey: Gary Stevens

The good news: Tale of Verve gets Hall of Famer Gary Stevens in the saddle, a three-time Belmont winner.

The bad news: He’s Tale of Verve.

Now I know he finished second in the Preakness, but that was an anomaly. American Pharoah was the only horse who relished that sloppy mess, mainly because Espinoza hustled him out of the gate like they were racing quarter horses.

Tale of Verve is the winner of just one race, a maiden race, at Keeneland in the spring. Always the optimist, trainer Dallas Stewart can’t wait.

He said, "He's a big, strong horse, sound, so here we are. The post is fine. We brought him here right after Pimlico, and he's had some very good gallops. I just wanted to get him here. He's a very big horse, it's a big track, I just really felt like he would love it. I think he's pretty impressive. I like him."

Prediction: Eighth

Post 1: Mubtaahij

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Morning-Line Odds: 10-1

Trainer: Mike de Kock

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Mubtaahij circumnavigated the globe to get to the Kentucky Derby and ran well to finish eighth. That should silence some of his critics who think his win in the UAE Derby was a sham.

Trainer Mike de Kock said:

"

I don't think a mile and a half is a problem at all. He's by Dubawi and there's a lot of stamina in his family. The way he won the Derby in Dubai I'd be shocked if he didn't get the distance. He did win from drawing (post) one in Dubai, but I'd rather be on the outside to be honest. We've got a rider that knows his way around the track. You've got to leave it to the rider.

"

And in many ways, this race will be as much a showcase of jockey talent as it will horse talent. Twelve furlongs is a long way to go and a long time to let the race shake out.

Each jockey in this lineup knows what he’s doing, has experience at Belmont Park or has won at least one Triple Crown race. Only Irad Ortiz Jr. hasn’t won a Triple Crown race, but he is a New York staple and knows Belmont as well as any of these riders.

Prediction: Seventh

Odds are provided by Belmont Park’s line maker, and all quotes come via New York Racing Association releases.