Triple Crown 2015: Latest American Pharoah Odds and Belmont Stakes Predictions
American Pharoah has been the odds-on favorite throughout this year's Triple Crown series, and the colt hasn't disappointed, winning both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Although, he now enters a Belmont Stakes race that has a reputation of dashing the hopes of Triple Crown contenders.
Since Affirmed last won the Triple Crown in 1978, a total of 13 horses have entered the Belmont Stakes looking to claim horse racing's top honor. None prevailed. With the Triple Crown drought now extending to 37 years, the historical odds are certainly against the talented Pharoah at Belmont Park.
Not only is Pharoah dealing with overcoming history, but he'll have other factors against him as well. The Belmont Stakes marks the colt's third race in a five-week span, making fatigue a major factor. Adding to Pharoah's obstacles is a lengthy 1 ½-mile race—the longest of his career—against a field of well-rested contenders.
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As we anxiously await the Triple Crown's third jewel to commence, let's take a look at the race's updated odds and predict the finishing order for the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
Belmont Stakes Odds and Predictions
| 1 | American Pharoah | 5-6 |
| 2 | Frosted | 11-2 |
| 3 | Tale of Verve | 22-1 |
| 4 | Materiality | 13-2 |
| 5 | Madefromlucky | 16-1 |
| 6 | Carpe Diem | 12-1 |
| 7 | Keen Ice | 28-1 |
| 8 | Mubtaahij | 16-1 |
| 9 | Frammento | 40-1 |
| 10 | The Truth or Else | 50-1 |
All race odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Predictions Analysis
That's right, American Pharoah does it again. Sure, the colt will be the most fatigued contender at Belmont Park, but from what we saw at both Churchill Downs and Pimlico, stamina is not an issue for this Triple Crown hopeful.
While the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes were two completely different races for Pharoah, the colt ran them in similar fashions. He was forced to accelerate quickly out of the gate in both races, as he needed to make up ground from the outside in the Derby and get past traffic out of the No. 1 gate in the Preakness. Despite that early exertion, Pharoah was still able to finish strong in both races.
So, here's what we've learned: Pharoah's stamina is off the charts.
Not many horses would be able to run three wide in the Derby and still have enough gas to cruise to the front of the pack down the final stretch. Similarly, not many contenders would have been able to fly to a seven-length victory after sprinting out of the gate to avoid traffic early in the Preakness.
But how is Pharoah looking right now? After all, he's likely tired after those races. Well, trainer Bob Baffert recently shared some insight during an interview with Dan Wolken of USA Today:
"It's about the horse now. Is he good enough to do it? It always happens to me when I go up (to New York). I start feeling pressure because I don't want to let those fans down. Every year, people say, 'This is the one.' So hopefully, maybe this is the one. We don't know. All indications show me he's doing well.
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Baffert seems confident in the way Pharoah has performed in recent workouts. After taking that into consideration, there's no reason to go against the favorite at this point.
Frosted is the likeliest contender to challenge Pharoah down the final stretch. The colt has produced some inconsistent results in 2015, earning a win in the Wood Memorial along with a pair of fourth-place finishes—one of which came in the Kentucky Derby—and a runner-up showing.
The reason behind the colt's inconsistent finishes is his running style. Frosted hasn't been a great horse out of the gate, routinely falling to the rear of the pack early. He's been successful due to his tremendous closing ability, as he can maintain a brisk pace throughout the final half mile of a race, cruising past the bulk of the field in the process.
In smaller races like the Wood Memorial, that style paid off for Frosted, as navigating to the front was easier. However, in a bigger field at Churchill Downs, running past a hefty amount of traffic before the finish line was rather improbable.
The longer distance of the Belmont Stakes may be beneficial for Frosted, as he'll have extra time to continue his surge to the front while his opposition tires.
Rounding out the top three is Tale of Verve, which likely comes as a surprise. This horse took a while to get going, running in six Maiden Special Weights before finally winning. From there, he went on to compete in the Preakness Stakes and was successful, making up plenty of ground late in the race to finish second behind Pharoah.
What makes Tale of Verve so intriguing in the Belmont Stakes is his combination of rest and stamina. He's only raced three times since the beginning of March and displayed a great deal of endurance at Pimlico. Since Tale of Verve is still fresh, we're likely to see that same kind of stamina and closing ability at Belmont Park.
If Tale of Verve can get a clean break out of the gate and put himself in a decent position early, he'll be a major factor late in the race.
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