Everything You Need to Know About Triple Crown Hopeful American Pharoah

American Pharoah, the latest colt to win the Double Crown, is looking to become No. 12, as in the 12th horse to win the elusive Triple Crown.

Twelve horses have approached the pearly, Triple Crown gates but have been denied admittance by fresher talent or getting draped in lead-vest-heavy humidity. Such is June at Belmont Park.

Kent Desormeaux, who was aboard Big Brown in 2008, the last horse that inspired the kind of confidence American Pharoah has, could do nothing but shake his head in disbelief at the 11.

“I had no horse,” Desormeaux said in Joe Drape’s New York Times story in 2008. “I can't fathom what kind of freaks those 11 Triple Crown winners were.”

And American Pharoah could be the 12th freak. Let’s roll out the scouting report of all scouting reports on this special equine talent.

Pedigree

Sire: Pioneerof the Nile, by Empire Maker

Pioneerof the Nile was the runner-up in the 2009 Kentucky Derby, but was never quite the same after that and was retired by July of that year.

Fun fact: He too was owned by Ahmed Zayat and he too was trained by Bob Baffert.

But it’s not his sire who says 12 furlongs, it’s his grandpa, 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker.

Thanks to him (and others), American Pharoah has a steroidic 4.33 dosage index. What’s dosage? It’s a value that tries to explain a horse’s potential for long-distance endurance. 

That 4.33 wouldn't suggest American Pharoah could carry his speed up to 12 furlongs and over the Rocky Mountains, but he proved he could outrun his dosage by winning at 1 ¼ miles in the Derby.

It’s that extra quarter-mile that puts hair on a horse’s chest.

The Team

Rob Carr/Getty Images

The Trainer: Bob Baffert

Baffert has thrice been in this position before. He brought a Triple Crown contender to Belmont Park in 1997, 1998 and 2002. Baffert came within a nose of winning the Triple Crown with Real Quiet in 1998, one of the most painful beats you'll ever see.

Baffert said in Eric Crawford’s WDRB.com story:

"

I thought Real Quiet won. I thought he held on and won. It was sort of a moment that was a different kind of moment. It wasn't like the Kentucky Derby. You're exhausted. By (the end of the Belmont), everybody's tired and we just want it to end, you know? You can't wait till you get them into the gate.

"

Which is probably why Baffert remains on the West Coast and why American Pharoah trains at Churchill Downs away from New York and the pressure a Triple Crown rains on a team.

The Owner: Ahmed Zayat

Ahmed Zayat can finally cast aside the bridesmaid tag in these races.

He famously has three second-place finishes in the Derby with Pioneerof the Nile, Nehro and Bodemeister. Bodemeister placed second in the Preakness and Paynter echoed that in the Belmont.

Come Saturday, Zayat told the Albany Times-Union’s Tim Wilkin:

"

I will be more excited than nervous. We have achieved everything we have wanted so far. I am not going to call it destiny. I am excited, very pumped, not scared. I feel like we really can enter the history books in a big way. We haven't had a Triple Crown winner in 37 years. We have a shot at it, and I am very humbled about that. Just having a shot at it.

"

Zayat has been in the game only nine years, and what he’s been able to do in that time is truly remarkable.

The Jockey: Victor Espinoza

Victor Espinoza told NBC after winning the Derby that he was “the luckiest Mexican.” Having a third crack at the Triple Crown and second in a row speaks more to his skill, but also luck. His first try was in 2002 with War Emblem, and he had another shot in 2014 with California Chrome.

Espinoza said in Alicia Wincze Hughes’ story in the Ledger-Enquirer

"

It's just amazing to be in this position that I'm at right now. To win the Derby and the Preakness last year and to come back with another amazing horse in American Pharoah ... I've been down many times in the Belmont, but it's still one of my favorite places and I'm coming back again. That's a good feeling to have. Hopefully third time is the charm

"

Espinoza takes instruction well and also has sense to adjust. He did so in the Preakness after it rained. It changed his tactics and shot American Pharoah out of Post 1 like there was a rattlesnake dancing on the ground.

A third time means he knows what’s coming. Add Baffert’s fourth try to the mix, and there may be no better team to get this done than these men.

Biggest Strength

I’ve used this metaphor before, but it demands repeating when it comes to American Pharoah: He has more than one pitch.

Most horses are one of three types of runners: speed horses (pace setters), stalkers (sit just off the pace) or closers (spotting 10-20 lengths early in the race for one sustained run at the end).

Stalkers are generally the most dangerous because there are more options and the jockey can decide whether to press the issue or sit back and wait for a time to unleash those giant strides.

American Pharoah can be either a speed horse or a stalker, and that makes him especially versatile. In the Derby, the terms set up beautifully for him to sit off the speed and then kick clear.

In the Preakness, he hustled out of the gate like it was a quarter-horse race and set the pace. The first quarter-mile was fast, but once the race unfolded, the internal fractions slowed down and allowed American Pharoah to win wire-to-wire.

The preferred running style to win the Belmont is to be close to the leaders and there will, no doubt, be a few horses who want the lead. It will be up to Espinoza to put American Pharoah in a comfortable spot, relax and let the race come to him.

Greatest Weakness

Chris Carlson/Associated Press

From a tactical, physical, talent standpoint, American Pharoah has no weakness. He has a high cruising speed and a generationally efficient stride.

His greatest weakness is this: relative fatigue.

The Belmont Stakes will be his fourth race in eight weeks. Granted, only one of those was truly taxing, that being the Kentucky Derby.

His first win of this little streak was in the Arkansas Derby where he simply galloped home with barely a deep breath. The Preakness’ opening quarter-mile was intense, but after that American Pharoah relaxed and loped home with ease.

The son of Pioneerof the Nile will run into a horse like Materiality who will enter just his fifth career race and third since March 28.

That said, American Pharoah just whipped through five furlongs at Churchill Downs in 1:00.20, which signifies that this horse is champing at the bit.

Gary Young, a veteran clocker, said in Ed Golden’s story on PaulickReport.com:

"

If they’re ever going to beat him, it’s going to be this race. I think he’s the best horse in this crop by more than a little bit, and I think he’s the best horse I’ve seen in a while. Obviously, I’ve been on record as saying that.

He’s still got to prove that, but as far as horses going through the Triple Crown, I think he’s the best I’ve seen in some time.

"

Two of his last three races were relatively easy, but there still remains the cumulative wear and tear on his body. Even the best cars need to hit pit road for new tires, and American Pharoah has chosen to stay on the lead lap while others pitted.

How He Compares to Past Triple Crown Hopefuls

Similar to Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, Sunday Silence and Spectacular Bid, American Pharoah is most dangerous when he sits just off the lead.

All these colts stalked the early pace, let the deciduous leaders fall off the front and then did their serious running in the final furlongs.

Sunday Silence’s Preakness Stakes is one of the more horripilative finishes you’ll ever see.

Big Brown and Smarty Jones never needed the lead, but could go up and grab it if they needed it. Smarty Jones was strong-armed into a hot pace in the 2004 Belmont to heartbreaking results.

These horses didn’t get it done. Big Brown was eased after his jockey, Kent Desormeaux, sensed some discomfort (Weather? No steroids? Stepped on?). Smarty Jones, as previously mentioned, was the victim of jockey agendas or pilot error (depends on who you ask). Sunday Silence’s rival, Easy Goer (who finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness), simply blew past him at the top of the stretch. Silver Charm and Spectacular Bid just got mowed down in the final strides.

These were good horses who just ran smack into the stone cold wall of history, so how does American Pharoah stand above them? We may not know until Belmont Stakes Day since Smarty Jones and Big Brown were compromised in different ways during the race.

Smarty Jones, just like American Pharoah, ran in the Arkansas Derby, Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont, the same four races over the same eight weeks. Smarty Jones was taxed far more than the Pharoah ever was, and that extra diesel in Pharoah's tank may be what separates him from all the other horses in this slide.

How He Compares to Triple Crown Winners

American Pharoah, like many of the Triple Crown winners of yore, was the Champion Two-Year-Old.

There’s a small handful of horses coming up trying to win these classics with no two-year-old base. Materiality comes to mind. There’s a reason no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing at age two since Apollo in 1882; the horses need some of that rigor at a young age.

Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Secretariat, Citation, Whirlaway and Count Fleet all built solid foundations at two and won the award for their precocity. They then carried that base over and continued to progress. They were good and became great.

Joe Drape wrote in his New York Times column:

"

American Pharoah also has a running style similar to those of many of the greats. He likes to be on or near the front early in the race, possesses a high cruising speed and has a grittiness that wears down his rivals in the late going. Affirmed, Seattle Slew and, most memorably, Secretariat took control of the Belmont Stakes from the gate and never gave an inch as each passed the Test of the Champion, as the grueling mile and a half is known.

"

The Belmont can be won by a horse on the lead, and American Pharoah could be cruising first or second at first call.

Can he sustain it?

Prediction for the Belmont Stakes

Garry Jones/Associated Press

American Pharoah became the 14th horse since Affirmed to win the Derby and Preakness. Should he reach Belmont Park in good order, he’ll be the 13th horse to contend for the Triple Crown (I’ll Have Another scratched the morning of 2012 Belmont Stakes).

Baffert said in Joe Drape's New York Times story, "It’s going to be tough. I know everybody right now is sharpening their knives, getting ready.”

It’s awfully presumptuous to think a horse can actually pull off this Triple Crown. They don’t make them like they used to. John Pricci of HorseRaceInsider.com wrote:

"

We breed Thoroughbred Ferraris in this country, not Subarus. Speed, like sex, sells. What good is circumnavigating the globe if you can’t get there fast enough with the latest piece of equine eye candy?

And it doesn’t help that to assure yearlings make sure to the auction ring making the best appearance they can--a little nip here, a little corrective surgery there, and voila--a mercurial equine star whose brilliance will blind until it flames out.

"

But this time it feels different, like American Pharoah is a Ferrari that gets 40 miles per gallon while ripping through German Autobahns at 100 mph. American Pharoah has the versatility. His trainer goes for his fourth crack at the Triple Crown. His jockey tries for this third and second in two years. The horse is training well and has answered every bell.

He’s got pedigree, speed and endurance. He’s what we call in this game a “freak,” a term that gets thrown around far too often. There are 11 pure freaks that this sport has seen since Sir Barton became the first Triple Crown winner in 1919, and American Pharoah will be the 12th.