2015 Belmont Stakes: Potential Triple Crown Pitfalls for American Pharoah
There is no such thing as a sure thing in horse racing.
Particularly if that sure thing is running in the Belmont Stakes and is gunning for the Triple Crown. Thirteen horses have tried to win the final jewel of the crown since Affirmed accomplished the feat in 1978, and all of them have failed. Most of them were favored to win the Belmont Stakes, but none of them was able to accomplish that feat.
However, with five days to go before the race, American Pharoah is a 5-6 favorite, according to Odds Shark, to win and secure horse racing's most valuable title of Triple Crown winner. American Pharoah had an impressive victory in the Kentucky Derby over 17 other runners. Not only did he escape the traffic at the start of the race, but he had a strong run down the Churchill Downs stretch to win the Run for the Roses.
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American Pharoah's win in the Preakness Stakes was even more impressive. The skies opened up in Baltimore on May 16, and the downpour could have caused issues for trainer Bob Baffert's prized colt. However, American Pharoah had no problems with the rain or the track conditions and won by seven lengths.
That type of victory indicates that American Pharoah is getting better every race. However, there are still a number of issues that could impact his run and keep him from a strong race and the win at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York, Saturday.
Fatigue
This has been the biggest issue for many of the recent Triple Crown near-misses. American Pharoah ran 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby May 2 and then 1 3/16 miles at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. While there are three weeks between the Preakness and the 1 1/2-mile Belmont, that's a lot to ask of a three-year-old colt.
It's especially difficult since many of the other prime competitors in the Belmont are well-rested and did not run in the Preakness. There are no indications of any problems with American Pharoah as he prepares for the race, but that doesn't mean he will be at his best on Saturday.
If American Pharoah is not a superhorse, fatigue could become an issue as he attempts to secure the Triple Crown.
Training Accident
If this sounds like a crackpot theory, think again. The first of the 13 previous horses to have a shot at the Triple Crown after Affirmed's victory was Spectacular Bid in 1979. Spectacular Bid was considered a lock to win the race because he had taken the first two Triple Crown races in impressive fashion.
However, he stepped on a safety pin the morning of the race, and its point went into his hoof. While Spectacular Bid lined up and ran well for the first half, he slowed down in the stretch and was unable to complete his Triple Crown effort.
Many thought the errant pin was the reason for his Belmont Stakes failure.
Previous Injury
Speaking of foot problems, horse racing fans may remember that American Pharoah pulled out of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year at Santa Anita when he was expected to run a strong race.
American Pharoah was the 2-1 favorite to win, but he suffered a bone bruise that Baffert noticed after a poor workout the week of the race. The bruise was so severe that X-rays and an ultrasound were taken. Luckily for American Pharoah, they came back negative.
However, if he had that injury once, it could happen again. While it may not be likely, it is possible.
Potential Travel Problems
American Pharoah is still training at Churchill Downs in Kentucky. Baffert doesn't have the colt scheduled to ship to New York until Tuesday, per the Associated Press' Beth Harris (via Yahoo Sports).
While top thoroughbreds usually can handle traveling from one track to another, he still has to make the trip and settle in at the New York track. It should go smoothly, but there are no guarantees.
Tough Competition
We have already mentioned that many of the contenders in the Belmont Stakes will be well-rested, and that could be a significant advantage.
However, horses such as Materiality, Frosted, and Carpe Diem are talented runners who have the ability to run excellent races in the Belmont Stakes.
Materiality had won his three previous races before finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby. He is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has had previous success in the Belmont Stakes. Materiality has the kind of tactical speed that should allow him to stay close to the leaders in the first half of the race before turning it on in the second half.
Frosted rallied nicely from near the back of the pack in the Kentucky Derby and made it all the way to fourth place. If he can get off to a better start in the Belmont Stakes, that type of rally could allow him to snare first place. While there are questions about his ability to go the full distance, he should be able to show off his speed and contend for the title.
Carpe Diem won two stakes races earlier this year, and while he did not fire in the Kentucky Derby, he is quite talented. He is another Pletcher trainee and also has the pedigree to run this distance. Carpe Diem likes to stay close to the leaders, and that should put him in an excellent position to launch a run at the most important point in the race.
These are just some of the factors that could cause issues to keep American Pharoah from writing a new chapter in thoroughbred history.
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