Washington Nationals Mock Draft: Last-Minute Picks and Predictions

Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo's shrewd grin up there is that of a man who couldn't be more content to sit out the first round of the 2015 MLB draft, as the Nats must wait until the 58th overall pick to make their first selection.

The Nats forfeited their top pick by signing Max Scherzer this offseason. When a player declines a qualifying offer from his former team—like Scherzer did to Detroit's bid—whichever team signs that player is forced to give up their first pick in the draft, as long as it's outside the top 10. 

The qualifying offer in MLB is a strange and controversial beast that you can read more about here, from ESPN's Jayson Stark. 

But I suspect Washington would have been willing to part ways with several first-round picks, a few million dollars and the naming rights to a mid-level team employee's first-born child to secure Scherzer's 1.51 ERA and 85 strikeouts through six starts this season. 

Regardless, 57 players will be drafted before the Nationals make a selection. Therefore, most of this year's top prospects will already be booking flights when Washington's turn comes up. 

Frame of Reference

The Nats found themselves in a similar situation in 2013. The acquisition of Rafael Soriano in free agency postponed their top pick until No. 68 overall. Revisiting Washington's approach that year could help us extract some of the game plan heading into next Monday's draft. 

After the first round, the MLB draft is like a blindfolded game of darts. So in 2013, when the Nationals' top pick came deep in the second round, they went high upside and low hype with righty Jake Johansen. 

Johansen finished his final season at Dallas Baptist University with a 7-6 record and a 5.40 ERA. Baseball America ranked him the 180th overall prospect in that year's draft. 

"If he had good numbers, he wouldn't have got out of the top 10," Nationals vice president of player personnel Roy Clark said, per The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore at the time. 

The only number that mattered to the Nationals was the 100 mph Johansen could hit on the radar gun. With the selection coming at No. 68 overall, Washington had and still has the luxury of allowing Johansen to develop his secondary pitches without the burden of expectation. 

This concludes today's brief history lesson. We learned two things: First, Rizzo and the Nats will use their 2015 top pick on the highest remaining player on their board, regardless of the his perceived stock. Second, we don't have a clue what that board looks like because it will be entirely different from any predraft rankings. 

The Prospects

In a clever ploy to increase my chances of a correct prediction, we'll review four prospects who could be available for Washington with the 58th pick. For variety's sake, the quartet will be comprised of a pitcher, a catcher, an infielder and an outfielder. 

RHP Josh Staumont, Azusa Pacific University (MLB.com: No. 65, Baseball America: No. 81)

If the Nationals want to employ the same strategy as 2013 and take a pitcher with iffy numbers and a bazooka arm, Staumont can be the Johansen of this year's draft. The righty put up a 3.67 ERA this season, and the 54 walks he issued were the most on his Azusa Pacific squad by a landslide. 

His command needs work, but according to APU head coach Paul Svagdis, Staumont is endowed with some abilities you can't teach. 

"Sometimes God blesses kids in certain ways and Josh has been blessed with the ability to throw 100 miles an hour," Svagdis said, per Kaity Bergquist of The Clause. 

C Lucas Herbert, San Clemente HS (Calif.) (MLB.com: No. 69, Baseball America: No. 52)

Washington's two major league backstops, Wilson Ramos and Jose Lobaton, are both more valuable behind the plate than at it. Since the Nationals are into that sort of thing, Herbert is an option as a ready-made defensive catcher. 

His coach at San Clemente High, Dave Gellatly, said back in April that Herbert called every pitch this season without the coaching staff interjecting once.

"He knows how to get hitters out, he knows how to block balls, he knows when to back pick and he makes us look like great coaches. It’s all him," Gellatly said, per The Orange County Register's Nathan Percy. 

Butch Dill/Associated Press

INF Mikey White, University of Alabama (MLB.com: No. 64, Baseball America: No. 68)

If Washington wants to draft based on need rather than taking the best-available route, Rizzo and Company are liable to take an infielder. 

With Ian Desmond most likely gone after the season, the Nationals need a successor at shortstop. And while Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo lead the pack right now, White's reliable defense and consistent hitting could be attractive in the second round. 

OF Christin Stewart, University of Tennessee (MLB.com: No. 66, Baseball America: No. 77)

Pause for Twilight jokes.

Moving on.

Stewart, a left-handed hitter who Washington could certainly use, batted .311 for Tennessee this season, and he was the only Volunteer to hit double-digit home runs with 15. But in exchange for Stewart's offensive ability, you sacrifice some on the defensive end.

MLB.com's scouting report says he "would profile best in left field defensively" because of a lack of arm strength. But there isn't any room at right or center in D.C. anyway, with Bryce Harper and Michael Taylor at those respective outfield spots. 

The Wrap-Up

Washington rarely botches its top draft pick, but the likelihood of a miss multiplies when your first selection comes in the second round. 

Just look at the Nationals' 2007 draft to get a feel for the crapshoot that takes place after Round 1. Washington had two second-round picks that year, Nos. 67 and 70 overall. They turned into Jordan Zimmermann and Jake Smolinski, respectively. The former would be the ace in most MLB rotations, but the latter has played 52 total games in the majors across nine pro seasons. 

But amid all the uncertainty produced by the upcoming 57-pick wait, former Nationals scouting director and current assistant general manager Kris Kline did learn one thing back in 2013 that is sure to carry over to this year. 

"It's awful," Kline said, per Kilgore. "It was like watching paint dry."