Belmont Stakes 2015: Analyzing Las Vegas Odds and New York's Top Contenders
For Las Vegas—and pretty much the rest of the globe—the 2015 Belmont Stakes in New York is the American Pharoah show.
As it should be, of course. For the second consecutive year, the sport of horse racing has more eyeballs on it than usual thanks to the slim chance a horse can complete the third leg of the Triple Crown and pull off the stunning feat that's not been accomplished in 37 years.
It classifies as "slim" despite the following odds for a bevy of reasons, chief among them a quick turnaround, the longest race to date and rested contenders. Here's a look at how Las Vegas feels on the matter.
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Projected Horses and Odds
| American Pharoah | 5-6 |
| Frosted | 11-2 |
| Materiality | 13-2 |
| Carpe Diem | 12-1 |
| Madefromlucky | 16-1 |
| Mubtaahij | 16-1 |
| Keen Ice | 28-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 22-1 |
| Frammento | 40-1 |
| The Truth or Else | 50-1 |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of May 31.
Analyzing Top Odds
Materiality 13-2
It's never wise to count out a horse who loves to make late charges. This goes double for a horse trained by Todd Pletcher, who chose to send nobody at all to the sloppy conditions of Pimlico, instead hoping for better fortunes in New York.
Materiality finished sixth at the Kentucky Derby before the layoff, a deceptive final placement considering he dashed from far behind late to still place well in the massive field.
There's even more room to operate in New York, hence Las Vegas feeling good about Materiality's chances.
HorseRacingNation.com adds another reason to believe thanks to Pletcher's stellar track record: "His trainer, Todd Pletcher knows how to prepare his horses for the Belmont. He has finished first or second in five of the last eight editions. None of those five were favored, and last year he just missed by a head with Commissioner at odds of 28-1."
Well rested, a late push from Materiality may be just what it takes to best American Pharoah over a tough distance coming off two recent races. Money here is well spent.
Frosted 11-2
Frosted sits in the same boat as Materiality.
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin's horse enjoys the late-dash approach, something he used to great success at Churchill Downs to storm from 15th to fourth despite the huge field.
Again, this one's a shorter event with less clutter, meaning more opportunities for such a horse to make a major push late and give the field everything it can handle.
For those who want to ride with Frosted, understand McLaughlin sounds quite pleased with recent developments, as Emily White of Paulick Report captures:
While the lengthy distance may cause an issue, it's hard to hate Frosted's chances coming off plenty of rest while the top horse in the field preps for his third race in just over a month.
Bets on horse racing are about minimizing risk, and with Frosted, there seems to be little before the post-positions draw.
American Pharoah 5-6
For American Pharoah, the long trek is almost complete.
It started at Churchill Downs, where he found a way to keep pace and kick in the final gears down the stretch to best the large field. Then it continued at Pimlico, where he and jockey Victor Espinoza didn't pull any punches in the slop against the rail, going wire to wire in the short sprint for a win.
Things are more complicated, now, though, with rested contenders looking fresh for the longest leg of the Triple Crown. For trainer Bob Baffert, it sounds like just completing the race will provide a sense of relief.
Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal captured his thoughts: "By next week, everybody will be tired. We just want it to end, you know? We just want to get it done and over with. You can't wait until you get them in the gate, because I know when we get up there, we're going to be flooded with all kinds of media requests."
It will be quite interesting to see how Espinoza wants to approach the race, as he's heading into a historic third attempt at becoming a Triple Crown winner. Fatigue may be an issue, so falling too far behind isn't an option, but neither is attempting a wire-to-wire feat.
Regardless, so far American Pharoah has trumped an elite field, horrific track conditions and a pair of miserable post positions. There's little reason to start doubting now.
Las Vegas sure isn't.
Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified.
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