What to Expect from NFL's Sophomore Quarterback Class

NFL fans in the offseason are like children on Christmas. With no games being played, their focus surrounds the new gifts they have received. These gifts could come via free agency or the draft, but the most important position, quarterback, rarely features quality players hitting the open market.

Because of that, the vast majority of quality starters are high draft picks. This leads to the strong coverage of Jameis Winston, the first overall pick who was selected by the Buccaneers to be their franchise passer, and Marcus Mariota, the second overall pick who hopes to be the face of the Titans.

What's unfortunate is how quickly the year-old gifts are tossed aside. By and large, the media sets standards too high for rookies. Not all Pro Bowl pass-rushers get double-digit sacks in their first year; every All-Pro running back doesn't crack 1,000 yards on his first shot.

There are six passers who either contributed a significant amount of time last season or project to do so this year. Juxtaposing their "buzz" to the Winston and Mariota pair allows us to note a trend in media coverage and fandom: Both sides like the new shiny toy.

That shouldn't mean we should disregard the passers who are still poised to adjust the future of franchises, though. Looking at what they were able to accomplish during their rookie seasons and the changing climates they've been placed in, we'll go player by player, in the order they were selected during the 2014 draft, and give you a heads up on what to expect from the seemingly lost and forgotten.

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

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Blake Bortles was not an opening day starter for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but by the end of September, he was the top quarterback on the depth chart. Now that Bortles has 13 starts under his belt, Jaguars fans hope a lot of the growing pains which were suffered in 2014 are gone.

This week, Pete Prisco of CBS Sports wrote an article explaining his top 20 breakout candidates of the coming season. One of the names listed was Bortles.

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At times last season, he played with as many as five other rookies on offense. That's tough on any quarterback, let alone one who's a rookie himself. The offensive style didn't help either. But there is a new coordinator and Bortles has spent a ton of time working on his mechanics, which needed fixing. That will lead to more accuracy, but the biggest thing will be his experience, as well as those around him.

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While he did play with several rookies last season, that may be a positive in 2015. Building chemistry with the young talents on the team may help his transition into a new offense, as offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch was fired and was replaced by Greg Olson, who was let go by the Oakland Raiders this past offseason.

The team drafted T.J. Yeldon, a legitimate contender to be a starting running back; A.J. Cann, one of the best interior offensive line prospects in this last class and Rashad Greene, a flexible receiver who can play in the slot and outside. When they're combined with a star free-agent signing in Julius Thomas and a healthy Allen Robinson, last year's second-round pick who only started eight games for Jacksonville, there are plenty of variables which could make Bortles' life much easier this season.

Matt Harmon of Football Guys has studied receiver statistics more than anyone else in the football community. He's compiled numbers which suggest that Robinson was ranked second for rookie receivers against man coverage, only falling behind Odell Beckham Jr., who made the Pro Bowl. Adding that threat alone for eight more games, Bortles can reach closer to his peak: an 85 percent version of Andrew Luck.

Expect: A jump to a mid-level quarterback

Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns

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Taking into account his positive and negative traits, Johnny Manziel is one of the more interesting test cases in the NFL. Manziel doesn't have a Brett Favre-like arm or the accuracy of Peyton Manning, but he did show backyard football ability while playing for Texas A&M.

Unfortunately, on paper, where those traits come from is hard to pin down. Sure, he ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at the combine, which is good for the 79th percentile at the quarterback position according to Mock Draftable, but when he turns into a runner, he should be graded on the scale of a ball-carrier. Michael Vick ran a 4.33 40-yard dash, and he still never put together enough on the ground to make a deep playoff run in his prime. For the most part, mobile quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Steve Young, those who have "play-making ability" and won championships, all learned to throw accurate strikes while on the move.

Vick was never able to do so, even with generational talents of foot speed and arm strength. With lesser tools, not even taking into account potential off-field issues, it's hard to imagine Manziel will develop into one of the top quarterbacks in the league just because he's willing to bail out of the pocket.

Though everyone should take into account sample sizes when looking at statistics, Manziel's rookie season, which featured a quarterback rating of 42.0, is one of the worst in recent memory. As Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal tweeted out, Josh McCown, who last season led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the worst record in football, was already taking first-team snaps with the Cleveland Browns over Manziel, despite the fact he has only had a few months to study the playbook.

Is this a motivational ploy for the Browns to push Manziel? I'm not totally sure, but the possibility of the second-year first-round pick not seeing the field because McCown, a soon-to-be 36-year-old journeyman, has surpassed the high-variance passer has some smoke to it. That should frighten the Cleveland fan base. At this point, it's not a lock that we see Manziel throw a pass in 2015.

Expect: A push to see playing time

Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings

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The most valuable contract over the past several seasons in the NFL has been Russell Wilson's. A franchise quarterback taken in the third round, he could see a per-year increase of over $20 million when he signs his new deal. It's fair to say that young quarterbacks are still the most important pieces to build a franchise around. Since that 2012 class that featured Andrew Luck and Wilson, though, the best rookie season at the position has come from Teddy Bridgewater, who was taken with the last selection of the first round in 2014.

At only 21 years old at the time, Bridgewater made his first start with the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4 against the Atlanta Falcons. Minnesota won in a 41-28 effort, and its rookie quarterback nearly cracked a quarterback rating of 100 points. Finishing the season fewer than 100 yards short of the 3,000-yard mark and hitting a quarterback rating of 85.2 over the course of 12 starts, Bridgewater looked ready for the NFL out of the gate.

He's very similar to Matt Ryan—he's very efficient, and his deep ball isn't great, but with timing and accuracy, he may develop a niche route in the vertical game. For example, Ryan doesn't have a gun, but he's the best in the league throwing a post route, according to Pro Football Focus. There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason as to why he's particularly good at throwing that ball other than repetition, as he's the worst at throwing corner routes, the inverse of a post, per the same metric.

If Bridgewater puts the time in, it would greatly help his ability to keep defenses balanced. If running back Adrian Peterson, who currently isn't at Vikings organized team activities, does suit up for Minnesota this year, passing lanes should also open up as defenses tend to stack the box against the former MVP of the league.

The second-year Louisville product should be viewed as a franchise quarterback, and it shouldn't take long for him to break into the NFL's tier of superstars. Bridgewater might be the next passer following in the footsteps of Luck and Wilson.

Expect: A rise into the conversation with the best young talents in the league

Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders

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Derek Carr is the brother of David Carr, the former first overall pick by the Houston Texans who is largely considered a "bust." The tax on his last name may prove to be a huge value for the Oakland Raiders, who took him in the second round last season. They thought enough of him to throw him out as the Week 1 starter during his rookie year and for good reason.

On paper, Carr has the same skill set as Aaron Rodgers, as Carr is a slender-build passer with both wheels and a gun. On the flip side, though, Carr doesn't have any of the polish that Rodgers currently possesses. Some of this comes from his surroundings. In college, he shifted from a pro-style offense to a screen-happy scheme, and last season with the Raiders, his top receiver was James Jones, a former target of Rodgers who was cut and is no longer in the league.

Carr's stat sheet doesn't help him too much, either. His 5.5 yards per pass ranked behind only one passer who threw over 100 attempts in 2014: Michael Vick, who is currently a free agent. As mentioned before, though, Carr didn't have much help in the receiving unit. With the fourth overall pick, Oakland selected Amari Cooper, the top receiver in this past class out of Alabama.

With the additions of Cooper and Michael Crabtree, a former top-10 pick, new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave should make Carr's life much easier. Last season was almost a throwaway year, as Carr's development couldn't be separated from the talent on the field with him. This year, the staff should at least be able to get a clear read on where the Fresno State Bulldog stands.

Expect: A make or break season

Jimmy Garoppolo, New England Patriots

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Due to Tom Brady's four-game "Deflategate" suspension, Jimmy Garoppolo is now thrown into the limelight. Last season, he saw playing time in six games, but only threw 27 attempts, as he was a reserve player. Still, in limited time, he cracked the 100-point quarterback rating mark for his rookie season.

Because of the limited sample size, adding his preseason attempts into the mix might help with his rookie evaluation. Luckily, I was able to chart his throws by air distance and direction for Draft Breakdown. His flaws and strengths become apparent with the data: He's very good at throwing underneath passes, but he struggles with deeper attempts.

His small frame and compact passing motion brought comparisons to Drew Brees, but Brees, in his prime, also had a cannon, something Garoppolo currently hasn't displayed. For the most part, he's an unknown developmental prospect. Judging a quarterback fewer than 30 regular-season throws removed from playing on the FCS level in college is a tricky business, but seeing up to four starts next season should give the NFL a better idea of who he is.

I say "up to" because Brady is still in the process of appealing the league to drop or scale back his suspension. ESPN's Adam Shefter reported that the hearing will take place on June 23rd, about two and a half months before the regular season begins. At this point, though, the Patriots need to treat the Eastern Illinois product like he's going to play a fourth of the season for their squad.

Expect: A grasp on who he is going to develop into at the professional level

Zach Mettenberger, Tennessee Titans

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Zach Mettenberger is a fairly interesting quarterback. Had he played in the NFL 10 or 15 years ago, he might have been a first-round pick. He's a tall passer with a strong arm, but the league has since evolved into a game of efficiency, not vertical throwing.

Mettenberger also may have taken a hit on draft day for his dismissal from the University of Georgia and his ACL tear, which ended his senior season. A mixture of all of those narratives is why he wound up being a late Day 3 selection. Still, one would assume, with the cutthroat nature of the NFL, that if he had the talent of a first-round pick, the Titans would have treated him like one.

He started six games for the team, posting a mild quarterback rating of 83.4 for his rookie stretch. That didn't deter head coach Ken Whisenhunt from stating that if Tennessee were to take Marcus Mariota, that he would be a Day 1 starter. NFL.com's Conor Orr reported that he did just that in March, a month before the draft kicked off in Chicago.

When Mariota was selected by the team with the second overall pick, there seemed to be mixed news coming from the Mettenberger camp. At first, ESPN's Chris Mortensen stated that Mettenberger's agent demanded a trade during the draft weekend, per Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Shortly after, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network dismissed the report, alleging that Mettenberger merely wanted to compete for the starting role, something Whisenhunt said wouldn't happen if Mariota was the selection.

As of recently, by way of Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean, Whisenhunt still publicly handcuffed himself to Mariota, stating he'd give him "the majority of the reps." Mettenberger is a developmental project with plenty of flaws, but his strengths are clear as day. It's going to be hard for him to get better on the bench, but the Titans seem to have already turned the franchise over to Mariota. Unless Mettenberger is traded before the regular season, as Ryan Mallett was last year, it's hard to imagine he sees the field if the Titans' new first-round pick stays healthy.

Expect: A combination of frustration and disappointment as he holds a clipboard

The Rest

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Logan Thomas (6)

The other drafted quarterbacks from the 2014 class don't pose very interesting storylines. Two passers, Tajh Boyd and Garrett Gilbert, are already on their second NFL franchises. Boyd didn't make the Jets' 53-man roster out of camp and played in the FXFL last season before earning a camp bid with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Gilbert, on the other hand, jumped from the Rams to the Patriots, where he is now a developmental prospect behind Garoppolo.

One 2014 draft pick, Keith Wenning, is a free agent. Wenning was drafted by Baltimore on Day 3 but was cut this offseason. There are five passers who are still on their original teams, but, for the most part, they are all third options on their rosters.

AJ McCarron was a reserve player after he recovered from the injury that kept him inactive for the majority of his rookie year. Davis Fales, Aaron Murray and Tom Savage also are long shots to see the field in 2015 due to the passers in front of them. Logan Thomas was slated to start a game last season with the Cardinals, but was quickly replaced mid-week by Ryan Lindley, effectively making Thomas the fourth-ranked passer on the Arizona depth chart for the 2014 season.

Thomas and Savage have the best chances to develop into starting passers down the line, just based on their raw skills. But based on what they were able to accomplish last season, it would be logical to assume they need more development than just one offseason before they're thrown into the fire. Unless injuries force this list of passers into starting roles, don't expect to see grass stains on their jerseys this coming season.