Triple Crown 2015: Assessing American Pharoah's Odds of Winning Belmont Stakes

All eyes will be fixed on American Pharoah in the 2015 Belmont Stakes as the impressive colt aims to become the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years.

Since Affirmed last claimed horse racing's most prestigious honor back in 1978, a total of 13 horses have made the trip to Belmont Park with the same aspirations—each left empty-handed. Fatigue, rested opposition and a lengthy 1 ½-mile race stand in the way of every Triple Crown hopeful, and that trend continues this year.

Although, there's reason to believe Pharoah will be the horse to finally buck the trend of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners failing to cross Belmont Park's finish line first. Vegas oddsmakers appear to agree, as Pharoah is heralded as the odds-on favorite heading into the race, according to Odds Shark.

Here's a look at the odds for the entire field:

Horse	Odds
American Pharoah	1-1
Frosted	5-1
Materiality	15-2
Mubtaahij	14-1
Carpe Diem	16-1
Madefromlucky	22-1
Keen Ice	25-1
Divining Rod	25-1
Tale of Verve	28-1
Conquest Curlinate	33-1
War Story	33-1
Frammento	50-1

There are plenty of reasons why both oddsmakers and horse racing enthusiasts have faith in Pharoah entering the Belmont Stakes. Let's take a look back at the colt's performances at Churchill Downs and Pimlico to better assess his chances of winning the third jewel of the Triple Crown.

Tasked with starting far out wide in the Kentucky Derby at the No. 18 position, Pharoah would actually start from the No. 16 gate due to scratches. From that outside spot, he was forced to make up significant ground early in the race to pass traffic and settle in near the front of the pack.

While his early run to the front was successful, another issue came into play for Pharoah: He needed to run three wide off the rail to maintain his position throughout the race. That added much more length for the colt, and lesser horses would have lost the stamina to make a late-race push after running such a long stretch. Not Pharoah.

Jockey Victor Espinoza asked him to run around the final turn, and somehow Pharoah found the endurance to charge to the front of the pack and outlast the hard-running Firing Line to gain the win. Take a look back at the race to gain a refreshing perspective:

That race showed us Pharoah has the endurance to flourish in a longer race like the Belmont Stakes.

In the Preakness, Pharoah had an entirely different obstacle to deal with. He was tasked with starting from the ominous No. 1 gate—a starting position that had yielded just one winner (Tabasco Cat in 1994) since 1961. Getting pinned against the rail and stuck behind traffic was a very real threat for Pharoah at Pimlico.

Despite breaking a bit inside, Espinoza was able to get Pharoah back on track quickly. He asked the colt to run, and Pharoah complied, hugging the rail and accelerating past traffic to move out into the lead. That kind of early charge would hurt the endurance of many horses, but Pharoah once again proved to be extraordinary.

After maintaining his lead position throughout the race, Espinoza asked Pharoah to run once more time around the final turn. The end result was astonishing, as the colt pulled away from the lead pack with ease to go on to win by a full seven lengths. Here's another look at the race in its entirety:

The Preakness only reaffirmed the notion that Pharoah has remarkable stamina.

So, we can go ahead and argue that Pharoah is easily the most talented horse in the Belmont Stakes field. However, concerns over fatigue continue to linger. Well, luckily for Pharoah, he's in great hands prior to the Triple Crown's third jewel, as famed trainer Bob Baffert will ensure the colt is primed for the race.

Affirmed jockey Steve Cauthen recently weighed in on Pharoah and Baffert heading into the Belmont Stakes during an interview with Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal:

"

Like everyone said, he was so impressive in the Arkansas Derby, and just the way Bob Baffert was speaking about him before the Derby, he wasn't saying it to the press—but you just had a feel with the undertones—he really felt American Pharoah was quite a bit better than Dortmund...He's a top-class horse. Beautiful mover. Good confirmation. He obviously has always been that as 2-year-old champion. I think he's going to the Belmont with a team that's been there before. It's not nothing new for them. I think Bob's kind of backed off, taking it easy trying to train him and keep his energy up.

"

Baffert's experience in this situation is key for Pharoah. The trainer has previously entered three horses with Triple Crown aspirations in the Belmont Stakes—none emerged victorious. Baffert's years of experience and knowledge gained from those previous failures will certainly help the trainer in Pharoah's preparation for Belmont.

We still have the issues of the post draw and pre-race workouts to deal with, but the way things are looking right now, there's no reason to think the Triple Crown drought will last another year.