UFC Fight Night 67: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
The UFC continues its onslaught of events as the summer heats up, and the next stop is Brazil. UFC Fight Night 67 hits South America on Saturday with an excellent welterweight main event.
No. 4-ranked contender Carlos Condit returns from injury to headline opposite No. 12-ranked Thiago Alves. The two veterans have perfect styles for an action-packed main event. The winner will put himself into title contention, and those high stakes make it a can't-miss fight.
The co-main event features a Top 10 featherweight clash, a No. 8-ranked Charles Oliveira takes on No. 9-ranked Nik Lentz.
Where is the value on this six-fight main card? We will take a look at the odds and forecast who will be the outright winners at UFC Fight Night 67.
Wendell Oliveira (-125) vs. Darren Till (-105)
Undefeated prospect Darren Till makes his UFC debut against Wendell Oliveira in the opening main card contest.
Oliveira's UFC debut did not go as planned. Santiago Ponzinibbio knocked him out in just 80 seconds last September.
As the odds suggest, this is a close matchup. And a lot of that has to do with the unknown factors. Oliveira's UFC career is just one minute, 20 seconds long, and Till has yet to debut. Their work on the regional circuit can be misleading. It looks like it could be a striker vs. grappler matchup.
If that ends up being the case, take Oliveira. Till will struggle to get off his back against the Brazilian.
This is a good opening fight, and if you feel certain someone is going to come out on top, the odds show value on either man. However, with too many unknowns, you should skip this one. It's guesswork.
Prediction: Oliveira by decision
The Play: Skip the fight
Norman Parke (-250) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (+195)
This should be a fun lightweight scrap. Parke is coming off his first loss in the UFC, and Trinaldo has won back-to-back fights.
Parke is more than a 2-1 favorite, but that is an accurate reflection of this fight. Trinaldo is a live dog. He fights aggressively and has a solid ground game. If he can put Parke's back against the canvas, he can easily finish this fight.
Parke has looked solid throughout his career, but he still lacks the signature win.
Trinaldo's cardio is not the best, and that is why Parke should win by decision. However, you can take a shot on Trinaldo at these odds. Not only does he have an excellent shot at winning outright, but we have seen some questionable hometown decisions for Brazilians in the past. It's worth the risk.
Prediction: Parke by decision
The Play: A small play on Trinaldo
Francimar Barroso (+215) vs. Ryan Jimmo (-275)
This is another matchup with curious odds. Barroso is more than a 2-1 dog in the fight, but he has been performing well in recent fights. He is coming off a split-decision loss to Hans Stringer, while Jimmo has alternated wins and losses in his last six fights.
Jimmo has been fighting the better competition. That much is for sure. This is a step up for the Brazilian, and how he manages that will say a lot about his ceiling in this division.
The American's abilities make him an interesting opponent for anyone in this division, especially the mid-tier fighters and below. He is well-rounded with knockout power, but he has a propensity to grind out fights. In the heat and humidity of Brazil, that could play to his advantage.
Jimmo is the likely winner based on his level of competition and fighting style, but Barroso is not out of his depth here. He's just not worth the play.
Prediction: Jimmo by decision
The Play: Skip the fight
K.J. Noons (+105) vs. Alex Oliveira (-135)
Alex Oliveira put on a fun fight in his last outing against top prospect Gilbert Burns but came out on the losing end of his UFC debut. He returns to take on K.J. Noons.
Noons hasn't lost in the Octagon since UFC 160 in May 2013 but is coming off a no-contest against Daron Cruickshank.
I was a bit surprised Noons was the dog in this fight, but the odds are still close. Oliveira just has not proved himself in the same manner that Noons has.
This is a good matchup for Noons. Oliveira threw down with Burns, and if he does the same with Noons, he is likely to get clipped.
Noons' striking technique is good, and he has power. Oliveira will overcommit and get blasted. Noon's accuracy will be the ultimate difference.
Prediction: Noons by TKO in the second round
The Play: Take a shot on Noons
Nik Lentz (+220) vs. Charles Oliveira (-280)
If you told me last year Lentz would be a 2-1 dog to Oliveira, I would have laughed. Not that I doubt Oliveira's status as the favorite, but stylistically it is a much closer fight.
But Oliveira has looked outstanding lately. He is on a three-fight win streak with victories over Andy Ogle, Hatsu Hioki and Jeremy Stephens. His only losses at featherweight have come against Cub Swanson and Frankie Edgar.
Lentz's only loss at 145 pounds came at the hands of Chad Mendes.
The American is very much in this fight. His submission defense, not his wrestling, will be the key. If he puts Oliveira on the mat, he will be in constant danger. It is unlikely he will be able to land much offense while Oliveira is threatening with sweeps and submissions.
Lentz could win, but I don't feel confident playing him. Oliveira is too dangerous on the ground and has been improving on the feet as well. He has too many ways to take out Lentz. Oliveira will continue his outstanding performances this Saturday.
Prediction: Oliveira via submission in the second round
The Play: Avoid the action
Thiago Alves (+220) vs. Carlos Condit (-280)
Condit returns from injury to meet Alves in the main event. The Natural Born Killer is a former UFC interim welterweight champion, and Alves is a former title challenger. Both men want another run at the gold.
Stylistically, this is a great matchup. It is great matchmaking.
Condit's stand-up has improved greatly over the years to match his ground work. His footwork and head movement are excellent, and he attacks in every way possible. Punches, kicks, knees and elbows are all in play.
Alves' striking is dangerous as well. He has good power, and his leg kicks can be game-changers.
Condit's movement and cardio are the difference-makers here. Alves won't be able to corner him or connect flush. And as the fight moves deeper and deeper, Condit's chances only grow. His range on his feet will keep him out of danger, and he'll keep a high pace that Alves cannot match.
Once in the deeper portions of the fight, Condit will find a finish. I feel confident enough to play Condit at the nearly 3-1 odds. Continue to watch the odds, though; if they get any steeper, there may not be value on him.
Prediction: Condit by TKO in the fourth round
The Play: Feel confident in Condit, but watch the odds