Belmont Stakes 2015: Latest Las Vegas Odds for American Pharoah and Contenders
Las Vegas feels the same way most of the globe does about the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
American Pharoah's the favorite.
Bob Baffert's crown jewel follows in the footsteps of California Chrome last year, going to New York for horse racing's version of a marathon at 1 ½ miles a legitimate threat to win the Triple Crown and end a 37-year drought.
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Then again, Las Vegas likes a few others horses, too, which makes sense given the lack of rest for American Pharoah and length of the trek.
For the second year in a row, the Belmont will seize the sporting world for a day and not let go.
Projected Horses and Odds
| American Pharoah | 1-1 |
| Frosted | 5-1 |
| Materiality | 15-2 |
| Carpe Diem | 16-1 |
| Madefromlucky | 22-1 |
| Mubtaahij | 14-1 |
| Divining Rod | 25-1 |
| Keen Ice | 25-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 28-1 |
| Conquest Curlinate | 33-1 |
| War Story | 33-1 |
| Frammento | 50-1 |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of May 28.
Analyzing Odds for Top Projected Horses
Frosted (5-1)
A horse who favors long distances and prefers to come from behind will always catch the eye of oddsmakers ahead of the Belmont.
Such is the case with trainer Kiaran McLaughlin's Frosted, who sat out the Preakness Stakes after a strong showing at the Kentucky Derby—strong as in the elite horse went from 15th to fourth down the stretch.
It makes sense, then, McLaughlin wishes the race went a different route.
"We ran good breaking from a wide post in an 18-horse field and going six wide on the far turn, and we wish there were more pace," McLaughlin said, per BloodHorse.com (via ESPN.com). "He ran a great race, but we were a little disappointed. We wanted to win."
Let's not stop there—if jockey Joel Rosario rides Frosted again, keep in mind he's the guy who rode Tonalist to victory in New York last year, ending California Chrome's Triple Crown bid.
In short, it's easy to see why oddsmakers love Frosted, and bettors should too.
Materiality (15-2)
Any Todd Pletcher horse seems a favorite of all heading to New York, as the trainer seems to always do well at the Belmont.
Such is the case this year, too, especially with a contender such as Materiality well rested after skipping the Preakness Stakes.
For many, Materiality will prove the thorn in American Pharoah's side, as Sports Illustrated's Tim Layden muses:
It makes sense considering Materiality hit the gigantic field at Churchill Downs as one of the least experienced horses and still came from behind late to finish sixth.
In a smaller field on fresh legs with elite closing speed, there should be an opening for Materiality to make a strong push late, heightened by the odds others—but especially American Pharoah thanks to a grueling schedule—perhaps fade down the stretch.
A bet against Pletcher in New York seems silly. Materiality puts emphasis on this notion.
American Pharoah (1-1)
Is there any reason to doubt American Pharoah, other than the quick turnaround and his work rate?
American Pharoah didn't have a ton of races under his hooves entering Churchill Downs, where he ran out of an unfavorable post position and still came from behind to win. He then rode the rail at Pimlico in a wire-to-wire victory in the mud, putting to bed any questions about his ability to handle a quick turnaround.
Now it sounds as if American Pharoah feels just fine ahead of the Belmont.
"He's moving like his fluid self," said Baffert, per Josh Abner of the Associated Press. "He came back the right way. That's Pharoah. That's the way, when he's on his game, that's the way he looks. Just really happy with the way he went."
Post position is something bettors may want to worry about, but again, it didn't matter much in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Much of the credit goes to jockey Victor Espinoza, who will attempt his third stab at a Triple Crown.
In a smaller field than the Kentucky Derby over a longer distance, Espinoza will be able to run his own race no matter the post position. As the last two races and recent practices seem to show, American Pharoah isn't close to running out of gas, either.
There are better payouts, sure, but sometimes betting with the favorite is the best idea.
Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified.
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