Belmont Stakes Odds: Predictions for American Pharoah and Top Contenders
Roughly one week out from the 2015 Belmont Stakes, public opinion has apparently solidified for sentimental favorite American Pharoah. The Triple Crown hopeful was inevitably going to receive the most action, even as the 37-year drought suggests his true odds of winning the Belmont don't match up with his actual chances.
Nevertheless, Pharoah's odds have stayed at even money for over a week now, with the likes of Frosted and Materiality seeing their odds grow longer in that span. Bob Baffert's horse isn't facing a particularly deep field, but as the only horse running in all three legs of the Triple Crown, he's at a natural disadvantage as well.
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Taking a look at the updated odds via Odds Shark, let's handicap the field and make some early predictions for the win, place and show, going in reverse order and dissecting what needs to happen for these horses to win.
| American Pharoah | 1-1 |
| Frosted | 5-1 |
| Materiality | 15-2 |
| Mubtaahij | 14-1 |
| Carpe Diem | 16-1 |
| Madefromlucky | 22-1 |
| Keen Ice | 25-1 |
| Divining Rod | 25-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 28-1 |
| Conquest Curlinate | 33-1 |
| Frammento | 50-1 |
Race Predictions
Show: American Pharoah
Though this would be a disappointment to non-partisan racing fans, third place would actually be an upgrade over recent Triple Crown hopefuls. The past three Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners have registered a DNF (Big Brown, 2008), pre-race scratch (I'll Have Another, 2012) and fourth-place finish (California Chrome, 2014).
Nevertheless, Pharoah's trainer, Baffert, has remained optimistic throughout. Baffert has gone through this process before, with Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and War Emblem (2002) all falling short at Belmont after winning the first two legs. Jockey Victor Espinoza also rode Chrome last summer, giving Pharoah an experienced bunch. On Wednesday, the horse ran for the first time since his Preakness victory and encouraged Baffert with his form, according to the Associated Press' Josh Abner, via Yahoo Sports:
"He's moving like his fluid self. He came back the right way. That's Pharoah. That's the way, when he's on his game, that's the way he looks. Just really happy with the way he went.
He makes my job easier because he is such a good horse. Today went pretty good, he was pretty spectacular out there.
"
As Abner reports, Pharoah breezed five furlongs in 1:00.40, with splits of 12.20, 24.00 and 35.80 for the half-mile run. We have no way of knowing Pharoah's real fatigue level until race day, but Sports Illustrated's Tim Layden, who was at the workout, notes that Pharoah's weight has held steady over the past five weeks, an encouraging sign for his overall fitness:
At this level, Pharoah should avoid a total disaster. Still, the Triple Crown has entered the type of hallowed "unbreakable record" territory, and the plethora of horses entering the race on five weeks' rest is a huge disadvantage for Pharoah. For now, seeing is believing when it comes to the Triple Crown.
Place: Carpe Diem
One of the top favorites at Churchill Downs, Carpe Diem disappointed with a 10th-place finish at the Derby. While Todd Pletcher has not had much success at the Run for the Roses, he has won the Belmont twice with Rags to Riches in 2007 and Palace Malice in 2013.
The latter horse finished 12th in the Derby before the five-week rest helped him storm back at Belmont, which certainly bodes well for Carpe Diem. In fact, of the past five Belmont winners, none have placed at the Derby, and three did not even enter:
| 2014 | Tonalist | Did not race |
| 2013 | Palace Malice | 12th place |
| 2012 | Union Rags | 7th place |
| 2011 | Ruler on Ice | Did not race |
| 2010 | Drosselmeyer | Did not race |
Pletcher's horse had won three of four career graded stakes races before the Derby, with his lone loss coming in a second-place showing at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November. Carpe Diem's Blue Grass Stakes victory (Grade 1) a month before the Derby was one of the more impressive tuneup races by any of the top contenders, and it seems more reflective of his true form.
Jockey John Velazquez, who rode Carpe Diem at Churchill Downs, has won the Belmont twice before in 2007 and 2012. Carpe Diem should receive more betting action given his pedigree and juicy odds, as he's a legitimate threat to crash Pharoah's Triple Crown hopes.
Win: Frosted
The horse with the second-shortest odds behind Pharoah is also probably the real favorite at Belmont. Kiaran McLaughlin's horse will have Joel Rosario in the saddle, the jockey who rode Tonalist to the Belmont victory last year and thwarted California Chrome's Triple Crown bid.
Like several other horses in the field, Frosted skipped Pimlico and has been working out in New York during Pharoah's exhausting stretch of racing. According to the Blood-Horse's Karen Johnson, Frosted went through a more casual gallop workout on May 22, going out at 1:13.90 over six furlongs. Video of the workout is below:
Johnson also notes that his next scheduled workout is May 29, eight days before the race. Frosted doesn't have nearly the resume of a challenger like Carpe Diem, as he's won just one graded stakes race, the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 4. However, he's never finished outside of the top four and was one of the strongest closing horses at Churchill Downs despite finishing fourth.
Like Tonalist last year, there's a growing consensus that the Triple Crown hopeful's top challenger could be the fresher and more capable horse at the moment. While Frosted couldn't beat a fully rested Pharoah head-to-head, he stands a much better chance in a longer race that will take a toll on the favorite.
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