Belmont Stakes 2015: Predictions Based on Latest Odds for Elmont Race

All eyes will be on American Pharoah in the 2015 Belmont Stakes as the colt attempts to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. Will the impressive yet fatigued colt prevail, or will he be upset by one of the field's fresh-legged contenders?

Pharoah showed some phenomenal stamina during a grueling Kentucky Derby and a muddy Preakness Stakes. He overcame several obstacles—namely poor starting positions—along the way to take the first two jewels of the Triple Crown. However, with fatigue setting in, and a 1 ½-mile race on the horizon, the odds are stacked against the colt once more.

Adding further difficulties to Pharoah's Triple Crown bid is a strong Belmont field that is chock-full of well-rested horses. In fact, of the current 12 contenders expected to take the track at Elmont, Pharoah is the only horse to have raced at both Churchill Downs and Pimlico.

With all of those factors in mind, here's a look at some early predictions for the Belmont Stakes along with corresponding odds for every contender.

Belmont Stakes Odds and Predictions

Finish	Horse	Odds
1	American Pharoah	1-1
2	Materiality	15-2
3	Frosted	5-1
4	Carpe Diem	16-1
5	Tale of Verve	28-1
6	Divining Rod	25-1
7	Mubtaahij	14-1
8	Madefromlucky	22-1
9	Conquest Curlinate	33-1
10	Keen Ice	25-1
11	War Story	33-1
12	Frammento	50-1

All Belmont Stakes odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Predictions Analysis

Garry Jones/Associated Press

That's right, American Pharoah will become the first Triple Crown winner in 27 years—and that's not just wishful thinking.

Arguably the most talented horse in the field, Pharaoh possesses a dominant blend of early acceleration, the ability to maintain a brisk pace through long distances, extraordinary stamina and blazing closing speed. All of those attributes were on display at both Churchill Downs and Pimlico, but let's take his run in the Preakness for example.

Starting from the ominous No. 1 gate, Pharoah hugged the rail and accelerated past the thick of the traffic, quickly finding himself in the front of the pack. Jockey Victor Espinoza slowed him up briefly to salvage stamina, but he never relinquished his lead. Finally, the colt was asked to run following the final turn, and he hit another gear, easily pulling away from the lead pack to win by seven lengths.

Take a look back at the race to refresh your memory:

Sure, Pharoah will be more fatigued at Belmont, and duplicating that performance in the 1 ½-mile race will be a daunting task; however, it would be foolish to discount Pharoah's stamina at this point. Even after three races in five weeks, there still may not be a better horse down the final stretch.

Challenging Pharoah will be Materiality.

The colt had a rough start in the Kentucky Derby but still managed to finish in sixth place. He trailed by a great margin at Churchill Downs but began to run hard with roughly a half mile remaining. He swiftly passed the bulk of contenders to finish just 7 ¾ lengths behind Pharoah. It could be argued that a better start would have put Materiality in the mix down the final stretch.

Take a look at how dominant Materiality can be after a better start. Here's a glance back at his sparkling performance in the Florida Derby:

Trainer Todd Pletcher opted to hold the colt out of the Preakness, deciding to focus on the Belmont Stakes instead. That gives Materiality an advantage, as he received over one month of rest prior to taking the track at Elmont. That will be a dangerous element combined with his ability to finish strong.

Rounding out the top three will be Frosted.

This colt had a similar situation to Materiality in the Kentucky Derby but actually had a better finish. The rest of the pack forced Frosted to the rear early at Churchill Downs, but he recovered beautifully and charged past plenty of strong contenders to finish fourth. He may be the next best closer in the Belmont Stakes behind Pharoah.

So, why is he predicted to finish third? Well, Frosted is also a bit unpredictable out of the gate. The Kentucky Derby wasn't the only race in which he started slowly, as he produced a similar performance in the Wood Memorial. While he finished strong and won the race by two lengths, he had to do so by rallying from the back.

Take a look back at the race to see for yourself:

That's a common theme with Frosted, and in a larger and longer race like the Belmont Stakes, that could hurt his chances. It will be difficult for this colt to start from the rear and come back to overtake a talented field in a longer race. Expect him to make a strong charge in the end, but it won't be enough to send him to the front.