Triple Crown 2015: American Pharoah Will Cement Legacy with Belmont Stakes Win
In a little over a week, American Pharoah will have a chance to cement his legacy as one of the best thoroughbreds in the history of North American horse racing.
The three-year-old son of Pioneerof the Nile is the runaway favorite in the upcoming Belmont Stakes—he's an even-money favorite, according to Odds Shark—and both he and his rider, Victor Espinoza, have a chance to exercise some major demons.
Pharoah will be looking to rid the horse racing world of the 37-year drought it's experienced since Affirmed last won the Triple Crown back in 1978. Meanwhile, Espinoza is taking his third crack at a Triple Crown and his second in as many years—he was unsuccessful in both of his prior attempts.
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Pharoah's trainer, Bob Baffert, will look to have the young colt firing on all cylinders next month as he gears up to take a shot at making history, but there's a whole lot more than just the Triple Crown riding on this year's Belmont.
In the sections that follow, I'll break down the greater importance of the race and the actual race itself. Let's get started.
The Scenario
Coming in behind the Triple Crown possibilities, we have arguably the second-most intriguing storyline of the racing season. As many of you may or may not have been made aware, American Pharoah will be retiring at the end of the 2015 season.
The Zayat Stables-owned colt had his breeding rights sold to Coolmore a week ago for an undisclosed—but presumably massive—amount of money, per Ray Paulick:
So Pharoah has precious few races left in his career—maybe just one if he wins—and although he may race for larger purses—the Breeders' Cup Classic is still a possibility if he loses at Belmont—no race quite carries the same weight of this one. For Zayat and the Coolmore Stud breeding operation, this race could propel AP's stud fee to astronomical heights for his first year of standing.
Though it's predicted by esteemed Lexington-based bloodstock agent Byron Rogers (via Bloodhorse.com) that Pharoah's stud fee should fall somewhere in the $75,000 range for his first year, it's not unreasonable to think that Zayat and Coolmore could shoot for somewhere more in the $100,000 range if he brings home a Triple Crown.
As far as North American horses go, a $100,000 stud fee would place Pharoah in or around the top five, assuming the same dollar amounts from this season.
| 1 | Tapit | $300,000 |
| 2 | War Front | $150,000 |
| 3 | Medaglia d'Oro | $125,000 |
| 4 | American Pharoah (a) | $100,000 |
| 5 | Distorted Humor | $100,000 |
| 6 | Kitten's Joy | $100,000 |
| 7 | Malibu Moon | $95,000 |
| 8 | Bernardini | $85,000 |
| 9 | Giant's Causeway | $85,000 |
| 10 | Speightstown | $80,000 |
| 11 | American Pharoah (b) | $75,000 |
A win in the Belmont would likely bring Pharoah's racing career to an end, but it could put him in two very exclusive clubs.
First, and most obvious, he'd become just the 12th horse to win the Triple Crown. More important for Zayat and Coolmore, though, is the fact that Pharoah could join Tapit, War Front, Medaglia d'Oro, Distorted Humor and Kitten's Joy as the only horses in North America raking in $100,000-plus per foal.
From there, if he puts out a few quality runners, Pharoah's legacy, and his stud fee, will improve exponentially.
So, beyond the obvious implications for the fans, this race holds a lot of weight for a lot of reasons.
The Race
Sure, all that business about, well, business, is important, but what about the on-track product?
Well, a Triple Crown win sure would help to place American Pharoah firmly in thoroughbred racing folklore for the foreseeable future.
Each year, despite the fact that he hasn't raced in over 30 years, Affirmed is one of the most mentioned horses in the lead-up to the Triple Crown. That trend continues right on up through the Belmont, too, as the inevitable mentions of Affirmed creep back into the conversation after yet another failed attempt to capture the third jewel of the Triple Crown.
American Pharoah has a chance to rewrite the narrative from this point forward, but it won't be an easy task to fulfill.
The superstar colt will have his hands full at Belmont next month, as this year's field at the event is one of the strongest in recent memory.
| American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | 1-1 |
| Frosted | Kiaran McLaughlin | 5-1 |
| Materiality | Todd Pletcher | 15-2 |
| Mubtaahij | Michael De Kock | 14-1 |
| Carpe Diem | Todd Pletcher | 16-1 |
| Madefromlucky | Todd Pletcher | 22-1 |
| Keen Ice | Dale Romans | 25-1 |
| Divining Rod | Arnaud Delacour | 25-1 |
| Tale of Verve | Dallas Stewart | 28-1 |
| Conquest Curlinate | Mark Casse | 33-1 |
| War Story | Thomas Amoss | 33-1 |
| Frammento | Nicholas Zito | 50-1 |
No less than six horses have a chance to win this race, and we have all the reason in the world to believe that two such horses could do just that.
Materiality and Frosted pose the biggest threats to Pharoah on race day.
Materiality, an Afleet Alex colt, is the lesser of the two threats, but he owns wins in two big races—the Islamorada and the Florida Derby—and a sixth-place finish last time out in the Derby.
His trainer, Todd Pletcher, and the Alto Racing Stables ownership group opted to skip the Preakness in favor of the Belmont. Fortunately for this young colt, he's been working well at Belmont as we get closer to the Derby.
Materiality's most recent workout (shown below) came on May 22 over the Belmont dirt track:
The colt worked through five furlongs in 1:00.04, and as noted by Jeff Frank of The Sports Network (formerly of the Daily Racing Form), those workouts at Belmont are incredibly important:
Fresh legs, workouts over the Belmont dirt and a running style that fits the Belmont Stakes like a glove should keep Materiality squarely in the discussion as a threat to AP's reign.
Meanwhile, another colt has had recent workouts at Belmont—and a win at ⅛ miles over the track as well.
Back in April, Frosted punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a win in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. The three-year-old son of Tapit—the hottest sire in the game right now—ran an impressive race that day against a short yet solid field of horses.
As seen in the video above, Frosted was stuck running three wide through the first turn and the backstretch, all while slowly reeling in the leading group of Toasting Master and Daredevil. Then, in the second turn, Joel Rosario angled the young colt four wide as the field turned for home.
From there, the two were able to run down and away from Tencendur, who finished two lengths back in second place.
With a big win over the track, a solid fourth-place showing in the Derby—he was the only horse who closed into those slow fractions—and a pedigree that most horses would kill for, Frosted looms large atop the group of would-be challengers in this year's Belmont.
Pharoah has yet to work at Belmont, and it doesn't appear he will, either. This is an issue that can't really be overstated. While it may seem like just any other track, Belmont is much, much different than anything the Pioneerof the Nile colt has faced before.
Knowing his way around the track could have been a huge help for the young colt, and familiarizing him with the length of the backstretch, the wide nature of the two turns and the long home-stretch run could've been a big boost to his Belmont stock.
That said, if AP can keep himself forwardly placed, he'll have a big chance to win the race. Plodding away and saving ground does no one any good, but burning one's self out on the front end doesn't help, either.
All that to say, Pharoah is going to have to toe a rather thin line between running too aggressively and too conservatively if he's going to beat this stacked field of contenders.
If he manages to pull it all off, though, the young colt will be a shoo-in for three-year-old of the year, and possibly for horse of the year, and will undoubtedly go down as one of the top colts of all time, despite a rather short racing career.
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