Belmont Stakes 2015: Strategic Predictions for the Triple Crown's Final Jewel
American Pharoah goes into the Belmont Stakes June 6 with a full head of steam as he attempts to win the Triple Crown and end a 37-year drought for horse racing's most esteemed prize.
American Pharoah ran a solid race in the Kentucky Derby, outlasting Firing Line and Dortmund to win the Run for the Roses, but he was a lot better than that in winning the Preakness.
The downpour that hit Pimlico Race Course minutes before the start of the race could have caused problems for a lot of runners, but it didn't bother American Pharoah at all. He won the race in tremendous fashion by getting out of the gate quickly, establishing a clear lead over the field and then pulling away decisively.
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Neither the rain nor the pressure of the big race bothered him at all.
The Belmont Stakes is another challenge, and he will go into the final jewel of the Triple Crown as the 1-1 favorite, according to OddsShark.com. However, 13 previous winners of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness have gone forward in the Belmont Stakes since Affirmed and jockey Steve Cauthen completed the task, and all have failed.
The Belmont is the most demanding of the Triple Crown races because of the 1 ½-mile distance. In the past, most horsemen went under the theory that closers had the best chance to come away with the long race. However, recent winners have shown tactical speed and did not come from back in the pack.
| Horse | Odds | Skinny |
| American Pharoah | 1-1 | Star runner fulfills Triple Crown promise |
| Frosted | 5-1 | Will make a challenging run |
| Materiality | 15-2 | Has the tactical speed to push American Pharoah |
| Mubtaahij | 14-1 | Has not done enough to rate with these |
| Carpe Diem | 16-1 | Needs a burning pace to have a shot |
| Madefromlucky | 22-1 | Don't overlook. Possible upset chance |
| Keen Ice | 25-1 | Will have to come from way back |
| Divining Rod | 25-1 | Ordinary runner has little to offer |
| Tale of Verve | 28-1 | Will likely need sloppy track to repeat Preakness success |
| Conquest Curlinate | 33-1 | Improving, but still a long way to go |
| War Story | 33-1 | Not a legitimate contender |
| Frammento | 50-1 | Trainer Zito should not be overlooked |
American Pharoah certainly showed tactical speed in the Kentucky Derby and a lot more than that in the Preakness. Trainer Bob Baffert knows that the Belmont presents a completely different set of circumstances. It's one thing to get off to a sharp start, but it's another thing to use his horse up too early in the race and have it slow down in the stretch.
The other contenders in the race may not allow American Pharoah to get away from the field as he did in the Preakness.
While post positions will have a huge impact on strategy in the Belmont Stakes, here's how we see the race playing out.
American Pharoah has evolved over the first two Triple Crown races, and Baffert and jockey Victor Espinoza understand that their horse can dictate the terms of the Belmont by getting out of the gate quickly and establishing his own pace.
Baffert is not going to let American Pharoah set too fast of a pace, but most of the primary contenders in the race are come-from-behind horses or grinders who want to slowly make up ground around the far turn before hitting the gas down the stretch.
As a result, American Pharoah should be able to make the lead fairly easily, and we see him in a good position going around the first turn.
If any of the contending horses are going to press him in the first half-mile of the race, it should be Materiality. This horse got off to a poor start in the Kentucky Derby and faded to the back of the pack. However, Materiality finished the race well, and he has the tactical speed to stay close to American Pharoah if he is not spooked at the start.
We don't expect that to happen, and trainer Todd Pletcher should have this horse ready to run. He has had success in the Belmont before as eight of his horses have finished in the top three since 2006.
Neither Baffert nor Pletcher will allow their horses to engage in a speed duel that causes any undue stress later in the race. That's bad news for Carpe Diem and Frammento. Both of these longshots are late runners who would have a chance if the early runners burn themselves out. That's not going to happen.
However, don't count out Frosted. He appeared to be a come-from-behind horse in the Kentucky Derby when he rallied from 15th to fourth, and he did it by running on the far outside. That meant he actually ran quite a bit more than the 1 ¼-mile distance of the race. That would appear to be in his favor, because Frosted does not have a lot of distance running in his bloodlines.
Frosted may have struggled out of the gate in the Kentucky Derby, but his previous form indicated plenty of tactical speed. We expect Frosted to find himself in third place at the far turn and then make his move before the top of the stretch.
Frosted will get to the lead, but that will not bother American Pharoah. More than anything, he is a competitor. He will come back at Frosted and pass him in the midstretch. Materiality will continue to run hard and get within a length of the leader, but American Pharoah will hold him off.
The Belmont stretch is grueling, and it's where late runners go to win and early speed goes to die. Madefromlucky will be running the fastest down the stretch. He will pass all of the tired horses, and he will gain on American Pharoah at the finish. However, the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness winner will outlast him and become the Belmont Stakes and the Triple Crown winner.
The long drought will be over, and the sport of kings will have a new legend to celebrate.
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