Stock Watch for College Basketball's Blue Bloods in 2015 Offseason

Blue-blood programs are the lifeblood of college basketball's national landscape, and it certainly seems as though there will be no shortage of success stories to discuss for these eight schools in 2015-16.

If seeing "eight" and "blue blood" in the same sentence gives you heartburn, please refer to last year's Stock Watch for our justification for adding Connecticut and Louisville to the traditionally accepted list of blue-blood programs. In a nutshell, though, these are the eight teams that have won at least three national championships and always seem to be making deep runs in the NCAA tournament.

But it only seems like they are always in the tournament. In fact, there has been at least one dud in the bunch far more often than not over the past 15 years. The 2008 tournament was the only one in the past decade and a half that featured each of Connecticut, Duke, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina and UCLA—and Kentucky, with an 18-12 record that year, was a bit of a controversial inclusion as a No. 11 seed.

With the possible exception of UCLA, though, all eight of these teams appear to be poised for monster seasons, and will very likely hear their names called on Selection Sunday...if eligible for postseason play, that is. Cough, North Carolina, cough.

However, will they each be better or worse than last season?

Can Kentucky possibly be as good as it was in 2014-15? Could Duke repeat as national champs? Does Connecticut have what it takes to bounce back to title form? Will Kansas make it 12 straight Big 12 titles? How good could Indiana be if it survives the rest of the offseason without any more transfers or dismissals?

We seek to answer those questions and several others in each team's stock watch. There's no mathematical formula behind the stock "quotes." Rather, it's a gauge of whether we'd be more or less likely to buy each team as a potential national champion than we would have been at the start of the 2015 tournament.

Connecticut Huskies

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2014-15 Season: 20-15, Missed NCAA Tournament

Players Lost: Ryan Boatright, Terrence Samuel, Rakim Lubin

Players Gained: Sterling Gibbs, Shonn Miller, Jalen Adams, Steve Enoch

Projected Starters: Adams (PG), Gibbs (SG), Daniel Hamilton (SF), Miller (PF), Amida Brimah (C)

Top Four Bench Players: Rodney Purvis, Kentan Facey, Phillip Nolan, Omar Calhoun

Stock: Bouncing Back Nicely

Will we get the Connecticut that has won four of the past 17 national championships or the one that has missed five of the past 15 tournaments? (One was due to low APR scores, but the Huskies weren't exactly setting the world on fire in 2012-13, anyway.)

As little as five weeks ago, it was tempting to think the Huskies could be headed for back-to-back tourney whiffs.

We had them as a No. 11 seed in our mid-April bracket projection. Less than a week later, they picked up Shonn Miller—a graduate-transfer who averaged 16.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and 1.3 steals per game last year for an otherwise hapless Cornell. Then, in mid-May, Connecticut added Sterling Gibbs and the 16.3 points and 3.8 assists per game he put up for Seton Hall in 2014-15.

Suddenly, Connecticut looks like the overwhelming favorite to win the AAC and is, at worst, a fringe candidate to win the national championship.

It's usually pretty insane to suggest that a team could win the title one year after missing the tournament, but aside from the fact that Connecticut has proven twice in the past six years that it's totally possible, just look at that roster!

Jalen Adams is the "X-factor" that casual fans might not know much about, but as the point guard rated fifth-highest in this year's class, we're expecting big things. Put it this way: The last four players to occupy the No. 5 PG spot were Melo Trimble, Terry Rozier, Marcus Paige and Jahii Carson. That isn't to suggest that there's something magical about being No. 5 on the list, but players don't get rated that highly by being average.

So let's operate under the assumption that Kevin Ollie is getting a stud ball-handler in Adams. We've already mentioned Gibbs and Miller as great scorers who can fill up other box-score categories, as well. Amida Brimah was the nation's second-best shot-blocker and had the fourth-highest effective field-goal percentage last season. And Daniel Hamilton merely won AAC Freshman of the Year thanks to an impressive 11.0 points, 9.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game in conference play.

Throw in Rodney Purvis and Kentan Facey as bench guys who would probably be starters on 97 percent of rosters, and Connecticut is going from "Boatright or Bust" to possibly the best seven-man rotation in the country.

The only real question here is whether we should reignite the "Ollie to the NBA" rumors now or wait until after he leads this team to at least 28 wins.

Duke Blue Devils

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2014-15 Season: 35-4, No. 1 Seed (National Champs)

Players Lost: Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook

Players Gained: Derryck Thornton, Brandon Ingram, Luke Kennard, Chase Jeter, Sean Obi, Antonio Vrankovic, Justin Robinson

Projected Starters: Thornton (PG), Grayson Allen (SG), Ingram (SF), Amile Jefferson (PF), Jeter (C)

Top Four Bench Players: Matt Jones, Kennard, Obi, Marshall Plumlee

Stock: Rapidly Rebuilding

Once the elation has worn off and the appropriate banners to commemorate the great season are either created or updated, trying to repeat as college basketball's national champion has not been a favorable position in recent years.

A few days before the loss to Yale last December that had many wondering legitimately for the first time whether Connecticut simply wasn't going to be any good, we took a look at how difficult it is to repeat in college basketball these days.

The results were pretty staggering.

Now that we can include Connecticut in that data, four of the last eight reigning champions missed the tournament altogether. Florida went back-to-back in 2006-07, but was the only reigning champ in the past 14 years to make it past the Sweet 16. And by getting all six of their primary players—including Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah and Al Horford—to return to school after winning a title, the Gators were already very much the exception to what has become the modern rule.

Duke isn't bringing back its top six players. Heck, the Blue Devils aren't getting back any of their top four. But if you're going to start from scratch, giving the best coach in the game four 5-star guys as part of the best recruiting class in the country isn't a bad way to go.

The one potential glaring hole, though, is in the paint.

For a second straight year, Duke will have an incredible freshman point guard, one of the best small forwards in the country, at least one lights-out three-point shooter and just enough veteran leadership that we probably won't immediately point to the youth of the Blue Devils as the cause if and when they struggle.

But with all due respect to Chase Jeter, he isn't Jahlil Okafor. Coach K gave Okafor respites as often as he could in blowouts, but Okafor was either in the game or combating foul trouble in every relatively close game Duke played. He was one of the best and most reliable players in the nation and an absolutely impossible standard for Duke's next center to live up to.

Luckily, Jeter doesn't need to be Okafor for Duke to succeed. If he can live up to the potential of similarly rated power forwards of years past like Chris McCullough, Kevon Looney, Brandon Ashley and Bobby Portis, Duke just might be able to break the curse and repeat as national champs.

Indiana Hoosiers

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2014-15 Season: 20-14, No. 10 Seed (Lost to Wichita State in Round of 64)

Players Lost: Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Stanford Robinson, Devin Davis, Max Hoetzel, Jeremiah April

Players Gained: Thomas Bryant, Juwan Morgan, Ogugua Anunoby, Harrison Niego

Projected Starters: Yogi Ferrell (PG), James Blackmon Jr. (SG), Robert Johnson (SF), Troy Williams (PF), Bryant (C)

Top Four Bench Players: Morgan, Nick Zeisloft, Collin Hartman, Emmitt Holt

Stock: Through The Roof

It's crazy how fandom works in Bloomington.

Let's flash back to early November 2014. Stanford Robinson and Troy Williams had just been suspended for the first two games of the season for a failed drug test. This came a few days after Emmitt Holt had accidentally hit Devin Davis with his car. Between that and a bevy of departed transfers over the previous few months, the season hadn't even begun, and everyone under the sun was already screaming for Tom Crean to be fired for losing control of the roster.

Tell Indiana fans at that point in time that the Hoosiers would have a pretty strong two-month stretch to open the season before stumbling a bit to the finish line and earning a No. 10 seed, and they likely would have administered a drug test to diagnose your outrageous optimism. But even after all that happened, the vocal part of the fanbase still wants Crean to get the ax.

Might all be forgiven with a strong 2015-16 season, or is he pretty much permanently an enemy to his own fans?

Whether it helps Crean's job security or not, the Hoosiers should look much more like the team that earned a No. 1 seed in 2013 than the one that missed the 2014 tournament.

With Williams and Yogi Ferrell both deciding to return for another year and 5-star power forward Thomas Bryant signing, April ended up being a pretty fine month for Indiana. May hasn't been nearly as kind, with Davis and Hanner Mosquera-Perea getting dismissed from the team, but the net result is a very fortuitous offseason to this point.

As was the case last year, the Hoosiers will eat, sleep and breathe three-point field goals. They shot 40.6 percent as a team and averaged 9.4 makes per game. They'll get all five of the primary perimeter threats back for another year.

The big positive difference, though, is what's changing in the post. Mosquera-Perea did what he could, but he wasn't nearly as good as Bryant projects to be, nor did he have the size or tenacity that Juwan Morgan will bring to the table.

The Hoosiers were eviscerated in the paint on defense all season long. If they're so much as slightly above average in that department this coming season, they'll legitimately contend for the Big Ten and national championships.

Kansas Jayhawks

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2014-15 Season: 27-9, No. 2 Seed (Lost to Wichita State in Round of 32)

Players Lost: Kelly Oubre, Cliff Alexander

Players Gained: Cheick Diallo, Carlton Bragg

Projected Starters: Frank Mason (PG), Wayne Selden (SG), Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (SF), Diallo (PF), Perry Ellis (C)

Top Four Bench Players: Brannen Greene, Bragg, Jamari Traylor, Devonte' Graham

Stock: Slightly Up

It's not easy to improve upon winning an 11th consecutive major conference title, but making a significant upgrade at what was a position of weakness last season is a good way to make it happen.

Whether you want to refer to Perry Ellis as Kansas' primary power forward or center, the fact remains that the other spot in the frontcourt was a constant struggle in 2014-15.

Cliff Alexander was pretty clearly the most talented of the options, but between eligibility issues and a gold membership card at Bill Self's doghouse, he never made the total impact we were promised. Jamari Traylor, Landen Lucas and to a lesser degree Hunter Mickelson each had ample opportunity to earn their keep, yet they all failed to do so.

Because of that, power forward was the singular focus of the late signing period. Self added a pair of 5-star power forwards and nothing more.

But assuming either Cheick Diallo or Carlton Bragg pans out, it's more than enough to make the Jayhawks a very strong title contender.

If we consider Brannen Greene an option at both SG and SF (which he absolutely is), they now have multiple viable options at every position on the court. As was the case with Kentucky last season, one could build a pretty strong starting lineup out of Kansas' reserves. Give me Devonte' Graham, Greene, Bragg, Traylor and Lucas, and I like my chances against any team that will open the season ranked outside the top 10.

The big question in Lawrence, though, is whether Kansas can make it 12 Big 12 titles in a row.

There's a fine line between having the talent to win a national championship and having enough to win a regular-season conference title. Any number of teams can get hot for a stretch of six games in March, but winning at least 14 out of 18 games in January and February in arguably the nation's best conference is a gauntlet—particularly with Iowa State and Oklahoma also among the 14 teams that Odds Shark has listed as having better than 30-1 odds of winning the title.

But if you can get someone to give you an oddly specific parlay of Kansas finishing top two in the Big 12 and advancing to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2012, you'd be a fool not to take it. The Jayhawks will be at least that good.

Kentucky Wildcats

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2014-15 Season: 38-1, No. 1 Seed (Lost to Wisconsin in Final Four)

Players Lost: Karl-Anthony Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein, Trey Lyles, Devin Booker, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, Dakari Johnson

Players Gained: Skal Labissiere, Isaiah Briscoe, Charles Matthews, Mychal Mulder

Projected Starters: Tyler Ulis (PG), Briscoe (SG), Alex Poythress (SF), Marcus Lee (PF), Labissiere (C)

Top Four Bench Players: Matthews, Mulder, Derek Willis, Dominique Hawkins

Stock: Down, But Still Very Solid

Right up until losing to Wisconsin, Kentucky was regarded as the best team in the country for the entirety of the 2014-15 season. Fans of teams other than Duke and Wisconsin probably still regard Kentucky as the best team of the past season—if not the past decade. The Wildcats just weren't able to win the title.

So, yeah, their stock is down a bit. Try not to take too much offense, though, Big Blue Nation. We still see Kentucky as one of the top five teams heading into next season.

(That said, it's a relief that we won't have to hear the words "40 and oh" for the first time in a few years.)

The trick with evaluating the Wildcats is to avoid the trap of grading them against last year's team. From the team that won 38 consecutive games, seven players declared for the NBA draft. Four will almost certainly be first-round draft picks, and Andrew Harrison could well make it five. It was basically an all-star team, and an awful lot to live up to.

Compare this year's Kentucky roster to this year's Duke or Kansas roster, though, and being anchored by guys like Skal Labissiere, Tyler Ulis, Isaiah Briscoe and Alex Poythress isn't even remotely disappointing. Kentucky remains the overwhelming favorite to win the SEC and one of the favorites to win the national championship.

What else is new?

Well, one thing is sort of new. Jamal Murray is arguably the biggest domino yet to fall this offseason. The Canadian point guard is currently scheduled to be one of the top recruits in the Class of 2016, but he's still contemplating the option of reclassifying to 2015 and potentially joining the Wildcats, according to Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv.

The report from the Globe And Mail on Sunday night is that "Murray is likely to decide by June." If he does join Kentucky's 2015 class, it would enhance the team's chances of winning the 2016 national championship. Even though he's a guard, his presence would significantly increase Kentucky's options in the paint by making a permanent three-guard lineup a very strong possibility.

Even if the Wildcats don't add Murray this year, let's just say that we couldn't be less worried about John Calipari extending his streak of 15 consecutive seasons with at least 21 wins.

Louisville Cardinals

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2014-15 Season: 27-9, No. 4 Seed (Lost to Michigan State in Elite Eight)

Players Lost: Montrezl Harrell, Terry Rozier, Wayne Blackshear, Chris Jones, Anton Gill, Shaqquan Aaron

Players Gained: Trey Lewis, Damion Lee, Donovan Mitchell, Deng Adel, Raymond Spalding, Ryan McMahon

Projected Starters: Quentin Snider (PG), Lewis (SG), Lee (SF), Spalding (PF), Mangok Mathiang (C)

Top Four Bench Players: Adel, Mitchell, Chinanu Onuaku, Jaylen Johnson

Stock: Better Than 7 Weeks Ago; Worse Than 7 Months Ago

There's a reason we preface every 10-seconds-after-the-national-championship-game-ends projection with "Way Too Early," and Louisville is a great example of that.

There was a brief window after Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier declared for the NBA draft, after Shaqquan Aaron and Anton Gill announced their intention to transfer away from Louisville and before Damion Lee became one of two graduate-transfers that the Cardinals desperately needed. And it was during that window that I projected Louisville to miss the 2016 NCAA tournament.

That's no longer the case, but the Cardinals are still a stone's throw away from really contending for the ACC title. Admittedly, though, that has much more to do with North Carolina, Duke and Virginia being incredible than it does Louisville being anything less than solid.

By adding Lee and Trey Lewis, Louisville is absolutely set in the backcourt. Rick Pitino dug deep into his magic hat and pulled a pair of great veteran leaders out of thin air.

Unless he has a 6'9" trick up his sleeve, though, the frontcourt is a different story. Mangok Mathiang and Chinanu Onuaku are considerably above-average shot-blockers and rebounders, but their collective offensive game is about as well-polished as the dress shoes that have been in the back of my closet since 2007. Neither Anas Mahmoud nor Jaylen Johnson was much better in significantly fewer minutes.

If a big man is going to be a scoring threat on this team, it might have to be one that wasn't on the roster last season. Freshman Raymond Spalding (6'9", 200 lbs) has the more prototypical power forward build, but freshman Deng Adel (6'7", 185 lbs) could see some significant minutes at the 4 when Louisville goes a little smaller.

But who says Pitino needs a dominant power forward to win games? We've all been spoiled by Harrell's athleticism in recent years, but Louisville won the title in 2013 with a frontcourt of Gorgui Dieng, Chane Behanan and Luke Hancock.

The Russ Smith-and-Peyton Siva show was plenty, so maybe Lee, Lewis and Quentin Snider can lead this team somewhere special.

North Carolina Tar Heels

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2014-15 Season: 26-12, No. 4 Seed (Lost to Wisconsin in Sweet 16)

Players Lost: J.P. Tokoto, Jackson Simmons, Desmond Hubert

Players Gained: Kenny Williams, Luke Maye

Projected Starters: Marcus Paige (PG), Justin Jackson (SG), Theo Pinson (SF), Brice Johnson (PF), Kennedy Meeks (C)

Top Four Bench Players: Joel Berry, Isaiah Hicks, Nate Britt, Williams

Stock: Soaring On Court, Spiraling Off Court

If we are solely concerned with the 2015-16 season and are operating under the assumption that the recently received notice of allegations will not result in any sort of postseason ban for at least another 10 months, then it's all gravy for the Tar Heels.

That's because as far as collective talent is concerned, it doesn't get much better than North Carolina's roster.

Had they been able to stay healthy, the Tar Heels likely would have been one of the five best teams in the country this past season. And of the key players on that roster, J.P. Tokoto was the only one to leave, doing so voluntarily a year early.

Make no mistake about it: Tokoto was a crucial player on this team. His jump shot was painful to watch, but he was a great passer and arguably North Carolina's best defender. Good thing Theo Pinson showed very similar qualities in his limited playing time and should be able to fill that spot admirably.

Having guys like Joel Berry and Isaiah Hicks coming off the bench certainly won't hurt their chances of winning a national championship, either.

But we would be remiss without at least considering the alternative for next season and noting the long-term impact of that notice of allegations.

Andrew Carter of the News & Observer noted the following when the Tar Heels missed out on Brandon Ingram:

"

[Roy] Williams in March acknowledged that “junk” surrounding his program – his way of describing the NCAA investigation and other issues UNC has encountered in recent years – has negatively affected recruiting. He said in some cases he has had difficulty convincing top prospects to visit campus.

"

Also noted in that story from Carter, Ingram responded "I think I would have" when asked if he would have signed with the Tar Heels instead of the Blue Devils were it not for the shadow of the Wainstein Report.

"I liked them a lot, but I'm kind of glad that I waited."

At this point, the threat of the unknown might be worse than the actual punishment. North Carolina could end up in a similar boat as Syracuse with a one-year postseason ban and several years of reduced scholarships, but good luck recruiting some of the nation's top high school players while responding to questions about upcoming sanctions with little more than ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

In a perfect world, the Tar Heels would find out immediately what the penalty will be, and it won't affect this season. In an equally possible world, the NCAA will drag its feet for seven months before imposing an immediate postseason ban, removing the program's chance of a 2016 title while also substantially reducing its chance of building a championship roster at any point in the next half-decade.

But, hey, that Marcus Paige is pretty good, right?

UCLA Bruins

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2014-15 Season: 22-14, No. 11 Seed (Lost to Gonzaga in Sweet 16)

Players Lost: Kevon Looney, Norman Powell, Wanaah Bail

Players Gained: Prince Ali, Aaron Holiday, Ikenna Okwarabizie, Alex Olesinski

Projected Starters: Bryce Alford (PG), Isaac Hamilton (SG), Jonah Bolden (SF), Tony Parker (PF), Thomas Welsh (C)

Top Four Bench Players: Ali, Holiday, Noah Allen, Gyorgy Goloman

Stock: Holding Steady

The Bruins just barely (and controversially) sneaked into the NCAA tournament field this past March, and they figure to be right back in a similar position in 2015-16.

It would be hard to overstate just how much UCLA is going to miss Kevon Looney and Norman Powell. They were two of the three leaders in both points and rebounds and were the two team leaders in steals, so the Bruins have some serious holes at the forward positions without them.

One player who should be able to fill one of those vacancies is a guy that most have either forgotten about or had never heard of in the first place. Jonah Bolden was ruled ineligible as a partial-qualifier last September, but he should be a huge factor this year—provided he makes a full recovery from a recent surgery to repair a torn meniscus. The 6'10" guard/forward hybrid will do a little bit of everything for the Bruins.

They'll also need Thomas Welsh to take a leap forward as a sophomore. The big man ranked sixth on the roster in minutes played last season, but he wasn't a particularly efficient scorer. His value was mostly in blocking shots. He may, however, need to become a more legitimate offensive weapon to make up for all the points lost between Powell and Looney.

The frontcourt is where the question marks are. In the backcourt, UCLA is well-stacked.

Not only are Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton back for another year of raining threes, but Steve Alford is adding a pair of studs in Prince Ali and Aaron Holiday. We have Bolden and Welsh both projected as starters, but it wouldn't be even remotely surprising if UCLA goes predominantly with a three-guard lineup instead.

They won't be particularly deep. Still, the Bruins should be talented enough to battle Utah and Oregon State for third place in the Pac-12 behind Arizona and California. Of the eight blue bloods, they're the most likely to miss the tournament.

But we wouldn't advise putting any money on that outcome.

Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.