Carlos Condit vs. Thiago Alves: A Full Head-to-Toe Breakdown
After the great UFC 187 main card, the UFC makes its way to Brazil for UFC Fight Night 67. The leader in mixed martial arts will bring a great welterweight main event to your TV screens this coming weekend.
No. 4-ranked contender Carlos Condit returns to action against No. 12-ranked Thiago Alves.
Condit has lost three of his last four fights, but two of those losses came against Georges St. Pierre and Johny Hendricks. He returns after suffering a torn ACL and meniscus in his last fight against Tyron Woodley. Saturday will mark the first time he steps in the cage in over a year.
Alves has suffered a string of injuries of his own. The Brazilian was on the shelf from March 2012 to April 2014. Alves has won back-to-back fights over Seth Baczynski and Jordan Mein. The former title challenger wants to break into the top 10, and a win over Condit would do just that.
Who holds the advantages in Saturday's main event?
This is your head-to-toe breakdown of the action.
Striking
1 of 5
The numbers for the stand-up in this fight lean toward Alves. Alves lands just a bit more significant strikes, is a little bit more accurate and has a better defensive percentage.
Still, I'm giving the nod to Condit.
Years ago, we would have all said Alves. Hands down. Condit wasn't seen as a great striker but merely a well-rounded fighter. He wasn't a danger to knock out his opponents. But that has changed. Condit's improvement with his stand-up has been excellent to watch.
His footwork and head movement are much-improved, and he is very versatile in what he can do. Punches, knees, kicks, elbows and, yes, even some spinning maneuvers. Moreover, he mixes it all up inside the cage.
Alves is still a vicious striker, but he is a little more predictable. He will also be at a five-inch disadvantage with his reach, and Condit will exploit that.
Alves has the power advantage and will be a threat to end this fight at any point, but Condit is the better striker overall.
Edge: Condit
Grappling
2 of 5
These two love to strike, but grappling may come into play in the later rounds or if one is looking to survive a barrage of punches.
I agree with the stats. Alves holds the edge.
Condit gets put against the fence quite a bit and hasn't completed a takedown in the UFC since 2009. Since his last takedown, he has been taken down 33 times. That includes six takedowns at the hands of Martin Kampmann.
Alves, on the other hand, does work in wrestling from time to time. In his meeting with Kampmann, he successfully completed two takedowns while only giving up one. His takedown defense percentage of 66 is significantly higher than Condit's 39 percent.
If Alves moves Condit to the fence, do not expect Condit to flip the position around much—if at all. Alves can keep him there. He's strong and can utilize his muay thai efficiently from the position.
The numbers do not tell the full story, however. Condit is fully capable of taking Alves to the canvas. Do not mistake who has the edge for who could win in that area in the fight.
With that said, Alves gets the nod.
Edge: Alves
Submissions
3 of 5
This is one area where Condit has a clear advantage. He is far and away the better submission finisher between the two.
Alves has two submission wins to his credit, with one coming by way of punches. Condit, on the other hand, has 13 career submission victories on his resume.
Condit is much more active in seeking the finish via submission. If he is on top, he is always looking for the opening. From the bottom, he uses his long limbs to tie up his opponents with an active guard. Condit is always looking to finish.
Alves can most likely avoid trouble on the mat if he is in top position in the early rounds, but as the fight wears on, he will be in increasing danger. The more gassed he gets, the more openings he will leave. Condit will find one to finish him if he gets sloppy.
Edge: Condit
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Alves' X-Factor: Cardio
Alves is a powerful striker and quality grappler, but one part that has been missing from his game throughout his career has been cardio.
He fades in lengthy fights—in part because he expends a lot of energy throwing vicious power.
Historically, Condit has a great gas tank. He can go 25 minutes no issue. That is worrisome for Alves. Even if he is able to take the opening two rounds, Condit's chances will improve as the fight keeps going. Alves' high output could make him a sitting duck the longer the fight draws on.
Alves doesn't necessarily have to fight differently than he has, but he has to be more patient. He has to choose his times to go for broke more efficiently so as to not dump all his energy in the first 10 minutes.
Condit's X-Factor: The Injury
Over the years, ACL injuries have gone from career-ending to a multiyear comeback process to a nine-month hiatus. Technology and medical advancements now allow a fighter to return at nearly 100 percent of what they were pre-injury.
Regardless, it will always be a question in their first fight back.
It is especially crucial in this matchup because of Condit's movement.
His footwork against Nick Diaz was fantastic. It helped him to win the fight. He has to have similar footwork against Alves. He cannot circle into his power and has to avoid eating too many powerful leg kicks. If he is less mobile because of his knee, that will be a problem.
We won't know until we see him fight. Watching the opening round to see how well he is moving will be very interesting.
Prediction
5 of 5
If Condit is fully healthy, I love him in this matchup.
He's tough, durable, utilizes his reach well and can go the full five rounds at a high pace. Alves will struggle to find many opportunities to finish.
Alves will have to work his leg kicks early and often. Test the knee of Condit and do damage so that he loses mobility. If he goes away from the leg kicks or Condit avoids them, Alves will be in trouble.
I expect Condit to draw this out. He will mix it up with Alves in the first round but use his reach and movement to stay on the outside. He will make Alves chase. In the second and third rounds, expect more grappling. If Alves closes the distance, they will grind in the clinch. Even if Alves holds position, the work rate will be his downfall.
In the championship rounds, Condit will finish.
A tired Alves will end up on his back, either by takedown or knockdown. Condit will then sink in the rear-naked choke to get the tap. Expect a big return performance from "The Natural Born Killer."
Prediction: Carlos Condit defeats Thiago Alves via submission (rear-naked choke) in the fourth round.
Statistics and measurements courtesy of FightMetric.
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