Belmont Stakes 2015: Breaking Down Predictions for Projected Field in New York
Alongside Bob Baffert's American Pharoah trot a number of high-profile, well-rested contenders to New York for the 2015 edition of the Belmont Stakes.
Top trainers such as Todd Pletcher skipped out on the sloppy conditions at Pimlico, waving off a short turnaround to the Preakness Stakes after the Kentucky Derby, instead opting to give themselves a greater chance at the Belmont.
The event in New York won't feature a field in the neighborhood of 20 horses as the one at Churchill Downs did, nor will it feature intriguing weather conditions.
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What it will do, though, is provide viewers with horse racing's edition of a marathon over 1 ½ miles and a shot at the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years.
Things are subject to change, but here's a look at a projected lineup and how it figures to shake out.
Projected Horses and Odds
| American Pharoah | 1-1 | 1 |
| Frosted | 5-1 | 2 |
| Materiality | 15-2 | 4 |
| Carpe Diem | 16-1 | 5 |
| Madefromlucky | 22-1 | 8 |
| Mubtaahij | 14-1 | 3 |
| Divining Rod | 25-1 | 6 |
| Keen Ice | 25-1 | 9 |
| Tale of Verve | 28-1 | 7 |
| Conquest Curlinate | 33-1 | 10 |
| War Story | 33-1 | 11 |
| Frammento | 50-1 | 12 |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of May 24.
Breaking Down Top Projected Finishers
At first glance, it's quite apparent the projected field for New York is much deeper than the handful of names who lined up at the gates in Baltimore.
There are underdogs such as Carpe Diem, who doesn't get a lot of attention after finishing 10th in the Kentucky Derby. It's important to remember he's a Pletcher-trained colt, though, who sat out the Preakness and fits the mold of a contender who always helps Pletcher perform as one of the best in New York.
Also keep an eye on someone such as Keen Ice. The Dale Romans-trained horse came from out of nowhere late in the Kentucky Derby to finish a surprising seventh and features a pedigree suggesting big things over large distances.
The top three isn't hard to choose, though.
There's not a ton of hype around Mubtaahij, but it seems to have more to do with a lack of familiarity than anything.
Trainer Mike de Kock's horse does well over long distances, as most international horses do, and his second American start will come in New York after skipping the Preakness. For a horse who loves to hang back and make a late push, the Belmont is a suitable environment to pull off a surprising third-place finish.
The Kiaran McLaughlin-trained Frosted was a favorite upset pick by the majority at Churchill Downs, but the colt faded in the stacked field and finished fourth, a performance the trainer touched on while announcing they will partake in the Belmont.
"We ran good breaking from a wide post in an 18-horse field and going six wide on the far turn, and we wish there were more pace," McLaughlin said, per BloodHorse.com (via ESPN.com). "He ran a great race, but we were a little disappointed. We wanted to win."
It's never wise to ignore a well-rested horse who loves to act as a closer late, especially not with a brilliant tactician such as Joel Rosario up top, a combination sure to give American Pharoah everything he can handle.
Which is not to suggest it will be enough.
Barring an epic collapse, Baffert's crown jewel isn't losing in New York.
It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking American Pharoah could go the way of California Chrome last year and lose gas on another quick turnaround and the third ultra-competitive race in a little over a month.
Such a line of thinking ignores the fact American Pharoah just put on the best performance of his career on a quick turnaround from the Kentucky Derby to the Preakness Stakes.
It's easy to think a weak Preakness field and muddy conditions, which grounded contenders such as Firing Line and Baffert's other top horse, Dortmund, played a big role in American Pharoah's convincing win in Baltimore.
Such a line of thinking ignores the fact American Pharoah now has two stunning triumphs out of miserable post positions. At Churchill Downs, he almost ran out of the winless 17th spot; at Pimlico, he ran against the rail.
With jockey Victor Espinoza in control, who by the way is the first jockey in history to attempt this feat a third time, it's hard to pick any other colt to seize victory in New York. American Pharoah's too good, and the hurdles he's leaped only make it more impressive.
Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified.
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