Fantasy Football Rankings 2015: Early Breakdown of the Top Quarterbacks
It's time to start getting down to the nitty gritty when it comes to fantasy football rankings.
We've already taken a cursory look at the top players at every position, but a closer look is warranted. Let's start at the most important position in sports—quarterback.
Will Andrew Luck repeat as the top performer in 2015? Can we trust Cam Newton to bounce back? Should you avoid Tom Brady?
Let's dive in and take a look at the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks for 2015.
With one notable exception, these guys are ranked based on how they should end up scoring in standard formats—four points for passing touchdowns, 0.04 points per passing yard and six points per rushing touchdown and 0.1 points per rushing yard—at the end of the year.
15. Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings
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Despite a quality second half of his rookie season, Teddy Bridgewater didn't offer much to see from a fantasy football perspective.
Without a reliable weapon, Bridgewater wound up 28th in points per game. Of course, he was also a rookie—few pan out as top fantasy options, hyped or not.
Bridgewater got a shiny new toy—at least in theory—when the Vikings traded for speedster Mike Wallace. Maybe a(nother) change of scenery is all Wallace needs to become a reliable threat.
More importantly, Bridgewater's development should have his arrow pointing up in the fantasy realm, making him an intriguing option as a second quarterback in a committee, at the very least.
14. Eli Manning, New York Giants
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Which team has the best wide receiver corps? The New York Giants have quietly submitted their group to the Goblet of Hot Takes.
Led by an Offensive Rookie of the Year the likes of which we haven't seen since Randy Moss, New York's pass-catchers could be among the league's best.
All right, that might be a bit of hyperbole considering we don't know what we'll get out of Rueben Randle and Victor Cruz—who is coming off an injury—but Odell Beckham as a headliner certainly turns heads. If Cruz can return to 2012 form, that unit is going to be a boon for quarterback Eli Manning.
Of course, he'll have to overcome an offensive line that was decimated by the recent loss of William Beatty.
13. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
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You would think having Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate—not to mention a nice group of big tight ends—would automatically put you in the top 10 in fantasy scoring. Not so for Matthew Stafford.
Detroit's franchise quarterback took a step back last season despite an upgraded arsenal.
One reason for that was a renewed focus on the ground game. Stafford "only" threw 602 passes last season, 32 fewer than the previous season and well below the all-time record 727 attempts he had in 2012. We might have predicted such a reduction under new head coach Jim Caldwell.
It's a good bet the Lions will try to run the ball even more in 2015 after drafting Ameer Abdullah to pair with big back Joique Bell. We could well see another drop in passing attempts for Stafford next season if the Lions want to continue trying to balance the offense.
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12. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
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He got a massive new contract. Now is the time for Ryan Tannehill to earn it.
Flying under the radar last season, Miami's new $96 million man actually eked out a top-10 fantasy season. Not bad for a guy who averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and couldn't find a reliable deep connection.
Tannehill's ability as a rusher certainly helped—the Dolphins got him on the run by design more often last season, and he had 317 yards and a touchdown to show for it.
More importantly, the Dolphins did everything they could to upgrade his weaponry.
Miami traded disgruntled receiver Mike Wallace, replacing him with a younger, far cheaper version in Kenny Stills. The Dolphins also nabbed DeVante Parker with the No. 14 overall pick, a rookie some have compared to A.J. Green. They join forces with promising second-year wideout Jarvis Landry, who was fantastic in the slot as a rookie.
Tight end Jordan Cameron completed the makeover, an upgrade over overpriced Charles Clay if the former can stay healthy.
This ranking might prove to be way too low if Tannehill hits it off right away with his new teammates.
11. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
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He has been a bit inconsistent over the years, but Tony Romo has been good for at least a top-15 fantasy finish every season since 2007 when he has been healthy.
Playing behind arguably the best offensive line in the league and throwing to one of the best receivers in the league should be good for his fantasy stock. He is certainly thankful for his big uglies, per Michael Florek of the Dallas Morning News:
"When you have a good offensive line like we do the thought definitely crosses your mind to ensure you do everything possible to play longer than maybe what you had envisioned. We’ll reassess that in a few years. My wife will tell you, I’m talking a little more long term than I maybe had been. So we’ll see.
"
Losing DeMarco Murray won't necessarily help things in that department, unfortunately; Darren McFadden isn't going to suddenly turn into Adrian Peterson, great offensive line notwithstanding.
A less-efficient running game will probably mean a few more passing attempts for Romo, which is a good thing from a fantasy perspective. Hopefully that offensive line can keep him healthy all year.
10. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
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So he's suspended for four games. So what?
Tom Brady was one of the worst fantasy quarterbacks in the league through the first four games of the 2014 season before he caught fire. He may as well have been suspended then; his owners would have actually been better off playing someone else.
Brady wound up 11th in fantasy scoring on the year despite being 33rd in points per game through the first four weeks of the season. Not too shabby.
If he does miss four games—who knows whether that four-game suspension will be reduced on appeal—Brady won't likely land in the top 10 in fantasy scoring. The reason he is in the top 10 here, though, isn't because of ultimate rank: He is just plain worth drafting at a discount.
Brady's draft stock has plummeted since news of his suspension hit, and he is currently the 11th quarterback on the board and falling, according to average draft position data compiled by Footballguys.com. Taking him that low allows you to focus elsewhere on the roster and get a guy who might be in the top five over the final 12 games of the season.
You'll just need to draft his backup pretty soon after you take Brady.
9. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
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Can Philip Rivers be trusted?
After all, he did throw for 4,286 yards and 31 touchdowns last season, a continuation of his career renaissance after looking like a shell of himself just a few years ago.
That output only got him to ninth in fantasy scoring, however. A pedestrian second half didn't do his fantasy owners any favors, either—Rivers threw just 11 of his touchdowns after Week 8.
Rivers is still very good, and he has some nice pass-catchers in his stable. Keenan Allen had a bit of a rough sophomore campaign, but he is a solid No. 1. Eddie Royal may be gone, but newcomer Stevie Johnson might be even better in that offense.
Most importantly, Antonio Gates is still around, and his understudy Ladarius Green might finally deliver on his promise if he can get on the field more often.
8. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
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Even in down years, Matt Ryan hasn't finished outside the top 10 in fantasy scoring since 2010, his third year in the league.
Having Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez during that span certainly helped.
Gonzalez is gone, but White and Jones remain. The former is getting a bit long in the tooth, but Jones is just heading into his prime. He also happens to be one of the best receivers on the planet when he's healthy.
Throwing 600-plus passes on an annual basis is a good thing too. Ryan has done that over the past three seasons thanks to a combination of bad defenses and a mediocre running game.
The ground game has been improved, in theory, with the addition of Tevin Coleman alongside second-year man Devonta Freeman. But it's easy to see Ryan get around 600 passing attempts.
Jones is the key here—if he stays healthy the entire season, Ryan and his fantasy owners will be pretty happy.
7. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
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Martavis Bryant strapped a rocket to Ben Roethlisberger's fantasy stock when he made his midseason debut in 2014.
The big rookie out of Clemson made an instant impact, scoring a touchdown on his first-ever reception in the NFL. That was the first of six he would catch in his first four games in the league.
Bryant's arrival helped Roethlisberger score the second-most fantasy points per game in the entire league over the final 11 weeks of the season.
Of course, having a pass-catching phenom like Le'Veon Bell out of that backfield didn't hurt. He'll be out for the first three weeks of the season, which could actually limit Roethlisberger's production. That, or the Steelers will just air it out until Bell gets back.
6. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
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Drew Brees doesn't finish outside the top five in fantasy scoring. It hasn't happened in a decade, at any rate.
By those standards, this is an outlandish prediction. In context, however, it's hard to see Brees replicating his elite success of the past.
That's because his surroundings are a bit unfamiliar. Gone is stud tight end Jimmy Graham. So is nascent receiver Kenny Stills, not to mention reliable pass-catching running back Pierre Thomas.
Granted, the roster wasn't entirely gutted—promising young wideout Brandin Cooks looked great until getting hurt in 2014, and Marques Colston is still around. C.J. Spiller is in town, presumably to take Thomas' place.
Everything the Saints have done this offseason has pointed to a focus on the ground game, however, including signing Mark Ingram and Spiller to similar contracts.
Then there is Brees himself, who, despite being 36 years old, can still play at a high level. That's why he barely fell out of the top five here.
5. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
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Russell Wilson may have been the best quarterback running the ball last season, but he won't hold that crown for very long if Cam Newton has anything to say about it.
Superman ran afoul of some kryptonite last season, missing a couple of games due to injury and getting a slow start because of it to boot. Yet he ran the ball 103 times for 539 yards and five touchdowns, second only to Wilson in production with his legs.
That production didn't help Newton crack the top 15 in fantasy scoring, however—even with rookie standout receiver Kelvin Benjamin and underrated tight end Greg Olsen in the fold, Newton only tossed 18 touchdowns in 14 games last season.
Of course, a bad offensive line and no preseason work to speak of didn't help. One of those things is fixed, at least, assuming Newton can stay on the field.
A healthy year could make Newton one of the most valuable quarterbacks in all of fantasy football.
4. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
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The fantasy playoffs weren't kind to fantasy owners with Peyton Manning in their lineups.
Manning's typically great season helped get owners to the postseason, but he made a WWE-worthy heel turn from a production standpoint.
He had consecutive weeks where he completed exactly 14 of 20 passes starting in Week 14, and he threw just one touchdown over those two weeks.
We found out he was dealing with a nasty injury in the aftermath of Manning's fantasy destruction—ESPN's Adam Schefter reported he played the final month of the season with a torn right quadriceps—but it was of little consolation to fantasy owners who got burned.
All that makes it easy to forget he was fourth in fantasy scoring last season, a year after he led the league thanks to his record-breaking efforts. Little has changed other than the fact Manning is a year older and closer to that career cliff.
3. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
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It's a bit crazy that Russell Wilson fell 151 shy of 1,000 rushing yards last season—third-most in NFL history at quarterback—and nobody is talking about it.
Six rushing touchdowns in addition to that buoyed Wilson's fantasy score, where he narrowly missed out on a top-five ranking.
Counting on those fantasy points from rushing totals is a bit dangerous—there is no telling if the Seahawks or Wilson himself will choose to limit that to mitigate injury risk, for example—but the upside is too tantalizing to ignore.
Even better, Wilson's passing totals should get a big boost this season. That will largely be thanks to new Seahawk Jimmy Graham, one of the top tight ends in the league.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
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The last time Aaron Rodgers was outside the top two in fantasy scoring—when he played a full season or close to it, at any rate—was 2007, when Brett Favre was the starter in Green Bay.
The reigning MVP is the best quarterback in the league, and that makes him a perennially elite fantasy option. It hasn't mattered much who his pass-catchers were over the years, but it's a big plus that he has Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb to terrorize opposing secondaries.
Part of Rodgers' fantasy charm is his ability to make plays with his legs, though he is more judicious than some of his peers when it comes to leaving the pocket.
1. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
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Andrew Luck was, by far, the best fantasy scorer at quarterback last season.
One reason for that was sheer volume—the Indianapolis Colts threw the most passes in the league in 2014. Each passing attempt is an opportunity to score fantasy points, after all.
It wasn't just volume that got Luck to the top, however. He was fourth in the league in points per dropback and passing attempt, so he would have likely been among the top scorers even if he threw 100 fewer passes.
The Colts aren't likely to take the ball out of their best player's hands—at least not in any sort of dramatic fashion—so we can expect good volume once again. More importantly, his arsenal has quite improved.
Wide receiver Andre Johnson came aboard, as did rookie speedster Phillip Dorsett when the Colts drafted him in the first round. They join forces with T.Y. Hilton—last year's sixth-ranked wideout—and talented tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener.
Throw in Luck's rushing ability and we have a recipe for a repeat at the top of the quarterback heap in 2015.
All fantasy scores and rankings courtesy of FFToday.com.
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