UFC Fight Night 68 Preliminary Card Predictions
Another weekend, another UFC event. This time we head down to New Orleans for UFC Fight Night 68, live on Fox Sports 1.
Formerly headlined by now-UFC champion Daniel Cormier and Ryan Bader, the card now features a main bout between Dan Henderson and Tim Boetsch. The co-headliner pits exciting heavyweights Matt Mitrione and Ben Rothwell against each other.
Before we get to those fights, though, we have the preliminary card. After a .500 showing at last weekend's event in Brazil, we hope to emerge from this event at least over .500 to right the ship after a frustrating last couple of events.
With that, let's take a look at the fights and make some predictions for each bout.
2015 Riley's Record: 63-44
Last Event: UFC Fight Night 67 (3-3)
Jose Quinonez vs. Leonardo Morales
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A pair of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America runner-ups lead off the card at bantamweight, as Mexico's Jose Quinonez is set to take on Nicaraguan Leonardo Morales.
Quinonez is a striker who primarily boxes and uses his hands to batter opponents. He is powerful and lanky, a combination that allows him to strike from a distance and put people down after he accumulates damage.
He knocked out Bentley Syler and decisioned Marco Beltran en route to a 135-pound TUF finale bout with Alejandro Perez. However, Perez outhustled him, beating Quinonez by decision.
Morales is the more well-rounded of the two. While his striking is good, his advantage is likely on the mat, where he can utilize ground-and-pound to punish opponents.
He had a good run on the reality show, where he knocked out Rodolfo Rubio and bested show favorite Gabriel Benitez via decision. However, in the finals, he lost a unanimous decision to Yair Rodriguez at a weight class above where he is now.
Morales will need to elude the boxing of Quinonez and look to clinch. From there, he can suffocate and expose his cardio en route to a solid decision victory.
Prediction: Morales def. Quinonez via decision
Ricardo Abreu vs. Jake Collier
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The middleweights get the call to the cage next, as TUF Brazil 3 veteran Ricardo Abreu looks to score an impressive win over late replacement Jake Collier. He steps in for Daniel Sarafian, who suffered an injury in training leading into this fight.
Abreu is a jiu-jitsu ace who is one of the top guys running with Wanderlei Silva's crew. He frequently goes for takedowns and achieves them, where he throws big ground-and-pound and searches for submissions.
Abreu was a top competitor on the third season of TUF Brazil, where he knocked out Willian Steindorf and decisioned Guilherme Vasconcelos before suffering a split-decision loss to Marcio Alexandre in the semifinals. However, he participated at the live finale, where he choked out Wagner Silva to keep his official record undefeated.
Collier is also a ground fighter, though he is a wrestler. He is more of a ground-and-pound fighter to Abreu's submission fighter, though that's not to say Collier doesn't have a submission arsenal of his own.
After snagging the RFA Middleweight Championship and getting signed to the UFC, Collier suffered violent disappointment in his debut. After struggling to ground and control Vitor Miranda, he was floored and finished at the end of the first round with a vicious head kick by the muay thai striker.
Collier's wrestling can stifle Abreu, but the Brazilian's grappling and submissions make that a dangerous game for the American. Abreu can also get him down, and if he does, he can snag a finish in the process.
Prediction: Abreu def. Collier via submission
Joe Proctor vs. Justin Edwards
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A pair of TUF alumni will square off next, as Season 13 member Justin Edwards looks to avoid a pink slip against Season 15's Joe Proctor.
Proctor is a running mate of Joe Lauzon and emulates his style in many of his bouts. The TUF 15 veteran has a solid mix of boxing and jiu-jitsu, as he uses an aggressive style to make opponents uncomfortable.
He has been far more successful in the UFC than expected. Despite setbacks to Ramsey Nijem and Yancy Medeiros, Proctor has rattled off wins over Jeremy Larsen, Cristiano Marcello and Justin Salas.
As for Edwards, the Jorge Gurgel student is a mixture of wrestling and submissions, though his boxing has improved. He has an excellent guillotine choke that he uses frequently, as his neck grip is tough to break.
Like Proctor, Edwards has stuck around in the UFC longer than one would have expected. He has taken losses to Clay Harvison, John Maguire, Brandon Thatch and the aforementioned Nijem, but he does own wins over Josh Neer and Jorge Lopez.
Edwards has exceeded expectations in the UFC, but Proctor has really turned a corner from underdog to solid veteran. His takedown defense and more educated hands will carry him here.
Prediction: Proctor def. Edwards via decision
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Chris Wade vs. Christos Giagos
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The lightweights are up next, as RFA veteran Christos Giagos looks to make it two in a row against gritty grinder Chris Wade.
Giagos is a devastating striker with big power in his hands and knees. He is aggressive and has a high output rate, making him a tough fighter to keep up the pace with.
He entered the UFC after a destructive knockout of Dakota Cochrane to become the RFA lightweight champion. That earned him a spot on the UFC roster, where he has gone 1-1 with a chokeout of Jorge Oliveira that followed a submission loss to Gilbert Burns in his debut.
As for Wade, he is a wrestler who likes to grind on his opponents and wear on them. The Long Island, New York, native shoots for takedowns frequently and fights soundly on top, looking for submissions and Octagon control.
He is on a four-fight winning streak, with two of those victories in the UFC. He choked out Cain Carrizosa in his debut before grinding out a decision over Lipeng Zhang in January.
Giagos has the advantage on the feet, but he won't be able to avoid the mat against the constant pressure of Wade. The New Yorker may not win Fight of the Night, but he will beat Giagos.
Prediction: Wade def. Giagos via decision
Brian Ebersole vs. Omari Akhmedov
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A pair of middling welterweights look to break through to the other side in the next bout, as Brian Ebersole aims to derail the underrated Omari Akhmedov.
When it comes to experience, few UFC roster members have the number of fights that Ebersole has (51-16-1, 1 NC). He is a collegiate wrestler who runs with Tiger Muay Thai, showing his commitment to refine his stand-up. In fact, his signature move is the cartwheel kick, though we haven't seen him pull it out in a while.
He started his UFC career with four straight victories, but he is 1-2 in his last three. He beat John Howard in his most recent outing but dropped decisions to Rick Story and James Head in previous bouts.
He takes on Akhmedov, an underrated Dagestan native with good takedowns and immense power in his hands. He is tough as nails and prefers to finish fights, which usually allows him to avoid the judges.
He opened up his UFC career with a blistering knockout of Thiago Perpetuo, but Gunnar Nelson halted his momentum in his follow-up bout. Akhmedov then won a contentious decision over Mats Nilsson in his most recent bout, which should keep him on the roster for at least a couple of more bouts.
This is a much closer matchup than people think. Akhmedov can end anybody's night with one punch, but Ebersole's wrestling and unorthodox style will give him fits.
Prediction: Ebersole def. Akhmedov via submission
Shawn Jordan vs. Derrick Lewis
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The big boys will cap off the prelims next in a rematch, as power puncher Derrick Lewis takes on LSU football alum and heavy hitter Shawn Jordan.
These two fought before earlier on in their careers, with Jordan winning by decision. However, Lewis has improved since then, which means this match won't look anything like it did the first time.
There is a contrast in styles here, though power is a big part of both fighters' games. Both are big-time punchers, though Jordan prefers to clinch more than Lewis, who is a boxer.
Lewis is 3-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming to Matt Mitrione. Outside of that, The Black Beast has three brutal knockout wins over Jack May, Guto Inocente and Ruan Potts.
Jordan has been in the company longer after a stint in Strikeforce. He is 2-2 in his last four, beating Jared Cannonier and the aforementioned May while falling to Mitrione and Gabriel Gonzaga.
Don't expect the judges to get involved in this one. Both men sling heavy leather and have the penchant for knocking dudes out. Lewis will again be the victor in brutal fashion.
Prediction: Lewis def. Jordan via TKO
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