Belmont Stakes 2015: Early Storylines to Follow Ahead of Triple Crown's Last Leg
The 2015 Triple Crown season is nearing a conclusion. While American Pharoah's bid toward history may be the most resounding story leading up to June 6, there is plenty of other intrigue in the race as well.
It feels almost like Groundhog Day. Just one year ago, we were discussing the possibility of California Chrome ending the Triple Crown drought and becoming the first horse to sweep the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes since Affirmed in 1978. As we now know, he fell short and finished fourth, leaving racing fans disappointed for another year.
And yet here we are again. American Pharoah has the chance to deliver where California Chrome failed. With less than three weeks until the big day, however, a lot can happen and a lot can change. While his story is the headliner, there are others.
Read on as we take a look at the growing legend of American Pharoah and the other storylines to follow leading up to the Belmont Stakes.
Is Todd Pletcher Poised for Derby Redemption?
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Todd Pletcher saddled three horses in the Kentucky Derby and, when it was over, went home empty-handed. Materiality led the contingent with a sixth-place finish while his stablemates, Itsaknockout (ninth) and Carpe Diem (10th), finished behind him. After regrouping, Pletcher elected to skip the Preakness Stakes and focus his attention on the Belmont.
After torrential downpours hit Pimlico before the second jewel of the Triple Crown and the track rapidly deteriorated to sloppy, he told Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal that he was happy with his decision to have Materiality sit the race out.
"With those kinds of decisions you just never know, but with the downpour and everything, I was happy we were safely at home and got a good work into him."
With a loaded hand for the Belmont Stakes featuring a refreshed Materiality, potentially the highly regarded Carpe Diem and Peter Pan Stakes (Grade 2) winner Madefromlucky, he could be poised to play the spoiler.
Will the Spoiler Be a Horse That Skipped the Preakness?
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After American Pharoah narrowly won the Kentucky Derby, many trainers opted to skip the second jewel of the Triple Crown and focus their attention on Belmont Park and the Belmont Stakes. Frosted, Mubtaahij, Materiality, Carpe Diem and potentially others are all returning well-rested and ready to rebound after finishing behind American Pharoah.
All of these horses pose a legitimate threat. Though they are all unproven at 1 ½ miles just as American Pharoah is, several have the pedigree or running style to really excel at longer distances. Frosted was closing like a freight train in the Kentucky Derby and could have been even closer to the top three with just a little bit more real estate.
Of the contenders who competed in the Kentucky Derby but skipped the Preakness, Mubtaahij may be the most interesting. Of all of the horses pointed toward the Belmont Stakes, he has the most stamina-rich pedigree and could be at his best at the grueling distance of the Belmont Stakes.
What About the Dangerous New Shooters?
3 of 7Last year, after sitting out the first two jewels of the Triple Crown, Tonalist emerged as a star on the rise with a surprising victory in the Belmont Stakes. He used the Peter Pan Stakes (Grade 2) at Belmont Park as his prep race. Again that race could play a key role in the Belmont Stakes.
Todd Pletcher has added Madefromlucky to his Belmont Stakes arsenal after a sharp victory over a quality field in the Peter Pan. While he is an interesting contender, it is the runner-up, Conquest Curlinate, that may be the most dangerous.
A massive son of Curlin, the runner-up in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, Conquest Curlinate is developing both physically and mentally with each start. Though he was defeated in the Peter Pan, it was a professional effort for a lightly raced colt and he should continue to progress and improve. With several improving new shooters, they could be big contenders on June 6.
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Is Tale of Verve a Legitimate Long Shot?
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Tale of Verve is an interesting contender in the Belmont Stakes. He did not get into the Kentucky Derby, so trainer Dallas Stewart was forced to watch from the sidelines. He rewarded his trainer's confidence and finished the Preakness in second with 34-1 odds.
As Stewart told the Blood-Horse, his horse should excel with the additional distance. "We're looking forward to getting it done next time," Stewart said. "We think this horse will love a mile and a half."
There are plenty of questions surrounding this colt about whether his big runner-up effort in the Preakness Stakes was legitimate or if he was moved up by the off track. He will get a chance in the Belmont Stakes to prove that it was not a fluke effort. A repeat performance could make him a major threat.
Is the Third Time a Charm for Victor Espinoza?
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Jockey Victor Espinoza is in uncharted territory heading into this year's Belmont Stakes. He is the first jockey in history to head to Belmont Park with a mount who could potentially win the Triple Crown.
His first appearance with the pressure of a Triple Crown on his back was aboard War Emblem in 2002. All hope was lost when he stumbled at the start, destroying the chance for a Triple Crown that year. He returned to Belmont Park last year with the popular chestnut, California Chrome, but the best they could manage was fourth, the rigors of the Triple Crown obviously having taken their toll on the colt.
Just one year later, Espinoza is back for redemption and should at this point be no stranger to the pressure of a Triple Crown on the line. California Chrome in a lot of ways relaunched his career to atmospheric heights and his upward trajectory seems like it is continuing. After a criticized ride in the Kentucky Derby, Espinoza was cool, calm and collected in the Preakness Stakes and rode a textbook perfect race.
Can Bob Baffert Finally Win All Three?
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Trainer Bob Baffert has tasted disappointment several times in the Belmont Stakes. The veteran trainer has been in this position three times before with a Triple Crown on the line and is all too familiar with what it takes to win.
As he told Ed McNamara of Newsday, he seems to be taking a zen-like approach this year: "I've been there three times and I came up short, but I really don't think about it now. To me, it's like if it's meant to be, it's meant to be."
In 1997, Baffert watched as his popular gray Silver Charm, who appeared nearly unbeatable, got caught by Touch Gold. The next year was even more heartbreaking. Real Quiet, the colt least likely to be a star, had the lead in the Belmont Stakes and a Triple Crown seemed within his reach...until Victory Gallop rallied and won by the barest nose. In 2002, the race was over out of the gate when War Emblem and Victor Espinoza stumbled at the start.
Baffert's experience at Belmont Park has not been all bad, however. He saddled his big red superstar, Point Given, to win in 2001 and will try to add American Pharoah to his resume on June 6.
Will American Pharoah Rule in the Triple Crown?
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The question of whether American Pharoah gets his misspelled name in the history books is, of course, the most pressing leading up to the Belmont Stakes. Until he crosses the wire first, there are absolutely no guarantees. In horse racing, anything can happen.
Horse racing fans have endured several major disappointments in just the past several years alone. In 2012, I'll Have Another looked like he would be nearly unbeatable in the Belmont Stakes after two dominant victories. Instead, he scratched the day before the race with an injury and never ran again.
Last year, the racing world rallied behind the most unlikely superhero—California Chrome, the flashy chestnut colt from humble beginnings. California Chrome's fourth-place finish was a reminder of just how difficult it is to win all three races in such a short timespan. He was visibly tired from a tough campaign and faltered to a fresh rival in Tonalist.
Now, the hopes rest on American Pharoah. After looking vulnerable in his victory in the Kentucky Derby, he came back to silence the critics with a visually stunning victory in the Preakness Stakes. Now, there is just one mountain left to climb.
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