Triple Crown 2015: Comparing American Pharoah's Bid to Recent Attempts

In just over two weeks, Americans will drop everything for roughly two-and-a-half minutes in order to watch American Pharoah take the latest crack at ending a 37-year drought cast over the thoroughbred racing community.

Not since Affirmed back in 1978 have we seen a horse capture all three jewels of the coveted Triple Crown. However, since then, we've seen a whopping 14 horses make it all the way to Belmont before ultimately falling short of glory, per HorseRacingNation.com.

If the 14 horses that have fallen just short of a Triple Crown in those years wasn't indication enough, the grueling 1½-mile distance and quick turnaround time from the Preakness is a pretty good indicator as to why it's affectionately referred to as The Test of the Champion.

With American Pharoah's final hurdle less than three weeks away, it seemed apt that we take a look at how his Triple Crown bid compares to those who came before him.

Eventually I settled on three colts who all fell short in their efforts, those being War Emblem in 2002, Funny Cide in 2003 and, of course, California Chrome in 2014. In this piece, we'll take a look at each of these three Triple Crown bids, and find some points of comparison between them and this year's challenger: American Pharoah.

First up, War Emblem!

War Emblem (2002)

It's fitting that we'd compare War Emblem and his pursuit of a Triple Crown to American Pharoah's given the extremely similar set of circumstances that the two horses embody.

Like War Emblem, American Pharoah will saddle up rider Victor Espinoza as he looks to take a crack at the Belmont Stakes. The similarities don't stop there, though, as the then-three-year-old colt was trained by Bob Baffert, who will now take a third crack at the Triple Crown with Pharoah next month.

War Emblem and American Pharoah took very different paths to the Derby. The Our Emblem colt charted his path to the Derby, running four times prior to the Run for the Roses. In that time, War Emblem logged four wins but also ran off the board in three starts.

The Baffert trainee peaked at the right time, though, logging back-to-back victories in an allowance race at the now defunct Sportsman's Park and then in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby. War Emblem's next effort would be his best, though, as the grandson of Mr. Prospector would go on to lead the Kentucky Derby at every quarter-mile call.

Under a steady ride from Espinoza, War Emblem lulled the field to sleep. The duo posted progressively slower quarter-mile times every step along the way before running a slightly faster final quarter, in a time of 24.43 seconds.

That final quarter was enough for War Emblem to expand his lead out to four furlongs as they crossed the finish line.

In the Preakness, War Emblem showed off his versatility running second behind Menacing Dennis, who ran a blistering three-quarter mile in 1:10.60. Espinoza sent the Our Emblem colt out to the lead before the group entered the far turn, and, fortunately, was able to hold off a hard-charging Magic Weisner.

Though it was still a good effort, War Emblem ran a hard-fought race, and it showed his next time out in the Belmont.

Spent from making such a big early move in a race with a ton of pace, War Emblem had all he could do to muster up an eighth-place finish in the Belmont. The superstar three-year-old stumbled a little bit out of the gate, but recovered nicely in order to grab a spot just in behind the lead, made multiple passes at the leader, Wiseman's Ferry, and had nothing left in the tank when the group entered the far turn.

War Emblem crumbled and settled for an eighth-place finish.

The big difference between War Emblem and American Pharoah is that Pharoah's victory in the Preakness isn't likely to have taken nearly as much out of him as War Emblem's did. With that extra bit of energy, and a more experienced Espinoza, expect a much better showing from AP come June 6.

Funny Cide (2003)

Outside of California Chrome, Funny Cide might very well be the most popular "near miss" in the hunt for racing's Triple Crown.

Without a win to his credit, the Distorted Humor colt came out of nowhere to win the Kentucky Derby as a relative long shot—a $2 bet paid out $27.60, per Equibase.com. Trained by Barclay Tagg, Funny Cide ran an impressive Derby, never trailed by more than two lengths and kept up with a quick pace set by the leading group of Brancusi and Peace Rules.

Jose Santos directed the colt through a two-wide final turn, and the duo kicked out into the three path at the top of the stretch and finished drawing away from the second- and third-place finishers: Empire Maker and Peace Rules.

The "underdog" tag vanished quickly, though, as Funny Cide went on to thoroughly demolish his competition in the Preakness. Funny Cide and Santos overcame a rough start, rated just a length back of the early leader, Peace Rules, grabbed the lead during the final turn and pulled away for an astonishing victory by nearly 10 lengths.

The New-York-bred colt came home for the Belmont and lost a hard-fought battle for the final jewel of the Triple Crown. Funny Cide ran an odd race, as Santos sent him out directly to the lead where he tried to wire the six-horse field.

Funny Cide posted quick fractions and set the race up perfectly for Empire Maker to snatch up a three-quarter-length win, while Tagg's colt had to settle for a third-place finish after fading hard.

Ironically enough, Empire Maker would go on to sire Pioneerof The Nile. As you may or may not know by now, Pionnerof the Nile is the sire of American Pharoah, making Empire Maker the grandsire to AP.

That said, that's where the similarities between these two sets of circumstances end. Funny Cide was never supposed to win the Derby, in fact, the Preakness wasn't even a foregone conclusion, as he went off a slight favorite over second-choice Peace Rules. 

Pharoah, on the other hand, has been a runaway favorite in both the Derby and the Preakness, and again figures to be a heavily-bet favorite in the Belmont.

California Chrome (2014)

Last year presented us with one of the most exciting Triple Crown threats in recent memory.

Like American Pharoah, California Chrome was a heavy favorite coming into the Derby. The superstar colt also saddled up Victor Espinoza for his trek through the Triple Crown races, and he presents us with arguably the closest point of comparison for any of these Triple Crown threats.

In the Derby, Chrome and Pharoah's race replays are almost identical until the stretch run where Chrome pulled away by five lengths before gearing down over the finish line, logging a 1¾-length victory. Pharoah, on the other hand, didn't take the lead until around the 100-yard mark.

The Preakness is where the two really started to separate, though. Chrome ran against a larger field, but outside of Bayern—who ran into some big-time early trouble—and Social Inclusion, it was similar in terms of the top-heavy nature of the one AP faced.

Chrome ran over a dry, fast dirt track, sat the perfect trip, and reeled in the leaders early en route to a one-length victory over the second-placed Ride on Curlin.

The form Pharoah displayed should be fresh in your memory, but it's worth noting that the Pioneerof The Nile colt ran over a very sloppy, unforgiving dirt track at Pimlico, and was still able to walk—1:58.46 is practically a brisk walk for a high-class thoroughbred—to a seven-length victory.

Now, we all know what happened to Chrome last year, as Tonalist was able to snatch up an upset victory in last year's Belmont.

Chrome didn't run his best race, and although he got a second-place call at the quarter-mile marker, it became abundantly clear after the turn for home that Chrome was not going to be victorious on this day.

The eventual fourth-place finisher got bottled up in the backstretch, made a two-wide move through the latter stages of the backstretch run, kicked five wide through the final turn and lost a lot of ground. He did eventually finish just 1¾ lengths back of Tonalist, but no amount of distance added or subtracted was going to help Chrome win this race.

This year, Pharoah will look to write a different narrative for himself. The current favorite for the three-year-old championship is also a 10-11 favorite to win the Belmont, according to OddsShark.com, but he'll have to hold off a slew of quality contenders.

Those contenders are, generally speaking, fresher than AP, and some—most notably Materiality and Frosted—already have wins over the Belmont dirt track.

It won't be easy, but if he's to overcome the inevitable comparisons to the likes of Chrome, Funny Cide and War Emblem, American Pharoah will have to run one of, if not the best race of his career next month.

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