Creature Vs. Creature: A Duck's Take on Oregon-Boise State

Oregon and Boise State match up for the second time in the past two seasons. The game promises to be a highly competitive matchup between two Top 25 teams on the first day of College Football this Thursday.

Last year Boise State pulled out the win in Autzen Stadium, after going up early on the Ducks, and after the Ducks were down to just two quarterbacks. Oregon saw a spirited comeback attempt lead by freshman Darron Thomas in the fourth quarter, but were unable to make up the deficit.

Thursday’s game is being played in Boise and will feature two teams that want to start the season off with a win. The Ducks have been talking about revenge in the media for last season’s loss.

In the media, both sides’ players have been talking about the game, especially the hit that knocked Masoli out of the game early with a concussion last season. I won’t bring up the discussion again, but last seasons’ issues should be put to rest on the field.  Home field advantage should play some part Thursday, but will not be a major factor in the game.

Game time is 7:15 on ESPN.

Boise State Will Win If…  

They can force the Ducks to go to the air.

This is the main factor I can see where the Ducks do not win on Thursday. When the Ducks were forced to go to the air in 2008 against USC (amazing defense, front seven too strong), Cal (great defense, running game not effective against 3-4), and Boise State (strong defense, playing from behind) all three games ended in losses.

I expect the passing game to be better this season, but if the Ducks are forced to be one dimensional it doesn’t look good.

Oregon’s defense can’t defend the play action pass.

The one point on the defense that consistently killed the Ducks in 2008 was the play action pass. Boise State and USC beat the Ducks defense numerous times last season with play action passes deep to wide receivers and tight ends. Free safety TJ Ward needs to improve his pass defense this season to take away the main kink in the Ducks chain of armor on defense.

Boise State Will Lose If…  

The Ducks can have a strong game running the ball.

It should be no surprise that Oregon is going to look to ride the back of LeGarrette Blount in the running game. Oregon was very effective last season running the ball and nothing should change this season.

The Oregon offensive line has been talked about as a questionable unit, but I feel that Coach Greatwood has the players ready to go and shouldn’t see much more than a few typical mistakes that are usually made in the first game.

Jeremiah Masoli can make key plays in the passing game.

While the focus on offense is going to be in the running game for the Ducks, the passing game is going to be the most interesting to watch. Jeremiah Masoli had a great final three games throwing the ball and is looking to find a talented group of receivers more often this season.

To keep the defense off balance the Ducks are going to need to make some big plays through the air and Jeremiah Masoli looks comfortable in the pocket this season.

The X Factor

LaMichael James: The redshirt freshmen running back has been impressive throughout fall practice.  He has been receiving praise from Coach Kelly and various players on the team.

He is a small “change-up” kind of running back that is incredibly quick and hard for defenders to see out of the backfield. I expect LaMichael to be on the field often and to make at least one game changing play for the Ducks on Thursday.

Prediction

I also expect this game to be close throughout most of the game. I see Oregon finally getting a breakthrough in the running game late in the third quarter.  The offensive line will finally gel and start wearing down the Broncos defense.  The defense will come up with some timely stops and the Ducks will hold off the Broncos for the win.

Oregon 38, Boise State 27

For the Boise side of this “Creature vs. Creature” check out Drew Morgan’s piece.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/246613-creature-vs-creature-a-bronco-on-oregon-boise-state