Belmont Stakes 2015: Early Predictions for Expected Contenders
Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner American Pharoah enters the 2015 Belmont Stakes looking to become the first horse in 37 years to claim the elusive Triple Crown.
It won't be an easy task.
Historically speaking, the odds aren't in American Pharoah's favor. A total of 23 horses have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown only to come away empty-handed at Belmont Park in New York—most recently, California Chrome in 2014—while just 11 have earned horse racing's highest honor—most recently, Affirmed won in 1978.
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Interestingly enough, American Pharoah's supporting cast is rather familiar with this situation.
Trainer Bob Baffert has previously entered three horses with Triple Crown aspirations in the Belmont Stakes, while jockey Victor Espinoza has attempted the feat twice before. The duo worked together during War Emblem's bid for the Triple Crown in 2002.
They were unsuccessful in all occasions.
Espinoza recalled a familiar trend in the Belmont Stakes over the years during an interview with the NYRA Press Office, via BelmontStakes.com, "Unfortunately, when I get there with the horses that I've been coming back, they seem to get a little tired when they get to the Belmont."
So, here's the burning question: Will American Pharoah defy the odds and finally end the Triple Crown drought?
Based on what we've seen through the first two legs, and taking the Belmont's expected contenders into consideration, it's a strong possibility.
Here's a very early look at predictions for the third jewel of the Triple Crown:
| 1 | American Pharoah |
| 2 | Materiality |
| 3 | Frosted |
| 4 | Carpe Diem |
| 5 | Tale of Verve |
| 6 | Madefromlucky |
| 7 | Conquest Curlinate |
| 8 | Mubtaahij |
| 9 | Keen Ice |
| 10 | Frammento |
There we have it. Based on these predictions, we'll finally see a Triple Crown winner—many of us for the first time. No, it's not wishful thinking. There are plenty of reasons to believe American Pharoah has what it takes to emerge victorious in the 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes.
Fatigue is certainly the biggest concern here. The Derby was tough on its contenders, and American Pharoah did have an abundance of ground to make up in the race, starting from far outside and running three wide at Churchill Downs. Then there was a matter of his blazing start in the Preakness, as Espinoza had to make him run hard out of the gate to avoid getting caught up in traffic.
Well, despite those obstacles, the colt was still able to show remarkable closing speed at Pimlico, pulling away from the pack with relative ease down the final stretch. American Pharoah's incredible stamina and graceful gallop will go a long way in the Belmont Stakes, as those attributes are necessary to compete with fresh-legged horses in a much longer race.
But what about the competition?
Trainer Todd Pletcher made headlines when he decided to pull all four of his horses from the Preakness. Now, two of those horses—Materiality and Carpe Diem—are expected to participate in the Belmont Stakes after getting some post-Derby rest.
Materiality may be the biggest threat to American Pharoah in New York. Unbeaten entering the Derby, Materiality found plenty of success by running near the front of the pack and maintaining enough endurance to finish strong. However, the Florida Derby winner stumbled out of the gate at Churchill Downs and fell to the rear of the pack. That ended his chances immediately; however, he did fight back to finish in sixth place.
The son of Belmont winner Afleet Alex, Materiality has the pedigree to run the race's longer distance, and he enters the race nicely rested. The colt has a strong chance to upset American Pharoah at Belmont, but his inexperience and recent inconsistency out of the gate could prevent that from happening.
Carpe Diem is a bit of a wild card in the Belmont. The colt was brilliant earlier in the year, winning the Tampa Bay Derby by five lengths and the Blue Grass Stakes by three lengths. However, he inexplicably finished 10th in the Kentucky Derby after a dreadful performance. His ability to bounce back is the question here.
Frosted is an interesting story. The colt finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby, despite sitting in the 15th position with just a half-mile remaining. His late run was incredibly impressive, as he gained ground on American Pharoah and others; however, considering his sprinting pedigree, he may not be able to keep it up in the longer Belmont Stakes.
The field of contenders in this year's Belmont Stakes is quite talented, but each expected participant has some limitations. While American Pharoah may be a bit fatigued entering the race, he's still the most complete horse in the field, and that will lead to his eventual Triple Crown triumph.
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