Stephen Strasburg's Prospect Profile: Is He for Real?

Not since the likes of Dwight Gooden, Mark Prior, and even Felix Hernandez has a prospect arrived with as much hype as Stephen Strasburg.

At 6'4", 220 pounds, the San Diego State phenom boasts some of the most impressive statistics from a college player in recent history.

Take his 23-strikeout performance in 2008 or the fact that in 2009 he struck out 88 batters in just over 42 innings, generating into an 18.7 K/9 IP for the year. Now how a pitcher produces in college means very little in how much impact he will make in the big leagues, but there is a lot to like here.

Fastball Velocity

For starters, Strasburg’s fastball routinely reaches triple digits while topping out on occasion at 102 mph. What makes Strasburg’s fastball so devastating is the notable amount of movement he gets on such a pitch with late sink—as if it wasn’t hard enough for hitters to hit 100 mph fastballs.

Unlike Tim Lincecum, who has to use maximum effort from his body to generate velocity, at 6'4", Strasburg uses his powerful base to produce a smooth fluid pitching motion to conserve effort.

Fastball Command

Various pitchers in the past with triple-digit velocity, such as Joel Zumaya and A.J.Burnett, had control problems early in their careers because of their pitching speed. In contrast, the faster Strasburg seems to pitch, the better his remarkable command seems to get.

In 2007 Strasburg’s WHIP was a minuscule 0.89, dropping in 2008 to 0.79 and finally a microscopic 0.75 this year. By routinely being able to hit the corners with his fastball, Strasburg has the rare luxury of being able to achieve a strike whether it is swung on and missed or simply watched.

Secondary Pitches

So we’ve established Strasburg has an extraordinary fastball, how about the rest of his stuff? Strasburg features a plus-slider that he throws at 93 mph, which at that speed is close to unhittable for right-handed batters.

While Strasburg does not have as much control with his slider as he does his fastball, he often uses it as an out pitch for batters awaiting the heat. Strasburg also offers an average changeup that looks above average only because of his fastball, while trying to add an ever-improving curveball into his repertoire.

Injury Propensity

The biggest concern for Strasburg at this point has to be his possibility for injury. A power pitcher who throws 100 mph regularly is always at risk to shoulder injuries and forearm stiffness.

As of right now, Strasburg’s pitching mechanics look tremendous, which has probably saved him so far in college, but he will need to continue high strength conditioning once he reaches the majors in order to lower his risk for injury.

Big League Predictions

In my opinion, Strasburg would be better suited to lower the velocity on his fastball to 96-98 mph in order to create more movement and continue to lower his injury risk. This would also give him the chance to gain confidence in his secondary pitches as his career progresses.

Another factor that could play into Strasburg’s major league performance is his mental fortitude. Will he feel the pressure of being a No. 1 draft pick? Will he mentally break down in a losing environment such as Washington?

The way it looks right now, the only person that can stop Stephen Strasburg from true greatness is Stephen Strasburg.

ETA

Seeing Strasburg in 2011 would be the smart move for Washington, but 2010 is a great possibility.

Place in Rotation

A true ace in every sense of the word, a difference maker and perennial All-Star.

Potential Major League Stats

By 2011, expect seasonal averages of: 15-plus wins, five-plus CG, a sub-3.00 ERA, and a minimum of 250 strikeouts.

Fantasy Advice

If Strasburg gets called up to pitch in September, picking him up in keeper leagues (AL/NL or mixed) will be like buying Microsoft stock in the early '90s.

Risky Prediction

By 2015, Strasburg will break the single game strikeout record of 20 currently held by Kerry Wood and Roger Clemens.