American Pharoah's Biggest Obstacles to Triple Crown Triumph in Belmont Stakes
As anticipation sets in for another chance to see a contender break a 37-year drought and win horse racing's Triple Crown, all American Pharoah and Bob Baffert can do is prepare as if any other race were on the horizon.
It's not, but no reason to change up now. The sport's top horse came from behind to steal the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, then exploded out of the gates in sloppy conditions to lead the pack in start-to-finish fashion in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.
Next up is the Belmont Stakes in New York, perhaps the hardest stretch the Triple Crown can throw at a contender these days. After a look at the Preakness results and replay, let's dig into why Belmont's so difficult.
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| 1 | 1 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | ---- |
| 2 | 5 | Tale of Verve | Joel Rosario | Dallas Stewart | 7 |
| 3 | 7 | Divining Rod | Javier Castellano | Arnaud Delacour | 8 |
| 4 | 2 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 15 1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | Mr. Z | Corey Nakatani | D. Wayne Lukas | 17 1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 18 1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 45 |
| 8 | 6 | Bodhisattva | Trevor McCarthy | Jose Corrales | 48 1/4 |
American Pharoah's Biggest Obstacles
Race Length
Going into Pimlico, it was easy to presume American Pharoah and jockey Victor Espinoza wouldn't encounter much of an issue with the Preakness coming in at 1 3/16 miles, shorter than the Kentucky Derby's 1 1/4 miles.
The only issue with the line of thought was a quick turnaround, but Espinoza chose the wire-to-wire strategy, and Baffert's top horse put on perhaps the best performance of his career.
The legendary jockey going for his historic third Triple Crown attempt revealed why he approached the Preakness with the strategy, per USA Today's Dan Wolken:
"He did it pretty easy. I didn't have to ride him that hard. I had to encourage him out of the gate because I wanted to get out of that mess in there. It seemed he was good after the race. He looks pretty good. But it's not easy, and I am not thinking about (the Belmont) right now. I'm just having fun.
"
Espinoza may fail if he tries for a repeat performance.
The Belmont comes in at 1 1/2 miles, a marathon of sorts for the sport and the reason it's nicknamed The Test of the Champion.
It's impossible to know if American Pharoah will be able to keep his speed at a competitive level over the course of a long race, especially thanks to the following two factors.
Rest
As the third of three races in a little more than a month, the Belmont tends to chew up and spit out Triple Crown hopefuls these days.
Even if Belmont contenders skipped the Preakness to stand a better chance in New York, the rough trek with little rest tends to hurt horses such as American Pharoah. As an illustration by USA Today Sports shows, a few of the past contenders suffered health issues preventing them from putting up a serious fight:
There's not much in the way of negative press out of American Pharoah's camp right now, but a lot can happen in the three weeks it takes for the Belmont to arrive.
While American Pharoah bested two deep fields, other contenders such as Materiality, Frosted and Carpe Diem rested in preparation.
Add in the normal rigors of the quick turnaround and other contenders, and it's easy to see why the drought stands at 37 years and counting.
Post Position
It's easy to scoff at the notion that post position could hold American Pharoah back.
After all, he slotted in an unfavorable range at Churchill Downs, even shifting into the winless No. 17 hole due to scratches while shuffling around. Still, he paced off the lead and turned it on down the stretch to win.
Then American Pharoah drew the rail at Pimlico, but as the above video shows, he exploded out of the gates to avoid getting stuck and dictated the pace of the race.
While great showings, the length of the Belmont suggests Espinoza won't be able to fall far behind and still catch up, nor will he be able to run a wire-to-wire performance like in Baltimore. Even Baffert admits the difficulty of the task ahead, as well as the weight of expectations.
“It’s going to be tough,” he said, per Joe Drape of the New York Times. “I know everybody right now is sharpening their knives, getting ready.”
In reality, the task American Pharoah faces isn't any different than the one those before him confronted. Who knows? He could run the Belmont with ease, blowing away the field in the end and making history.
History stands in the way, though, the most difficult factors identifiable but not so easy to overcome.
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