Monaco Grand Prix 2015: 5 Bold Predictions for Monte Carlo Race
Nico Rosberg's victory in Spain gave the Formula One title race a much-needed boost—and there's no reason to think he can't take another win at this weekend's 2015 Monaco Grand Prix.
As in Barcelona, qualifying is set to be key in his fight with Lewis Hamilton. The German took pole here last season in somewhat controversial circumstances, but he has the confidence and ability to do it properly this time out.
Away from the title hunt, five drivers are yet to score. The two McLarens and Manors are joined in the pointless pot by Pastor Maldonado—surely at least one of the five will break his duck in Monaco?
Read on to see who we expect that to be and for our other thoughts on how we think the coming weekend will pan out.
Nico Rosberg Will Win Again
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Nico Rosberg won last time out in Spain and can do the same around the streets of Monaco.
Of the current generation of drivers, only Fernando Alonso can match Rosberg's record in the Principality. But while the Spaniard's wins came many years ago, Rosberg has won the last two Monaco Grands Prix—and finished second in 2012.
Despite driving his fair share of average cars, he has never qualified lower than eighth and boasts five points finishes from nine attempts.
It's questionable whether he would have won in 2014 with the "error" he made in qualifying, but when that happened, Rosberg had been beaten four times in a row by Lewis Hamilton and was perhaps a little desperate.
With the Catalunya victory providing a timely confidence boost, he won't need any controversial moments this time out.
Pastor Maldonado Won't Crash
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Pastor Maldonado has a reputation for crashing a lot, and the bare statistics from 2015 suggest he's on course for a "personal best."
The Venezuelan, dubbed "Crashtor" by many fans, had his race ended or ruined by contact in Australia, Malaysia, China and Spain. He also had a few touches in Bahrain.
It would be reasonable to consider Monaco, with its unforgiving barriers and lack of run-off, as the perfect location to keep this unfortunate run going—but Maldonado has usually been an innocent victim this year, and all worms turn sooner or later.
In his rookie year, Autosport described him as a "Monaco specialist"—not inaccurate given his record in the Principality. Maldonado won from pole in Monaco on only his fifth GP2 start, qualified the awful 2011 Williams eighth on his first F1 visit and looked set for sixth before Lewis Hamilton punted him off a few laps from the end.
It's a place he usually goes well at—so a clean race and a couple of points isn't unrealistic.
At Least 15 Proper Overtakes
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Overtaking isn't easy in Monaco. The circuit is extremely narrow, the DRS zone is barely 500 metres in length and even when the cars do pick up a decent head of steam as they exit the tunnel, the braking zone is bumpy and trying to pass is very risky.
Per Clip the Apex, the Monaco Grand Prix of 2003 didn't have any overtakes at all.
But 2015 has shown us the current breed of drivers aren't shy about sticking their nose down the inside at the first sniff of an opportunity. Furthermore, differing tyre strategies could see certain drivers with a pace advantage at various times during the race.
Then there's the old spectre of team orders...
By the standards of a normal grand prix, 15 passes for position isn't a lot. In Monaco it's plenty—and we expect to see at least that figure on Sunday.
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A Virtual Safety Car
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The narrow Monaco circuit is lined with crash barriers, and run-off exists at only a couple of locations around the the 3.34 kilometre course. The marshals in the Principality are among the best in the world at getting cars out of the way, but the safety car is still a common sight.
It made a single appearance in 2012, three in 2013 and two in 2014.
As mentioned on the previous slide, the 2015 drivers appear more than willing to have a go if an opportunity to overtake presents itself. They may be a touch more careful in Monaco, but a racing driver is a racing driver—instinct can never be entirely reined in and someone will inevitably make a mistake.
But the circuit has better crane coverage than any other—meaning an incident could be dealt with and a car removed without a lot of marshals on the track.
This presents a greatly reduced risk—so perhaps we'll see the virtual safety car make its race debut this weekend.
McLaren Will Score a Point
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We had McLaren down for a points finish in Spain, but it didn't quite happen. A combination of factors—mostly, plain old lack of speed—saw the Woking team extend their barren run to five races.
But before Fernando Alonso was forced to retire, he was reasonably well-placed after a very long opening stint. The Spaniard was just five seconds down on eventual ninth-placed man Carlos Sainz Jr. and had tyres seven laps fresher.
So maybe he could have scraped 10th?
McLaren's two drivers have 27 Monaco starts between them, and both Alonso and Jenson Button have won here in the past.
With their weak Honda engine expected to be less of a factor around the tight, slow turns of Monte Carlo and La Condamine (the other district that hosts part of the track), they can't be counted out for points this weekend.
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