Belmont Stakes 2015: Predictions for Shocking Contenders to American Pharoah

After winning in convincing fashion over a sloppy track in the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes this past weekend, American Pharoah's sights are now set on completing the sweep of horse racing's Triple Crown.

While many have tried—Pharoah is the 14th horse since 1978 to win the Derby and the Preakness—we haven't seen a horse take all three Triple Crown jewels since Affirmed back in 1978. That said, this horse feels different.

AP ran up against some stiff competition in a loaded field of three-year-olds in this year's Kentucky Derby, and although the Preakness field was very top-heavy, the Pioneerof the Nile colt won in a romp over an unfavorable surface.

So, will he complete the sweep? Maybe.

The Belmont Stakes is, by a wide margin, the most difficult of the three races.

After the Preakness, a would-be Triple Crown winner has just three weeks to gear up for a grueling 1 ½-mile race. Throw in the fact that, generally speaking, you're running up against much fresher competition—ask California Chrome's co-owner, Steve Coburn, about that one—and you've got arguably the most difficult task you could possibly throw at a young colt.

Every trainer with a high-class colt is lining up to take their shot at the king of the three-year-old world, and there are a few who have a legitimate shot to knock Pharoah off of his throne. Three in particular—two Todd Pletcher-trained colts (Materiality and Madefromlucky) and one by Kiaran McLaughlin (Frosted)—look to have the inside track at an upset, and we'll look at them here.

First, a sixth-place finisher in this year's Kentucky Derby, Materiality.

Materiality

This colt, and the one we'll look at after him, pose the most obvious threat to Pharoah's reign atop the three-year-old racing world. Materiality, a three-year-old son of Afleet Alex has outstanding bloodlines and a recent track record that suggests he's going to run quite gamely at Belmont.

Afleet Alex, Materiality's sire, was a Belmont winner himself back in 2005, and Materiality looks to have inherited a lot of his father's better traits.

Last time out, Materiality received a bad trip, but he still worked out a sixth-place finish in an extremely crowded Kentucky Derby field. Prior to that, though, Materiality was a winner in the Grade 1 Florida Derby as well as his two previous races, the Islamorada and a maiden special weight, both at Gulfstream Park.

The best indicator of how Materiality might perform, though, came in that Grade 1 win over the Gulfstream dirt track (shown in the video below):

Materiality got out to an early lead, controlled the pace and ran a perfect race, working out a 1 ½-length victory over a stacked field, including Upstart, Ami's Flatter and Itsaknockout.

The win was impressive in the way that Materiality first pushed, then controlled the pace. Although the finishing time (1:52.30) was a full five seconds slower than the record time (1:47.00, per Equibase.com), don't be fooled: Materiality is a very quick horse, and if he's able to stay up near the front and stalk the pace, he'll have a big say in the race's final outcome.

The Todd Pletcher trainee has been trending toward the Belmont ever since he was removed from consideration for the Preakness, and according to Blood-Horse, that's exactly what Pletcher intends for Materiality:

Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin also has similar plans for our next colt, Frosted.

Frosted

Frosted is the wise-guy pick to upset American Pharoah in this year's Belmont.

Like Materiality, this Tapit colt has some outstanding bloodlines. The Tapit-Pulpit-A.P. Indy-Seattle Slew sire line is one of the hottest in the business right now, and it has produced multiple graded-stakes winners, including, but not limited to, Tapiture, Untapable, Constitution, Coup de Grace, Tapizar, Hansen and, last year's Belmont winner, Tonalist.

In short, Tapit hits on just about everything he produces, and Frosted is no exception. Beyond that, every one of the horses I mentioned in that sire line above has won the Belmont. Last year, Tonalist made it five straight in the sire line, but Frosted has a chance to add to the growing list of Belmont Stakes winners in his bloodline.

In addition to the impressive bloodlines, this young colt was the only horse in this year's Kentucky Derby field to actually close into the deathly slow fractions set by the leading group of Dortmund and Firing Line, and on top of that, he's already sporting a win over the Belmont dirt track.

In this year's Wood Memorial (shown below), Frosted ran one of the most impressive Derby prep races of any colt on the Derby trail. 

Stuck running three wide throughout the first turn and most of the backstretch run, Frosted steered wide into the four path as the field entered the second turn, all the while gaining ground. With a length between him and the leader, Tencendur, as they entered the stretch run, Frosted showed some impressive drive and was able to work out a two-length victory over a Derby runner (Tencendur) and a late Derby scratch, El Kabeir.

Running that wide around the track virtually guarantees the fact that Frosted ran the equivalent of a 1 ½-mile race. With a win over the Belmont track in hand, and his pedigree, Frosted is a huge threat to Pharoah's chances at completing the Triple Crown.

Madefromlucky

The final horse to look out for as Pharaoh aims to make history is Madefromlucky. 

Though they've hooked up twice in the past—Pharoah demolished him both times—the Lookin At Lucky colt looks to have improved significantly since he was last bested by 6 ¼ lengths in the Grade 1 Arkansas Stakes back in mid-March.

Following that race, Madefromlucky missed the Derby entirely and opted for the Grade 2 Peter Pan (shown below) run at Belmont Park on May 9.

The move looks to be a wise one, as the Todd Pletcher-trained colt ran one of his best races to date. The young colt ran two wide and three back through most of the backstretch, made a three-wide final turn and a four-wide kick coming into the stretch run.

After ¾ of a mile in 1:10.33, Madefromlucky made a mad dash for the lead. He and jockey Javier Castellano gained the lead by the start of the stretch run and widened his lead out to a length by the time they crossed the finish line.

Madefromlucky was the third choice coming into the race, per Equibase.com, but in a race that broke relatively true to form, he was easily the best runner on the track.

It's worth noting that last year's Belmont Stakes winner, Tonalist, took the same track to the Belmont Stakes—he won the Peter Pan last year after skipping the Derby—and although he won against a better field than the one Madefromlucky faced, the two have some undeniable similarities.

If Tonalist's success last year is any indication, Madefromlucky could be tough to beat in the Belmont this year.

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