American Pharoah's Blueprint to Be Ready to Win the 2015 Belmont Stakes
When looking at American Pharoah’s chances to win the Triple Crown, there’s 36 years worth of reasons why he can’t do it, why he’ll disappoint, why we’ll be feeling empty and defeated around 6:30 p.m. on June 6, D-Day.
Maybe it’s best for Team Pharoah to examine why other horses since 1978 haven’t done it to ensure they have the best possible shot at ending this Triple Crown drought.
Smarty Jones failed because of suicidal jockey tactics. Big Brown failed because he got stepped on, didn’t handle the heat and had been taken off his usual dose of steroids. War Emblem fell to his nose at the break. California Chrome didn’t have enough juice.
New shooters and Preakness skippers always land at the Belmont, and they always factor in the outcome. So what can American Pharoah do to rise above?
Read on for American Pharoah’s blueprint to win the Triple Crown.
Rest
1 of 5American Pharoah’s greatest asset coming into the Kentucky Derby was his relative freshness and the ease with which he won his only two prep races of 2015. He won the Rebel Stakes in the mud and drew clear.
When he tacked up for the Arkansas Derby, he relaxed just off the speed and then drew away in a hand ride. That sent him to Kentucky with an ideal running style and with plenty of reserves. He needed every bit of it.
Baffert said in Jennie Rees' Courier-Journal story:
"He was more tired after the Derby. The Derby, he was blowing pretty hard, he was pretty hot. It was taxing on him. But he hadn't had a hard race. So he got a hard race, and (Saturday), Victor let him run. And he's hard to gauge because he's really a quiet horse. He's not going to come out here and jump around. He's very mellow. He's a very intelligent horse.
"
Turning for home, Firing Line swung outside to make American Pharoah charge down the center of the track. He was in full exertion-mode to get past Firing Line, and those reserves he stored through the winter and spring proved vital.
During the Preakness, he sprinted out of the gate and went through blistering fractions through a half-mile, but jockey Victor Espinoza slowed down those internal quarter-mile fractions just enough so he could open up down the stretch.
Now American Pharoah will walk, jog and gallop until it’s time to get serious again.
Training
2 of 5
American Pharoah is fit, and he won’t need much by way of breezing.
Trainer Bob Baffert won’t treat him with kid gloves either, but American Pharoah will simply need to gallop and jog, to know that this thing isn’t over yet.
Maybe during the week of the Belmont Stakes Baffert will turn him loose for a three- or four-furlong breeze.
That won’t be for fitness, it will be to keep him sharp. When these horses get that blowout, they know something is around the corner. Maybe what’s more important is this: Try to best simulate the pre-race saddling scenario. Horsemen call this “schooling,” but they may need to take this a step further.
In 2009, when I was reporting on my book about Saratoga and Rachel Alexandra, the connections for Rachel Alexandra announced that they planned on schooling her because they knew it would be a raucous scene. They encouraged people to surround the walkway and surround the paddock. They wanted to condition her for the big race, the Woodward Stakes.
Baffert may want to take a similar tact and announce it, try to get under American Pharoah’s skin Wednesday or Thursday before the big day when 90,000 will be screaming.
The Belmont paddock is almost like a bowl, and if Baffert can orchestrate a mock Belmont Stakes scenario with noise, people and those brown cotton balls, that could take the edge of Pharoah when history beckons.
Transport
3 of 5
American Pharoah will fly back to Louisville on Monday morning, where he’ll stable at Churchill Downs and train over that surface. This will keep him away from New York and away from the needling of the usual press, but also the press that have no idea what they’re doing or what they're talking about.
He’ll then fly from Louisville to New York on June 3, three days before the main event. Baffert said in Jennie Rees’ Courier-Journal story:
"We have to keep our fingers crossed to keep him healthy and happy. To me, New York, I've already been through all that. I know what to expect…. I don't want to take him up there unless he's doing really doing well. If I put him on that means he's doing really, really good. I'd do it for here. If he hadn't been training well for here I wouldn't have run him in the Preakness.
"
With only a few days to go, he'll need to get...
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Acclimated to the Racing Surface
4 of 5
Since he won’t be shipping into Belmont Park until the Wednesday before the race, American Pharoah will need to feel the dirt as soon as possible.
Big Sandy, Belmont’s nickname, refers to its size, but also its deep, loamy track surface. It’s the biggest track in North America with long, sweeping turns.
It’s more of an issue for the jockey than anything. There’s a tendency to move too soon on the turn. Many riders make their aggressive move at the ⅜th's pole, but at Belmont that comes a bit later than they’re used to so Victor Espinoza must exercise patience.
This is his third try at the Triple Crown and second time in a row. He was close with California Chrome a year ago, so he knows what it takes. American Pharoah just needs to take to the track and let his jockey tell him when to pull the trigger.
Encyclopedic Knowledge of All Threats
5 of 5
Man, will there ever be threats. Here’s what Team Pharoah will need to keep in check leading up to the race:
The Crowd
A great unintended consequence of the attendance cap of 90,000 is that there could be anywhere from 10,000 to 30,000 fewer people creating noise and distracting a skittish horse.
Keeping him calm will be key.
The Weather
They can’t control this one. It can be anything on Belmont Stakes Day. It can be painfully humid as it was in 2008. It can rain as it did in 2003. It can be perfect as it was in 2014.
American Pharoah handled the warmth of Derby Day and the monsoon that came through on Preakness Day.
He should run his race even if it snows in June.
Post Position
It’s a short run to the clubhouse turn, so an outside post could stack American Pharoah wide depending on where the competing speed is in the race.
If Espinoza must hustle him out of the gate like he did in the Preakness, that could spell danger late in the race.
Materiality
This lightly raced colt surprised everyone by running sixth in the Derby in just his fourth career start. Trainer Todd Pletcher skipped the Preakness with him to take a shot at the Belmont. He seems reminiscent of Palace Malice in 2013.
He has early speed and will be right up on the pace. His sire, Afleet Alex, won this race going away in 2005.
Frosted
Closed from deep in the Kentucky Derby to finish fourth, but he probably wanted to be closer to the pace. He’ll be a looming threat and will sit just off the leaders and look for that one run.
Madefromlucky
He’s the Peter Pan winner, the local prep for the Belmont Stakes. He has a nice, long, loping stride with the capacity to relax.
Last year’s Peter Pan winner, Tonalist, went on to win the Belmont Stakes and spoil the Triple Crown.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
