Belmont Stakes 2015: Early Predictions Post-Preakness
American Pharoah became the 14th horse since 1978 to take the Kentucky Derby-Preakness Stakes "Double Crown" with his weather-induced front-running win at Pimlico on Saturday.
The weight of the wait for a Triple Crown winner goes beyond the 126 pounds American Pharoah must carry in the race.
And like every renewal there will be well-rested Derby runners, new shooters and nearly 100,000 fans to contend with as the ear-muffed American Pharoah makes his way to the famous Belmont Park saddling area.
Let’s get on with some predictions for the Test of a Champion.
Firing Line Will Run in the Belmont Stakes
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Draw a Line Through Firing Line’s Preakness Stakes.
A few things happened to this colt that took him out of contention. The rain problem was two-fold. He lost his footing leaving the gate, stumbling badly and being forced to take back. He would have been in the pace scenario; instead he was stacked wide, losing ground to an on-the-bit Pharoah.
Firing Line clearly didn’t like the track, either. He wasn’t alone. Only one horse liked that track, and that was the winner.
Firing Line’s trainer Simon Callaghan said in a release afterward, “I don't know about the Belmont.”
Unless he’s hurt, there’s no reason to skip the Belmont. Firing Line didn’t even run in the Preakness. It was more or less a one-mile breeze with a 3/16th-mile gallop out.
Firing Line will run in the Belmont, and if he catches a fast track he will be the threat everyone thought he was before the rain fell on Baltimore.
Frosted Will Hit the Board
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Frosted looked like a spaceship the way he bombed down the middle of the track in the Kentucky Derby. He finished fourth, and were he more forwardly placed than 15th at the third call he may have put a nose into the trifecta.
“He ran very well,” trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said after the Derby. “He had a good trip. We finished fourth. He may have been a little far back. It’s hard to say, but we didn’t have a rough trip. He was just a little wide on the turn.”
Frosted, the Wood Memorial winner, can force the pace, and that’s what horses need to do to win the Belmont Stakes. It being such a long race, the horses with the best chances to win rate in the first third of the field and relax. Then it’s a wobbly mess getting home.
With five weeks' rest from a trainer who won this race in 2006 with Jazil, Frosted will hit the board and maybe win this race.
Dortmund Will Take a Pass on the Belmont Stakes
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Dortmund was the 4-1 third choice in the Preakness, but being such a big, heavy, strapping colt, the muddy conditions likely took their toll.
A horse like American Pharoah is so fleet of foot that the mud mattered little, but a monster like Dortmund is a grinder, and the track put him at an disadvantage.
His jockey Martin Garcia said in a release, “He didn’t like the sloppy track. He didn’t come out good from the gate and he didn’t like the mud in his face. Not his best effort today.”
That’s two losses in a row for this beast. There’s no denying his talent, but it appears he wants nine furlongs at most and ideally a fast track.
That opens the Monmouth Park condition book for trainer Bob Baffert. Bafffert has won the 1 ⅛-mile Haskell Invitational seven times, and Dortmund truly fits the bill.
I suspect Baffert will take this time to freshen up Dortmund for a summer campaign away from Derby winner. If they meet again it will be in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
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D. Wayne Lukas Rides Mr. Z to the Belmont Stakes
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D. Wayne Lukas Will Saddle Mr. Z in the Belmont Stakes.
*Sigh*
D. Wayne Lukas loves the Triple Crown races. You may even say he’s obsessed with them. Do you think Captain Ahab would have stopped had he bagged Moby Dick? Hell, no!
Ahab would have found another to pick a fight with and mail the stupid Pequod to the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean until he at long last would say those famous words, “From hell’s heart I stab at thee!”
Lukas, too, is deranged when it comes to the Triple Crown. He’s won four Derbys, six Preakness Stakes and four Belmonts. When he has a three-year-old that may be classified as a three-hour marathoner at best, Lukas straps his hopes to that horse for five weeks and holds on.
He even orchestrates deals to sell horses to an owner willing to run the horse.
On some level you can’t blame him. These races come but once a year, and when you have a chance you have to ride it.
So Mr. Z will likely go to the Belmont, try to set the pace the way he tried at Pimlico, finish ninth or 10th and go on to have a nice career in Grade 3s.
Nick Zito Will Be the Scariest Man for Three Weeks
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I love Nick Zito. I even wrote about him extensively in this fine book, but when I found out he was pointing Frammento, who finished 12th in the Kentucky Derby, to the Belmont Stakes I just about drove the wrong way down the Long Island Expressway.
Here’s a text exchange, written in movie script form, I had after the Preakness Stakes with my friend, Good Ol’ Tommy:
Tommy
Going to be exciting Belmont.
Brendan
Oh, man, maybe one of the best yet.
Tommy
Who will ruin it? Dwayne? Zito? Keen Ice?
Me
Effing Frammento, of course.
Tommy
Damn you, Zito!
In the most heart-wrenching Belmont Stakes of the last 15 years, Zito’s Birdstone ran down Smarty Jones in 2004. Then in 2008, Zito’s Da’Tara got loose on the lead and beat a beleaguered Big Brown.
Should Zito enter Frammento, which all signs seems to indicate, he’ll be a threat the same way Birdstone and Da’Tara were: long shots given a snowball’s chance because of Zito.
Capping Attendance at 90,000 Will Be a Great Move
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Most Belmont Stakes Days are a chance for the New York Racing Association to gouge to the consumer and cram as many people onto the grounds as possible. We haven’t come close to the 120,000 people present for Smarty Jones’ Belmont in 2004, but 100,000 is reasonable when a Triple Crown is on the line.
On May 6, so before the Preakness, the NYRA announced its attendance cap (h/t BloodHorse.com):
"(The attendance cap) will not only result in an enhanced experience for Belmont guests, but will further improve access to and from the Belmont property on Saturday. It will also complement Saturday's post-race concert, which is anticipated to further stagger the exit from the Belmont property following the final race.
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A Triple Crown is a nightmare for traffic, transportation and the bathrooms. It’s rare in our capitalist economy for someone to heed a “less is more” practice. The NYRA needs to be commended for that.
After seeing American Pharoah draw off in the Preakness, someone in the NYRA brass probably said, “Are you sure you don’t want to cap it at 100,000? What’s another 10,000? Anyone? Anyone?”
We're Going to Party Like It's 1999!
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“Baby’s black balloon makes her fly!”
“Long way down!”
“I won’t tell ’em your name!”
C’mon, now, let’s give up for John Rzeznik of the Goo Goo Dolls, the band who gets to sing people out of Belmont Park when the race is over.
Not gonna lie, as a senior in high school, I was super into Dizzy Up the Girl, an album title whose true meaning was lost on my brooding, over-achieving, 18-year-old, future-disappointing self.
I saw the Goo Goo Dolls in my freshman year at UMass, Amherst at the Mullins Center after hustling down from a French 100 exam with a bag full of books ready to rock out to “Slide” and “Give A Little Bit.”
Yeah, that’s right.
“Long Way Down” has a nice, crunchy riff. They should play that and quit while the gettin’s good.
Back to business...
Materiality Could Be the Second Coming of Palace Malice
8 of 10Todd Pletcher, in true Todd Pletcherian wizardry, saddled three Kentucky Derby horses, flirted with the Preakness (a weird move on his part) and opted to send practically an entire string to the Belmont Stakes.
Materiality, sixth in the Derby in just his fourth career start, could be the most dangerous threat to the Triple Crown not named Nick Zito.
Materiality had every reason to finish at the back of the pack in the Derby: poor post position, lack of experience, not an ideal trip. Yet he still finished sixth.
His sire, Afleet Alex, won this race by daylight in 2005.
With less traffic, Materiality should get to dictate the terms of the Belmont Stakes and possibly run second or third all the way around the oval the way Palace Malice did back in 2013.
Palace Malice wore blinkers in the 2013 Derby and took off like buckshot over the sealed track. Pletcher rested him, took off the blinkers for the Belmont and watched his colt defeat Oxbow and Orb.
It was one of Pletcher’s finest training jobs, and he could do it again and win this third Belmont with Materiality.
Keen Ice Is a Looming Threat
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Keen Ice closed seven places from 14th to seventh in the final quarter-mile of the Kentucky Derby.
Trained by the always dangerous Dale Romans, Keen Ice takes aim at the Belmont. His strength—that late-running style—could be his undoing. Horses typically don't win the Belmont Stakes from way off the pace. Off the pace, yes, but not from the clouds.
The son of Curlin breezed five furlongs in 1:01 and change at Churchill, not exactly the type of move that inspires visions of upsets, but nice maintenance work just the same.
Curlin lost this race by a whisker in 2007 after winning the Preakness. You could say Keen Ice has the stamina and may be better suited for grass. The fact that Romans wants him in this spot could mean he’s ready to hit the board in a major way.
American Pharoah Becomes No. 12
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Someone is on the side of American Pharoah, maybe Amon Ra, Ibis or Ramses II. Khufu, probably Khufu.
Baffert felt pretty sorry for himself for having drawn Post 1 with his Derby winner. There are a lot of things not in your control when you draw the far inside. The fence doesn’t move.
Then it rained. AP loves the slop. It allowed jockey Victor Espinoza to shoot Pharoah out of there like he was catching the south-blowing wind of the Nile. It took the post out of question when Espinoza blasted out of there and into the winner’s circle.
The rain saved American Pharoah in the Preakness when it hampered everyone else.
He’s also skittish in crowds, hence the use of the brown cotton balls. Belmont Park routinely has over 100,000 fans on Belmont Stakes Day when there’s a live Triple Crown runner. This year, Belmont capped attendance at 90K.
Baffert goes for his fourth try at the Triple Crown. Espinoza goes for his third. Like the three Great Pyramids that mirror Orion’s belt (#2560BCgenius), the stars are aligning for this horse to get the job done and be the 12th Triple Crown winner.
It won’t be easy, but this is the Triple Crown. It’s not supposed to be.
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