Preakness Winner 2015: Breaking Down American Pharoah's Triple Crown Chances
American Pharoah’s tour-de-force, in the slop at Pimlico in the Preakness Stakes, gave the Bob Baffert trainee the second jewel of the Triple Crown to go along with his victory in the Kentucky Derby. Now it is off to New York for a date with destiny.
We have not seen a Triple Crown winner since 1978, when Affirmed swept the three races. In the years since, there have been 13 horses that won the Derby and Preakness, and all came up short in the Belmont Stakes. Among those is California Chrome, who was sent off as the betting favorite last year, but had to settle for fourth.
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Now, for the third time in the last four years, there is another chance to end the long drought in between Triple Crown winners. We have seen some great horses come up short at Belmont Park, including Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence and Real Quiet.
Is the great American Pharoah better than his predecessors that failed to sweep the three races?
“We need a star," said winning owner Ahmed Zayat per the Maryland Jockey Club. "He’s indeed the real deal. Please God, let’s continue, let the fun start. ”
American Pharoah has been a superstar since winning back-to-back Grade 1 races as a juvenile last year, and would have been the wagering favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but a foot issue knocked him out just days before the race.
It took the colt five months to make it back to the racetrack, and he romped in his two preps, and then won the Kentucky Derby by a length. His victory in the Preakness in the slop may have been his best performance yet, and he certainly will be a heavy betting favorite in the Belmont Stakes when early betting odds are released this week by Odds Shark.
We have seen it before. Smarty Jones was sent off in the Belmont Stakes at betting odds of 2-5 and Big Brown was bet down to 1-5 in his Triple Crown bid. Both looked invincible and they both lost.
The closest we have come to seeing a Triple Crown was in 1998. The Baffert trained Real Quiet swept the first two jewels of the Triple Crown and was sent to the post as the 4-5 betting favorite in a field of 11.
Under jockey Kent Desormeaux, Real Quiet headed for home with a clear lead and looked like a sure thing until the late charging Victory Gallop with Gary Stevens aboard got up in the last jump for the victory.
American Pharoah will go into the Belmont Stakes will similar credentials to many of the past Derby/Preakness winners that came up short in the Belmont Stakes. There is now no doubt he is the most talented horse of his generation.
“He’s just an amazing horse. Everybody talks about the greatness and he’s starting to show it," Baffert said per the Maryland Jockey Club. "To me, they have to prove it. Today, the way he did it. He’s just so fast, the way he ran. It was like poetry in motion.
The colt has plenty going for him. He has won six in a row, is proven over a sloppy track, looked as if the Preakness did not tax him and he has a Hall of Fame trainer calling the shots.
Sure, Baffert has failed in three Triple Crown bids, but is there really another trainer better in Triple Crown races? The answer to that is a resounding no.
What could stand in his way in three weeks are a couple of horses that ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness, meaning they will come into the Belmont Stakes rested and raring to go.
Materiality was a troubled sixth in the Derby. The lightly raced Todd Pletcher trainee won the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park in his previous outing. Pletcher saddled the filly Rags to Riches to win the 2007 Belmont.
Another colt with a big chance in the Belmont Stakes is Frosted, who was the only horse in the Derby field to make up any significant ground in the stretch, rallying for fourth.
The colt is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who saddled Jazil to victory in the 2006 Belmont Stakes.
If Firing Line comes back for another shot, do not throw him out despite his poor performance in the Preakness. The colt took a bad step early and did not care for the sloppy conditions. He could rebound with a much better performance at Belmont Park.
While American Pharoah went gate to wire in the Preakness, that is not usually the way to get the job done in the Belmont Stakes. In the last 29 years, just two winners have wired the field.
Most of the winners tend to sit just off the pace, with several of the winners coming from far off the pace. American Pharoah has shown an ability to track the pace, and that may be the strategy in three weeks depending on how many speed horses enter.
For jockey Victor Espinoza, this will be his third bid for a Triple Crown "Unfortunately, when I get there with the horses that I've been coming back, they seem to get a little tired when they get to the Belmont," Espinoza told Blood Horse.
The bottom line is it takes a talented, gifted and maybe even lucky horse to win all three jewels of the Triple Crown.
American Pharoah has shown all of those traits during his career and is a serious threat to end the Triple Crown drought.
Betting odds via Equibase
Statistics via Triple Crown Handicapper
Follow Michael Dempsey on Twitter @turfnsport
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