Preakness 2015: What Video Replay Shows for American Pharoah's Belmont Odds

On Saturday, a record 131,680 fans turned out to watch American Pharoah throw up one of the most dominant performances in the history of the Preakness Stakes. Literally.

Under the guidance of rider Victor Espinoza, The Pioneerof the Nile colt logged a seven-length victory, good for a five-way tie for the longest margin of victory in Preakness history, per Preakness.com. Not only was he the best horse on the field this day, but he continued to show that he could win under any circumstances, logging this win under heavy rain and over a sloppy track.

Pharoah was nothing short of spectacular, and after gaining the lead just prior to the first quarter, he never looked back.

So, we've established that American Pharoah was historically dominant in this, the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes, but what does it say about his chances to complete his quest for the ever-elusive Triple Crown?

Through a combination of replay analysis and our knowledge of American Pharoah's past results, I'm going to tell you everything you need to know about how this Preakness win sets up for a possible Belmont and Triple Crown triumph.

But first, take a look at the full order of finish from Saturday's race.

Preakness Order of Finish

Position	No.	Horse	Trainer	Jockey
1	1	American Pharoah	Bob Baffert	Victor Espinoza
2	5	Tale of Verve	Dallas Stewart	Joel Rosario
3	7	Divining Rod	Arnaud Delacour	Javier Castellano
4	2	Dortmund	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia
5	3	Mr. Z	D. Wayne Lukas	Corey Nakatani
6	4	Danzig Moon	Mark Casse	Julien Leparoux
7	8	Firing Line	Simon Callaghan	Gary Stevens
8	6	Bodhisattva	Jose Corrales	Trevor McCarthy

Replay Analysis

Pharoah bolted from the gate.

This was to be expected, as AP has always shown good gate speed. However, what we didn't necessarily expect was for him to be a length clear of second-place runner Mr. Z by the time he finished his first quarter mile.

AP breezed through the opening quarter in 22.90 seconds and continued to widen his lead out to two lengths after finishing the second quarter in just 23.59 seconds.

His half-mile time was nearly a second faster than the one the leading group ran in the Derby (46.49 seconds vs. 47.34 seconds), per The Daily Racing Form, and coming into the 3/4-mile mark, AP was in complete control of the pace, logging a 24.93 second third quarter (that's really slow).

Then, in the fourth quarter, AP managed to increase his lead while practically walking to a time of 26.32 seconds. Ultimately, he kicked clear of his competition and worked his way to a seven-length victory ahead of the second- and third-place finishers, Tale of Verve and Divining Rod, respectively.

Pharoah and Espinoza finished the race with a mind-boggling time of 1:58.46 seconds. Yes, the track was wet, but I dug through Equibase's historical charts for the Preakness (they go back as far as 1991) and found nothing slower, making this the slowest Preakness in at least the last 25 iterations.

Conclusions

Honestly, this win doesn't say a whole lot about AP's chances to complete the Triple Crown.

He and Espinoza ran up against a weak, top-heavy field at Pimlico, and the torrential downpour and sloppy track only helped them on their way to capturing the second jewel of the Triple Crown. That said, if we dig deep enough, Pharoah has left a few clues for us to follow.

Winning the Belmont is all about placement.

The race is long, like, really long. At 1 ½ miles, it's well clear of the Preakness and Derby as the longest of the Triple Crown races, and if you're hoping to come from the stars and close into a victory, chances are you're going to be left disappointed.

Beyond that though, this group has shown nothing in the way of cheap speed and has been multiple seconds slower than what we'd normally expect in the Triple Crown races. Because of this, truly "closing" from the back of the pack is not an option. Period.

Fortunately, Pharoah has shown impressive gate speed in every one of his races, including this last one in the Preakness. Getting out toward the front of the pack will be imperative if AP hopes to complete his pursuit of the Triple Crown.

The race also left us another bit of information in the form of his ability to recover after a physically demanding race.

After earning a hard-fought victory in the Derby, AP turned around in just two weeks and performed at arguably the highest level of his career, besting that dismal field by seven lengths. Now, the Bob Baffert trainee will have three weeks to do the same.

After a nearly identical victory in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes (shown in the video above), AP came back in just less than a month to win the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths. If he's able to bounce back in a similar fashion, then Pharoah will indeed win the first Triple Crown in 37 years.

That said, with the uptick in distance and the presence of fresh legs like Materiality, Frosted, Carpe Diem and Mubtaahij, it won't not be an easy trek.

Either way, I'm sticking with my post-Kentucky-Derby prediction that American Pharoah will in fact win the Triple Crown.

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