2015 Belmont Stakes: Early Odds and Predictions Following Preakness

Just as quickly as it arrived, the Triple Crown season is nearly over with the Belmont Stakes as the final race left after American Pharoah captured the Preakness Stakes on Saturday to keep his quest for history alive. 

The odds are in American Pharoah's favor, with Odds Shark having the champion thoroughbred at +105 in the early line. For perspective, the field that hasn't even been set yet is getting -135 betting line as things stand. 

Even though the entire field for the run at Belmont Park won't be set until the week of the race, which takes place on June 6, it's never too early to start looking ahead at what may happen based on the potential list of candidates. 

The Belmont Stakes is often the most difficult Triple Crown race to handicap because it's so different from the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Specifically, the race is longer at 12 furlongs than at Churchill Downs (10 furlongs) and Pimlico (9.5 furlongs). 

Of course, the Preakness Stakes didn't do the horses any favors with a torrential downpour pummeling the track as the horses were preparing to enter the starting gate. You would never know it based on how American Pharoah breezed to an easy seven-length win. 

This extra distance tests stamina and speed, though jockey Victor Espinoza showed what American Pharoah is capable of by pulling up his horse going into the final turn before unleashing the beast down the stretch. 

There have been many teases of a Triple Crown since Affirmed won all three races in 1978. In fact, per ESPN Stats & Info, American Pharoah became the 14th horse to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes in the last 37 years:

California Chrome was supposed to end the drought last year before finishing fourth at the Belmont Stakes. That does go to show just how difficult the final leg of the Triple Crown is, as well as the physical toll it takes on a horse to run three races in five weeks. 

Even with history seeming to work against American Pharoah, it's impossible to pick against him at this point. The resume is there with six consecutive wins, and the dominance is there after he destroyed the Preakness field. Plus, the jockey-trainer combination of Espinoza-Bob Baffert won't be intimidated by this stage.

Per ESPN Stats & Info, American Pharoah is the fourth horse Baffert has trained to have a shot to win the Triple Crown:

The way American Pharoah used the rain-soaked track at Pimlico to his advantage bodes well for his potential at Belmont. Although he's not going to be fazed by any conditions, the length will test his endurance, but that's where Espinoza's brilliance comes into play. 

According to Kathryn Schulz of the New Yorker, the jockey said after winning the race that he wound up changing plans for American Pharoah after the weather changed:

The fact Espinoza could make a last-second decision like that, carry it out to perfection and not overextend the horse to avoiding wearing him out in crunch time speaks volumes about where this tandem is at heading into the Belmont Stakes. 

Dortmund was my personal pick to win the Kentucky Derby. When that didn't happen, I still thought there were enough positive things to take away from his run at Churchill Downs for him to contend at the Preakness Stakes. He's a massive horse who could use that size to sprint on a shorter track. 

Instead, Dortmund finished fourth at Pimlico and was never in the race. That may prompt his owners to avoid the Belmont Stakes, though that remains to be seen. The only thing that feels like a certainty at this point is American Pharoah running in New York. 

Until someone steps up to defeat American Pharoah, he has to be the choice to win at the Belmont Stakes. It's hard to predict history will happen, especially with so much recent evidence working against it, but this is a special horse. 

(Predictive) odds of American Pharoah winning Belmont Stakes and Triple Crown: 1-1