American Pharoah, Victor Espinoza: Updated Outlook for Belmont and Triple Crown

What a day, what a race, and what a horse. With his win over the sloppy Pimlico dirt track in the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes, American Pharoah has captured both the first and second legs of the elusive Triple Crown and will look to cap off an incredible run at Belmont Park in three weeks.

For jockey Victor Espinoza, this makes back-to-back wins in both the Derby and the Preakness, and he'll look to take another swing at one of the most elusive feats in all of sports.

Bob Baffert also made history today and moved into a tie with D. Wayne Lukas for the second-most Preakness wins of all time (6). He will get another shot at a Triple Crown himself, as he's now saddled four Derby-Preakness doubles (American Pharoah, War Emblem, Real Quiet and Silver Charm), per Preakness.com.

Capturing the Triple Crown is one of the most difficult feats in the sporting world, and we haven't seen one since Affirmed completed his back in 1978. That said, American Pharoah looks as though he could have as good a shot at capturing the elusive third jewel of the Triple Crown as any horse in recent memory.

How good are those chances? Well, that's what I'm hoping to help you sort out here. I'm going to take you through the Preakness today and offer up my thoughts on AP moving forward.

But first, here's a look at the complete order of finish for the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes.

Order of Finish

Place	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer
1	1	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert
2	5	Tale of Verve	Joel Rosario	Dallas Stewart
3	7	Divining Rod	Javier Castellano	Arnaud Delacour
4	2	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert
5	3	Mr. Z	Corey Nakatani	D. Wayne Lukas
6	4	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse
7	6	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan
8	8	Bodhisattva	Trevor McCarthy	Jose Corrales

Race Analysis

Although he has great gate speed and is always able to get right up near the lead, it was a bit surprising to see Espinoza allow Pharoah to run right up against Mr. Z as they matched each other stride for stride heading into the first turn.

Mr. Z couldn't get even with Pharoah, though, as the Kentucky Derby winner flashed incredible early speed, causing rider Corey Nakatani to pull up on Mr. Z as they nestled in to second place.

Mr. Z proved to be a worthy contender for all of about 24 seconds, as Pharoah kicked a full length ahead of the Malibu Moon colt en route to a length-long lead as they worked to a half-mile in 46.49 seconds—over a half-second faster than his Derby time.

From there, AP fought off would-be challengers Dortmund and Divining Rod as they moved through the final turn. Although they were able to nibble at AP's heels—his lead was trimmed down to a half-length at one point—neither were able to draw even, as AP found himself a length ahead of the second- and third-place finishers.

As they cleared the final turn and entered the final stretch, Pharoah widened his lead to three lengths before breaking out to a six-length victory, a feat that should place him squarely in the top-12 rankings for largest margin of victory in Preakness history.

Belmont Stakes Outlook

Winning the Belmont is no easy task, and there's a reason they call it The Test of the Champion. A 1 1/2-mile race might as well be a marathon when you're running at 30-plus miles per hour, but American Pharoah looks to have the stamina necessary to complete the feat.

Pharoah's bloodlines suggest that there may be enough in the tank for a Belmont victory. Pharoah's grandsire, Empire Maker, was a Belmont winner back in 2003, and based on the ease with which he won today, AP appears to be the horse to beat come June 6.

That said, it won't be a walk-through like today, as Pharoah will have to contend with a number of horses coming off significant layoffs, including likely Belmont runners Materiality, Frosted, Carpe Diem and Mubtaahij.

Frosted has a win over the Belmont dirt track, having won the 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 Wood Memorial (shown below) back in April in impressive fashion, running wide through the first turn, the back stretch and again in the second turn.

Materiality is another horse to watch in the Belmont, as his running style is perfectly suited to take the Run for the Carnations. The Afleet Alex colt likes to run from a forward position, and in the Belmont a horse's position in relation to the lead means more than it ever will.

As shown below in the video replay of the Florida Derby, you can see what Materiality will try to do at Belmont. He'll jump out to a position just off the pace-setter, rate and make a move for the lead somewhere in the final quarter mile.

If the pace is quiet enough—these first two legs of the Triple Crown suggest it will be—then Materiality could have a huge say in the race's final outcome.

Don't forget about Mubtaahij either. The three-year-old son of Dubawi logged an eighth-place finish in the Derby earlier this month but receives a pass given the fact that he had just shipped in from Meydan Race Course in Dubai.

International trainers are renowned for their ability to train horses for long-distance races, and Mubtaahij showed this in his two efforts over the 1 3/16-mile dirt course at Meydan. The second such race, the UAE Derby—a Kentucky Derby prep race—is shown in the video below.

Don't expect a virtual cakewalk like the one Mubtaahij experienced in the UAE Derby, but, on the other hand, don't be surprised if he snatches a victory from AP and the field at Belmont, either.

AP is going to have his work cut out for him come June 6, and although it seems like he won the race with relative ease—he won by open lengths under a hand ride!—he was asked for a whole lot very early.

How much will that take out of him moving forward? No one can say for sure, but this race seems eerily reminiscent of Pharoah's win in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes back in March (shown in the video below).

Pharoah won by 6 1/4 lengths over a sloppy dirt track at Oaklawn Park. Then, just under a month later, AP came back and won by a whopping eight lengths over a field including Derby runner Far Right and the Preakness's fifth-place finisher, Mr. Z.

I'm looking for Pharoah to produce similar results next time out as he looks to navigate his way through the treacherous 1 1/2-mile Belmont Park dirt track.

So, ladies and gentlemen, say hello to your soon-to-be Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah.

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