Preakness 2015 Odds: Triple Crown Outlook and Race-Day Predictions
American Pharoah and the Triple Crown take center stage Saturday at Pimlico.
For the second year in a row, more eyeballs than usual are on the sport of horse racing, more money is out of pockets and more folks know about the creative names in the running thanks to another serious contender flirting with ending a 37-year-drought.
Last year, it was Art Sherman's California Chrome. This year, it's Bob Baffert's American Pharoah.
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This edition offers up perhaps the most interesting Preakness Stakes in years, too, thanks to the top three Kentucky Derby finishers confirmed for the shorter sprint at Pimlico.
So just how likely is a Triple Crown winner? Let's find out.
Preakness Viewing Information
Date: Saturday, May 16
Where: Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore
TV Time: 4:30-6:30 p.m. ET
Post Time: 6:18 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC
Live Stream: NBC Sports Live Extra
2015 Preakness Stakes Post Positions
| 1 | American Pharoah | 10-13 | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Dortmund | 9-2 | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia |
| 3 | Mr. Z | 25-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | 20-1 | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | 50-1 | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | 33-1 | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy |
| 7 | Divining Rod | 22-1 | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Firing Line | 17-4 | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens |
Odds via Odds Shark as of 8 a.m. ET on May 16.
The Triple Crown-Preakness Puzzle
Over at Odds Shark, American Pharoah is a solid bet to win the Triple Crown (+225), and for good reason.
While this year figures to be more competitive than a normal middle leg of the Triple Crown, American Pharoah and jockey Victor Espinoza are in top form after a wow-worthy performance at Churchill Downs.
The Preakness is nothing in difficulty compared to the Kentucky Derby, where American Pharoah had to run out of a rough post position and storm from behind to take the victory away from the other top two horses.
It sounds simple, right? Look at a deep dive provided by Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde:
"Coming from well outside in the 18-horse Derby, Espinoza was wise to keep his horse largely clear of traffic by racing to the right of Dortmund and Firing Line. But that meant he went the long way to the wire. According to Trakus, which charts exactly how far horses run in a race, American Pharoah ran 29 feet farther than Firing Line and 69 feet farther than rail-hugging Dortmund. And he still won the race.
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So not only did American Pharoah come from behind against the deepest field in recent memory, he ran farther than any contending horse at Churchill Downs to secure the victory.
It's not an approach the globe sees from racing's top horse. In most races before the Kentucky Derby, American Pharoah just jumped out to an early lead and never looked back. Now he's shown he can win in a variety of ways.
There's little to suggest the No. 1 post position, a spot dreaded for its proximity to the rail, will hold back American Pharoah. Not with his sheer dominance compared to others, not to mention with Espinoza up top, who rode California Chrome last year.
Even other trainers don't see the rail spot hurting him. Just ask Mr. Z trainer D. Wayne Lukas, per USA Today's Dan Wolken:
"I think it's a challenge for him, but he's the best horse. I don't care what gate you get, when you're the best horse you have to feel good. He'll be alright. He has good tactical speed and he's a very good horse. We could see history made.
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This isn't to suggest Saturday's trip to Pimlico will be simple for American Pharoah. Firing Line has legend Gary Stevens up top and gets to run from the eighth slot. His stablemate, Dortmund, has elite and sustained burst, even if the short turnaround hurts his endurance. But it's clear Baffert's crown jewel is the complete package and on fresh legs considering his small sample size of races.
Taking it all into account, it seems American Pharoah will head to New York one race away from breaking the drought. The situation is much more difficult to figure out than Saturday's event because so many fresh horses who skipped Pimlico will attend, including several from top trainer Todd Pletcher, who skipped Pimlico outright.
Right now, though, the Triple Crown outlook is as good as last year when California Chrome hit the road to New York.
Granted, the status can alter in a matter of minutes and change, but there's no great reason to doubt American Pharoah in the hours leading up to the big race.
Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified.
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