Preakness Entries 2015: Race-Day Predictions for All Horses and Jockeys
The days of the Preakness Stakes sitting in the middle of the Triple Crown hunt like an afterthought are over.
In large part, the globe has trainer Bob Baffert to thank considering he will run both American Pharoah and Dortmund Saturday, the latter of which doesn't need to partake because he could hurt the former's Triple Crown chances.
Normal years suggest the event at Pimlico won't be as competitive, but the reputation changes in a big way with the top three Kentucky Derby finishers in attendance. Small field or not, the result figures to be one of the most competitive dashes of the year.
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Preakness Viewing Information
Date: Saturday, May 16
Where: Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore
TV Time: 4:30-6:30 p.m. ET
Post Time: 6:18 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC
Live Stream: NBC Sports Live Extra
2015 Preakness Stakes Post Positions
| 1 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza | 1 |
| 2 | Dortmund | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia | 3 |
| 3 | Mr. Z | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani | 8 |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux | 5 |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario | 4 |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy | 7 |
| 7 | Divining Rod | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano | 6 |
| 8 | Firing Line | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens | 2 |
Preview and Prediction
The majority of the pre-race hype falls on Baffert and his two horses as well as Firing Line and jockey Gary Stevens, a combo hungry for revenge after falling just short at Churchill Downs.
But there are other contestants to watch, especially if the weather creates a sloppy environment or the field pinches down American Pharoah and Dortmund against the rail.
Just ask Mr. Z trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who hints the race will be more competitive than most expect because of the similar styles. He spoke with the Baltimore Sun's Jon Meoli on the matter:
"One of the things that compromises everybody in this race, other than maybe two horses, is that the style of five or six of these horses is really the same. You could see all of these horses coming together, and it might get into a trip race — who gets the best trip? — and it might get into a jockey's race — who's smart enough to know we're going too fast, too slow, or where will I be? That could very well shake out here.
"
He might just be on to something, too.
A horse such as Divining Rod isn't one to underestimate. There's plenty of hoopla about Firing Line landing the favorable eighth post position, but right next to him is the Arnaud Delacour-trained contender with plenty of speed to set the pace or come from behind.
Up top rides respected jockey Javier Castellano, and Divining Rod has plenty of momentum after an April triumph in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, a similar dash compared to the Preakness. The win came after the owners decided to keep away from the Kentucky Derby so Divining Rod would have fresh legs for the Preakness.
"It's so much better to have more time between races, so we never really thought about (the Derby) much," owner Roy Jackson said, per Gary B. Graves of the Associated Press. "It doesn't make a whole lot of sense for a young horse."
Of course, when the discussion trends toward rest and time between races, it goes right to the favored trio.
Baffert's Dortmund seems like an intriguing contender, especially considering he's won six races by jumping to a lead out of the gates and fending off the opposition the entire way. The approach fell flat at Churchill Downs, but the Preakness is shorter.
Still, one has to think endurance with this sort of style will come back to haunt Baffert's horse sooner or later, and a short turnaround to the Preakness seems like the time. Look for him to fizzle out down the stretch.
Firing Line may face a similar issue. The 52-year-old Stevens is a legend and quite dangerous on the outside because he can approach the dash any way he chooses. Great, but like the Kentucky Derby, it's hard to imagine it will be enough against American Pharoah.
As unpredictable as the field may be, when it comes time to make a prediction, it's foolish to ignore American Pharoah. There's a slight chance he gets squeezed inside against the rail out of the first post, but jockey Victor Espinoza—who rode California Chrome last year—understands how to avoid such a trap as well as best a field at Pimlico in the face of staggering expectations.
American Pharoah showed down the stretch at Churchill Downs he has enough speed to come from behind and steal a win. Even if it's not the course of action Saturday, it's good to know the versatility is there.
Look for Saturday to be a two-horse race down the stretch between American Pharoah and Firing Line. Like the Kentucky Derby, Baffert's top horse will pull away to win.
Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified.
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