Preakness Field 2015: Triple Crown Predictions and Latest Odds for All Horses
It's safe to say the 2015 Preakness Stakes has taken on a different feel in the week leading up to this year's race. There are only eight horses competing for the title, though the one everyone has an eye on, American Pharoah, is still ready to roll.
Joining American Pharoah are fellow Kentucky Derby standouts Firing Line and Dortmund. It may not be the deepest field, but the top of the heap is filled with intrigue. Firing Line and Dortmund were leading the pack at Churchill Downs until the final stretch.
With the Preakness Stakes being a shorter race than the Derby, jockey Victor Espinoza won't have as much time to kick American Pharoah into action. He also may not need to play things as safely, knowing his horse can turn on the jets in a hurry.
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Here's the updated field and odds for the Preakness, as well as predictions for the race that will put the Triple Crown chase in perspective.
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 1 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 10-13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 17-4 |
| 3 | Mr. Z | Corey Nakatani | D. Wayne Lukas | 33-1 |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 20-1 |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | Joel Rosario | Dallas Stewart | 50-1 |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | Trevor McCarthy | Jose Corrales | 50-1 |
| 7 | Divining Road | Javier Castellano | Arnaud Delacour | 20-1 |
| 8 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 17-4 |
The Favorite: American Pharoah
When you enter the Kentucky Derby as the favorite and win that race, it makes sense that you would be a resounding favorite at the Preakness Stakes. American Pharoah is in that rare territory where he actually costs you money if he wins or loses.
One interesting theory being floated around by Melissa Hoppert of the New York Times is that American Pharoah's shyness could end up being bad news as he makes his way through the Triple Crown season:
"During the walkover at the Derby, a tradition that allows contenders' connections to escort them on the racetrack to the paddock, American Pharoah became so unnerved by the crowd of people around him and the record 170,513 in the stands that it took several grooms to control the dark bay colt.
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His aggressive behavior, noted by horseplayers as a bad omen because it saps strength, continued in the paddock and on the racetrack, until he was loaded into the starting gate.
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This certainly helps to explain American Pharoah's slow start at Churchill Downs, though it's also telling he overcame the potential energy drain out of the gate to glide past the finish line clear of Firing Line and Dortmund.
Boasting a resume as impressive as American Pharoah's, which includes five consecutive victories, the three-year-old deserves to be getting these odds. It also wouldn't be a surprise if Espinoza helped him romp to another win.
The Sleeper: Divining Rod
It's hard to find a true sleeper in a field of eight horses. Limited options don't exactly lend themselves to sleepers, but there is a clear line of delineation between the top and bottom of the field.
Divining Rod is coming into the Triple Crown season fresh, having not raced since winning the Coolmore Lexington Stakes on April 11. His career resume is a mixed bag with just two wins in five starts since last November.
Per Jim Dunleavy of Daily Racing Form, Divining Rod's trainer Arnaud Delacour was pleased with his horse's first gallop around Pimlico:
"He was perfect when he went out and a little hot when he came back. But he is that way every day, that's just him," Delacour said. "The only time you can really get him to turn off is at Fair Hill when we take him out on the turf gallop."
Even though Delacour is biased in his opinion, he's hardly the only one giving Divining Rod a shot to pull off the upset on Saturday.
Ellis Starr of America's Best Racing, via Fox Sports, noted how much improvement Divining Rod showed in the Lexington Stakes:
"In that race, Divining Rod showed a lot of maturity in relaxing in third in the early stages. Racing on the inside for the first three-quarters of a mile, Divining Rod came out to the three path and drove past the leaders with little encouragement from his jockey, accelerating to a three-length win. That's the same kind of trip American Pharoah got in his Derby win. With Divining Rod coming back off five weeks rest as well as getting North American leading jockey Javier Castellano as his pilot, he may be capable of posting the upset in this year's Preakness.
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There are moments when an athlete goes from being an interesting novelty act to something special. Divining Rod doesn't have enough of a resume yet to support that hypothesis, but his last start suggests an evolution that could lead to big things.
The other contender for an upset is Danzig Moon, though he just came in fifth place behind Preakness contenders American Pharoah and Firing Line two weeks ago at the Kentucky Derby.
The Pick: Dortmund
Even though the argument against Danzig Moon is because he just lost two weeks ago against most of the top contenders, Dortmund is a different beast entirely. Literally and figuratively.
Dortmund entered the Kentucky Derby with an unblemished record (6-0) and incredible genes as the son of Big Brown. He's also one of the most impressive physical specimens because of how tall and wide he is, though that was used as a knock against the thoroughbred before anyone saw how well he ran.
The Kentucky Derby wasn't Dortmund's finest hour. He came out of the gate strong before fading down the stretch and finished third.
This time, things are going to be different and one big reason is because of the post positions. Dortmund is starting right next to American Pharoah at the Preakness, which Rick Snider of the Washington Post notes can work to the advantage of jockey Martin Garcia:
"He’ll leave from the No. 1 post, which is known for its seemingly obstructed run to the first rail. Some trainers say it’s all mental, that the slanted view is a mirage.
There’s plenty of ground left in the 13/16-mile race to overcome a length or two out of the gate. But Dortmund will be coming from the No. 2 post, and the Derby’s third-place finisher can dictate American Pharoah’s early pace over the first quarter mile by pinning the latter along the rail.
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Starting from the middle of the pack was supposed to help Dortmund in the Kentucky Derby, but he was still at the mercy of others down the final stretch because American Pharoah and Firing Line were able to get loose from the pack.
Given the way Dortmund and American Pharoah run and with the Preakness being half of a furlong shorter than the Kentucky Derby, whichever horse gets out of the gate stronger figures to be the determining factor on Saturday.
Dan Wolken of USA Today pointed out that American Pharoah's win at Churchill Downs may not have been as impressive as it seemed:
"The fact American Pharoah needed so much coaxing — and still ran a fairly slow final quarter-mile compared to horses that went on to win the Triple Crown — is potentially the bigger story for the Preakness because it calls into question whether his dominant victories in the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes were as much about lackluster competition as his potential brilliance.
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No one can take away American Pharoah's accomplishment of winning at the Kentucky Derby, nor should they try, but the Preakness will determine if this horse is as special as he seems or had momentum at the right time in one race.
Dortmund is the kind of horse who should thrive on the Preakness' dirt track. He had a great shot to win at the Kentucky Derby, only to falter down the stretch, and has been working his way back into racing shape over the last two weeks.
That hard work will pay off when Dortmund ends American Pharoah's hopes and continues the streak of 37 years without a Triple Crown winner.
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