Preakness 2015 Weather: Latest Forecast for 140th Race at Pimlico Race Course
The 2015 Preakness Stakes stands at the mercy of Mother Nature.
If American Pharoah is to complete the second stage of his Triple Crown pursuit and head to New York ready to break a 37-year drought, it might take conquering sweltering heat and potential showers in Baltimore.
The potential for inclement weather makes for an interesting scenario for the rest of the field, though. There are eight participants total, with top-tier trainer Todd Pletcher not sending a horse to the race.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Below, let's take a look at the race and latest forecasts.
2015 Preakness Stakes Post Positions
| 1 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Dortmund | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia |
| 3 | Mr. Z | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy |
| 7 | Divining Rod | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Firing Line | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens |
Forecast and Preview
Trainers already know this, but it's worth repeating anyway—it's best to prepare for the worst in Baltimore this weekend.
Over at Weather.com, the chart lists a 30 percent chance of rain Saturday with winds up to eight miles an hour, with the description reading "isolated thunderstorms." In other words, things could be dry as can be, or storms could break out before or during the race.
Mark Leberfinger of AccuWeather.com warns of potential heat levels peaking in the mid-90s and talks with meteorologist Andy Mussoline, who offers his take on the odds that things stay dry Saturday.
"The warmth and humidity will help fuel a pop-up shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening that will threaten to interrupt the race," Mussoline said. "The showers or thunderstorms will be spotty enough that chances will favor the race will stay dry."
The Baltimore Sun's Scott Dance provides a deep dive concerning where all this uncontrollable stuff comes from:
"A warm front is expected to pass through Friday, putting the region on the hot, humid side of the boundary, with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico flowing up from the south. That means an end to the cool, dry weather that moved in Wednesday and is expected to stick around until moving off the East Coast on Friday.
"
With weather expectations in hand, it's next best to ask—what does it all mean?
It seems to vary by horse and trainer, or some combination of both. Just ask Bob Baffert, who brings the top two favorites to the field in American Pharoah and Dortmund.
According to KY Derby Contenders, Baffert thinks sloppy conditions hurt one of his horses, but wouldn't impact the other:
It's an interesting, honest note. There's plenty of logic, too, considering Dortmund loves to run wire-to-wire, a method he has used to win six of his seven times out, the seventh almost an unthinkable start-to-finish lead at Churchill Downs.
Unlike Dortmund, American Pharoah touts the versatility to lead the pack or come from behind late, the latter being the method used for besting a deep field at the Kentucky Derby. This figures to give him an advantage if it rains at Pimlico, even out of the dreaded No. 1 post next to the rail in a small field.
Despite the ability to win in any sort of fashion, spotty weather might open things up for others, too. Jockey Gary Stevens and Firing Line out of the eighth post already clutched an advantage because they can run however they want, but if the seven horses on the inside get clogged up in mud, it might be an easy dash to the finish.
Weather has a way of opening things up for underdogs, too. Names such as Bodhisattva and Divining Rod don't have a ton of impressive victories under their belts, but their owners entered them because of the weak field and previous potential shown in races. Inclement weather that slows down the best horses in the field can produce an upset.
Like the final lineup, forecasts can still change on short notice. Right now, though, it looks like an unpredictable, small field will have to deal with a matching unpredictable set of conditions, meaning the eventual winner deserves every bit of praise headed his way.
Stats and information via Preakness.com unless otherwise specified.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
