Preakness Odds 2015: Best and Worst Horse-Jockey Tandem to Bet
With just one day between us and the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes, things are starting to heat up in a hurry.
Earlier this week, we got the post position draw, and while the small field helps to neutralize the major impact post positions can have on a race, it's interesting nonetheless. With the draw, a more important step was taken in the confirmation of this year's runners, as well as the official announcement on who will be riding each contender.
A jockey's performance can make or break a horse. Their control over the race can never truly be overstated, and this year's field boasts a number of quality riders to choose from.
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In all fairness, there isn't a bad rider in the group, so picking the "worst" horse-jockey tandem really came down to picking the horse that seems to be completely outgunned. Meanwhile, picking the "best" horse-jockey tandem to bet was a proverbial cake walk given the morning-line odds, the abilities of the horse and the experience of the rider.
So who should you back, and who should you steer clear of? Well, that's what I'm here to help flesh out for you.
Before we can get into all that, though, first take a look at the full lineup of horses, accompanied by their post positions, odds, trainers and jockeys.
Full Lineup and Odds
| 1 | American Pharoah | 10-13 | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Dortmund | 15-4 | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia |
| 3 | Mr. Z | 25-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | 14-1 | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | 50-1 | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | 50-1 | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy |
| 7 | Divining Rod | 20-1 | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Firing line | 17-4 | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens |
Worst Horse-Jockey Tandem to Bet
Trevor McCarthy is an up-and-coming rider in the North American circuit, but he's not going to have a great birthday on Saturday—sorry, Trevor.
McCarthy has a solid career building in the mid-Atlantic circuit. Last year, the 20-year-old racked up over $8 million in earnings, and, on top of that, he led the Laurel winter, Pimlico spring and Laurel fall meets in wins (167 total victories).
The young rider has a ton of experience at Pimlico and while that might serve him well in some capacity, Bodhisattva has no business in this race.
The Student Council colt got into the Preakness field by virtue of having won the Federico Tesio back in April. The race is run at Pimlico and with the way entries tend to fluctuate with the Preakness, it's a kind of win-and-you're-in stepping stone for the Preakness.
As you can see in the video above, Bodhisattva ran a solid race. A grandson of Kingmambo, Bodhisattva flashed predictable early speed and worked to a one-length lead over modest fractions through the first and second quarters, before nearly coughing up the lead around the 3/4 mile marker.
The young colt dug in, flashed solid drive and ended up battling back for a two-length win.
While his win in the Federico was no small accomplishment, Bodhisattva hasn't shown the class necessary to compete at this level, and he appears to be in way over his head, as evidenced by his status as a 50-1 long shot, per Odds Shark.
Look elsewhere.
Best Horse-Jockey Tandem to Bet
American Pharoah is still the horse to beat, but Firing Line and his rider, Gary Stevens, present probably the best betting option for those looking to make a little wager.
Let's face it, if you're betting, American Pharoah does nothing but round out an exotic ticket for you. In order to make any kind of significant money betting on AP to win (10-13 odds) you have to pump a bunch of money into your ticket.
That's why I'm turning to Firing Line.
Firing Line finished second by just a length to AP in the Derby and finally bested Dortmund—he lost his previous two efforts against the Big Brown colt by a head—while running arguably the best race of his career.
There are some who believe that Firing Line may be in line for a bit of limited regression, and those concerns are well articulated by our resident horse racing expert, Jessica Paquette, in the video below. That said, at 17-4 odds, he presents the best combination of safety and value in the field.
Perhaps the most intriguing part of the Firing Line entry is that he'll saddle a three-time Preakness winner on race day. Stevens has an incredible track record at Pimlico and Saturday, the 52-year-old will become the all-time leader in Preakness mounts.
Oh, and those three wins he's ridden to in the Preakness are accompanied by a slew of in-the-money finishes, including two second-place and six third-place finishes on his resume.
At 52 years old, Stevens has still got it and currently ranks 20th in earnings among North American jockeys in 2015, despite having just 123 mounts.
The experience of Stevens, combined with the ability and improvement shown by Firing Line, should prove to be a great combination at Pimlico.
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