Preakness Odds 2015: Betting Guide to Favorites and Dark Horses

Do you feel that excitement as we come down to the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes? It may not be as outwardly beautiful as the Kentucky Derby, but it’s every bit as relevant as the resident Derby winner tries to keep Triple Crown dreams alive.

But this is a betting slideshow, or, at least, a slideshow aimed to give you some ideas to play with should you choose to responsibly wager a portion of your disposable income. Or you can draw up mock bets. Whatever floats your skiff.

With only eight horses entered, it makes the betting far less interesting than the Derby. A favorite usually runs in the top three, but filling out those exotics is how you score on the Preakness Stakes.

Read on for a few pointers heading into what promises to be a fine day of horse racing.

Odds were provided by Pimlico's morning-line oddsmaker.

Dark-Horse Contender: Danzig Moon

Danzig Moon was a little gassed turning for home in the Derby, but he did close to finish an impressive fifth.

Watching the Kentucky Derby replay, you’ll see that Danzig Moon (breaking from Post 5) was in a mosh pit heading into the clubhouse turn. How he survived it well enough to have a good run toward the end was astounding.

Norman Casse, assistant trainer to Mark Casse, told the Pimlico media department:

"

I think we haven’t seen his best race yet. I think it’s taken him a little while to figure out exactly what his job is and being a racehorse. But I think seeing how aggressive he was in the Derby is kind of a testament to where he is now mentally. Before, you had to ride him a little more. He had the talent; but you had to teach him. Now he’s doing things on his own, and I think it will make him a better race horse. We put blinkers on him immediately because he wasn’t focused at all.

"

With far less traffic to deal with, Danzig Moon will get a better a run at the Big Three breaking from Post 4.

Dark-Horse Contender: Divining Rod

Divining Rod won the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 11 in impressive fashion by taking back at the start of the race.

He broke well from Post 1 and his jockey, Julien Leparoux, was happy to let the pace-setters mingle of the front end. Then Leparoux let out the reins, switched from the one-path to the three-path and kicked clear.

Divining Rod's trainer Arnaud Delacour told Pimlico:

"

That wasn’t a surprise because we had obviously breezed him behind horses in the past before the Lexington, and he took it very well. That wasn’t a surprise, but we wanted to see that kind of race, which we hadn’t seen before. I must say that everything worked out perfect for us. There was some fast enough fractions, like :47-and-change, for him to get to relax. That worked out very well for us.

"

How Divining Rod won the Lexington is what gives him a chance in the Preakness. There will be speed, and it will come from Dortmund, Mr. Z and probably Firing Line too. That’s world-class speed, and if Divining Rod can relax off of that, he could have a fresh shot at those leaders, leaders who ran in the Derby two weeks ago.

Divining Rod has had four weeks off.

The Favorite: American Pharoah

American Pharoah’s chances at winning this race dropped off by drawing Post 1. Not only that, but his stablemate, Dortmund, drew Post 2.

As the 4-5 favorite, American Pharoah could overcome it. If he’s actually the best horse, which many believe he is, he’ll get the job done.

“I always won (the Preakness) with the best horse,” Baffert told Pimlico’s media department. “Usually those were the best horses of that crop.”

He has five Preakness wins and goes for a sixth.

Betting against American Pharoah may be the only way to find a score, but in all likelihood it’s a bad bet.

So how do you make you tickets viable on the Preakness Stakes?

Best Simple Bets

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Firing Line, the Derby runner up, is 4-1 on the morning line. That's incredible value that will surely get bet down to 5-2.

In the Derby, Gary Stevens, Firing Line's jockey, swung his horse way wide turning for home in an effort to make American Pharoah travel farther and lose ground. Pharoah did both, but it mattered little.

Could Firing Line spring a relative upset here? Just read what HorseRaceInsider.com's John Pricci had to say about Firing Line:

"

On Saturday, American Pharoah will be making his fourth start in 63 days; Firing Line his fourth in 84. Doesn’t seem like much of a difference, does it? 

However, when it comes to last-three-outs spacing, the difference is exacerbated: Saturday was will AP’s third start in 35 days, but will be FL’s third in 55 days; the same level of freshness but in a shorter timeframe.

"

He went on to say, "Two races separated by six weeks each, then a third start back in 14 days, can do one of two things; turn a young racehorse into a man, super-fit and on edge, or it will take its toll, physically and mentally. So, which will it be?"

Firing Line probably benefited from a pure fitness standpoint in the Derby. He could come out even sharper in the Preakness. At 5-2, that's decent value for a straight win bet.

Best Exotic Bets

For exotics you have exactas (first and second place), trifectas (first, second and third) and superfectas (first, second, third and fourth).

The Big Three of American Pharoah, Dortmund and Firing Line will likely finish 1-2-3 in some order, so maybe a bomb in fourth place could make a 10-cent superfecta worth the investment.

Here’s how to calculate it.

So whom do you put in fourth place? You could choose one of the dark horses already mentioned. Danzig Moon at 15-1 on the morning line seems like a safe pick, but maybe something more explosive, something that moves the Richter scale.

Try the hometown hero in Bodhisattva, winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico on April 18. He’s a versatile horse who will more than likely do his running late. If the horses tire enough on the front end, he could sneak up into fourth place.

At 20-1 (and probably more like 30- or 40-1) on the morning line, that’s a nice way to beef up an otherwise chalky top three.

Best Multi-Race Wagers

Garry Jones/Associated Press

With such heavy favorites in the key race of the day, the best way to make a profit is to invest in a multi-race ticket. That’s a Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4 or Pick 6.

Many of the races on the undercard are wide open. It wouldn’t be a surprise if a 30-1 long shot wins, say, the Gallorette Handicap for fillies and mares on the turf.

Up and down the undercard are chances to make the Preakness pop even if a 4-5 American Pharoah wins the race.

Prediction

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Heart or gut?

My heart reaction is American Pharoah. Who doesn’t want to see another try at the Triple Crown? In fact I was/am super-high on this horse actually being able to do it. Going against that seems foolish, but there’s this nagging feeling needling away at the bottom of my brain stem.

Thanks be to Horse Race Insider’s John Pricci for that.

As stated in the “Best Simple Bets” slide, Firing Line may be peaking for this race as American Pharoah may be flatlining. And Post 1 does AP no favors while Firing Line gets the cush Post 8.

“The two weeks will help us because we had the six weeks [off] and [another six weeks],” Firing Line’s trainer Simon Callaghan said on last week’s NTRA conference call (h/t HorseRaceInsidier.com). “We love the way he came out of the race, he’s eating up, very bright, takes these big races in his stride. I doubt if anyone came out of the race any better than us.”

My prediction, sad as it makes me (and I hope I’m wrong), is this:

1. Firing Line

2. Dortmund

3. American Pharoah

4. Danzig Moon