Preakness 2015 Odds: 10 Betting Tips from Handicapping Expert
The Kentucky Derby is in the rearview mirror, and it is off to Baltimore, where crab cakes and beer replace that fancy food and drinks they serve on Millionaire’s Row at Churchill Downs.
Horseplayers love Preakness Day for its blue-collar atmosphere, marathon 14-race betting card and a chance to see if the Kentucky Derby winner can keep the Triple Crown dream alive.
This year, it will be American Pharoah most of the over 100,000 at Pimlico and millions more on NBC will be rooting for on Saturday afternoon.
Here are a few betting tips to keep in mind if you are partaking in a little pari-mutuel wagering on Preakness Day.
Prepare Your Wagering Strategy
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Between Friday and Saturday at Pimlico, there will be 28 races, 14 each day, with a nearly endless number of ways to wager.
It is easy for even seasoned horseplayers to get overwhelmed with the possibilities. In the Preakness Stakes, there is traditional win, place and show betting, as well as exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagers. There are daily doubles, Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers involving the other races on the card.
Plan in advance how you are going to wager, and attempt to stick to the plan. If you have a smaller bankroll, stick to the lower-risk wagers such as win, place, show, exactas and daily doubles.
Spend as much time planning your wagers as the time you spend handicapping the races.
Don’t Let Mother Nature Fool You
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The weather forecast for Baltimore on Saturday calls for a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms developing later in the day with a high temperature of 87.
That is a typical forecast for the region. In other words, the forecasters have no idea whether it is going to rain.
Keep an eye on the forecast and keep one very important factor in mind. The Pimlico racing surface dries out quickly. If the rain ends up coming early in the morning, post time for the Preakness is not until 6:18 p.m. ET.
There have been several recent Preakness Days where we saw rain in the morning, but the racing surface was fast by post time for the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
Key on Kentucky Derby Starters
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Contenders that raced in the Kentucky Derby are the key to finding the winner in the Preakness. Out of the last 29 Preakness winners, 26 competed in the Kentucky Derby.
The exceptions are Rachel Alexandra, who ran in the Kentucky Oaks, Bernardini, who won the Withers, and Red Bullet, who had run second in the Wood Memorial.
Generally speaking, if the horse is not good enough to get into the Kentucky Derby field, he is not good enough to win the Preakness Stakes two weeks later.
This year does not look any different, as the horses coming out of the Derby are the ones to beat.
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The Baffert Factor
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Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will send out the betting favorite American Pharoah, currently at odds of 10-13, according to Odds Shark. He will also saddle Dortmund, who will be either the second or the third choice at post time.
Baffert has won the Preakness five times, and each time he brought the Derby winner here, he has won the Preakness—first with Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet the following year and with War Emblem in 2002. His other two winners were Point Given in 2001 and Lookin At Lucky in 2010.
Baffert knows how to prepare his horses to run at the top of their game on just two weeks' rest.
Favorites Dominate
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While the average win payoff in the Kentucky Derby dating back three decades is $28, the average payoff during that same time frame in the Preakness is just under $11.
In the last 29 years, according to Jim Mazur of Progressive Handicapping in his “Triple Crown Handicapper 2015,” 12 betting favorites and eight second choices have won the Preakness.
In the past 14 years, there have been just three Preakness winners that have paid more than $8.80, Bernardini ($27.80) in 2006, Shackleford ($27.20) in 2011 and Oxbow ($32.80) in 2013.
Chalk rules in Baltimore.
Derby Runner-Up Fares Poorly at Old Hilltop
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While horses exiting the Kentucky Derby have come back and fared well two weeks later in the Preakness, the Derby runner-up has had a hard time turning the tables.
If we go back all the way to 1961, there have been just two Kentucky Derby runner-ups that have come back and taken the Preakness. The first was Summer Squall in 1990 and then Prairie Bayou in 1993. Fifteen of the 54 Kentucky Derby runners-ups during that time did not start in the Preakness.
Can Firing Line overcome the Derby runner-up curse? I do not think so.
Long Shots Look Overmatched
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We have documented how well favorites have done in the second jewel of the Triple Crown, and it looks as if that trend is not in danger this year.
The big three this year—American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund—each look legit. Contenders Danzig Moon and Divining Rod could get a piece but look a step below.
The final three—Mr. Z, Bodhisattva and Tale of Verve—look completely overmatched.
This does not look like the year to be stabbing with a long shot.
Public Knows How to Handicap Preakness
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The Kentucky Derby is the most challenging race of the year to handicap, with up to 20 horses going 1 1/4 miles, usually for the first time, and anything can happen.
The betting public does not get it right very often.
It is a little different at the Preakness, where the field is smaller and many of the top horses we have seen just two weeks prior, with the running of the Derby fresh in our minds.
When the betting public locks in on the favorite, that horse tends to not disappoint. Moreover, if the public choice does not win, rest assured he will be picking up a check.
The Preakness betting favorite has finished in the top three 79 percent of the time over the last three decades. If you are playing the superfecta, keep in mind the favorite has only missed finishing in the top four three times in the last 29 editions of the race.
Pimlico Surface Fair to All Running Styles
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One of the biggest misconceptions of the Preakness and Pimlico Race Course is that the race and the surface favor speed.
Yes, the Preakness is a shorter distance—run at 1 3/16 miles, while the Derby is at 1 1/4 miles—but the racing surface plays fair to all running styles. Over the past 29 runnings, we have seen six winners go gate to wire. There have been 13 that were considered stalkers, or horses that sat off the pace or mid-pack.
There have been nine winners that have come from far off the pace to rally for the victory.
According to Jim Mazur, horses landing in the place and show spots tend to come from off the pace.
That is far from a racing surface that is kind to speed.
Don’t Bet on Urinal Races
10 of 10If you plan on heading out to Pimlico on Saturday afternoon and do a little partying in the infield, you will notice something a little different.
Much of the debauchery that made the Preakness the “blue collar” race of the Triple Crown for years is gone. No longer can patrons lug in as much beer as they want in wheelbarrows and wagons.
In addition, the “Running of the Urinals” is a thing of the past. No longer can fans spend the time in between races hurling beer cans at drunks running across the top of the urinals at Pimlico.
It is sad, but thanks to YouTube, we can relieve the memories forever.
Enjoy Preakness Day.
Betting odds via Odds Shark. Statistics via Triple Crown Handicapper.
Follow Michael Dempsey on Twitter @turfnsport
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