2015 Preakness: Post Positions, Odds and Predicted Winner for Saturday's Race
One down, two to go.
American Pharoah took home the Kentucky Derby title with an overpowering finishing kick from the outside and looked the part of a potential Triple Crown candidate in the process. Now he heads into Saturday's Preakness with plenty of momentum (and ridiculously low odds) on his side, especially since there are only seven other horses competing.
However, two of those horses are the formidable Dortmund and Firing Line, which means a victory at Pimlico will be no easy task. It became even more difficult Wednesday when American Pharoah landed the No. 1 post during the post-position draw.
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Here is a look at the post positions and odds for the entire field. The odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and are accurate as of Thursday at 5 p.m. ET.
| 1 | American Pharoah | 10-13 | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Dortmund | 15-4 | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia |
| 3 | Mr. Z | 25-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | 14-1 | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | 50-1 | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | 50-1 | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy |
| 7 | Divining Rod | 20-1 | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Firing Line | 17-4 | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens |
Predicted Winner: American Pharoah
Despite the unfavorable post position, American Pharoah will take the next step toward a Triple Crown with a victory at Saturday's Preakness.
The performance at Churchill Downs was no fluke. He was already a three-time Grade 1 stakes winner leading up to the Kentucky Derby (the Del Mar Futurity, the FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita and the Arkansas Derby) and now has five straight wins under his belt.
Those five straight wins came by a combined 23.25 lengths, which underscores his versatility as a dominant race horse. Most of those victories came in front-running fashion in which he left the field behind after a quick start (hence, the 23.25 lengths), but the comeback at Churchill Downs proved that a late charge is in his arsenal as well.
Jockey Victor Espinoza will adjust accordingly on Saturday, depending on how fast the rest of the field runs out of the gate.
The presence of Espinoza helps Pharoah's chances at the Preakness. Espinoza guided War Emblem to a Kentucky Derby and Preakness title in 2002 and then did the same last year with California Chrome. He is accustomed to entering Pimlico under the brightest of spotlights and has thrived with the favored horse.
There is no reason to expect anything differently this time around with American Pharoah.
Trainer Bob Baffert's resume also bodes well for Pharoah, as he watched three of his horses parlay Kentucky Derby wins into Preakness victories (Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998 and War Emblem in 2002). Baffert boasts five Preakness titles in all and discussed his position with Pharoah, via Joe Drape of The New York Times:
"Once you get through the Derby, you know your horses.
You have to be in top form to win the Kentucky Derby, so it’s a matter of keeping them galloping and just getting them there. If your horses are coming off a big effort in the Derby and they’ve run well, then they’re pretty tough to beat.
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American Pharoah certainly will be tough to beat.
Granted, the No. 1 post position is less than ideal, but it is not as devastating as it would have been in the Kentucky Derby. There are eight horses at the Preakness instead of 19, which means there is more room to operate and not as much fear of being pinned against the rail with nowhere to go in the last half of the race.
That is especially the case with a veteran jockey like Espinoza leading the way.
American Pharoah's biggest competition is Dortmund, who is in post No. 2. Both are in similar situations where they must get out to a quick start or otherwise risk falling behind and getting trapped on the inside. It is not much of an advantage for American Pharoah's most dangerous threat, which somewhat nullifies the downside of landing the No. 1 post.
Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports pointed out just how Pharoah can win Saturday:
"Coming from well outside in the 18-horse Derby, Espinoza was wise to keep his horse largely clear of traffic by racing to the right of Dortmund and Firing Line. But that meant he went the long way to the wire. According to Trakus, which charts exactly how far horses run in a race, American Pharoah ran 29 feet farther than Firing Line and 69 feet farther than rail-hugging Dortmund. And he still won the race.
If Espinoza can keep his colt from getting pinned to the rail from the No. 1 post Saturday, it should be an easier trip. Also, if a forecast for rain Saturday holds true, American Pharoah is the lone member of the Big Three who's proven he can handle an off track, having danced over the slop in winning the Rebel Stakes in March.
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If American Pharoah won the Kentucky Derby despite the fact that he ran much farther than Firing Line and Dortmund, we should expect yet another victory from the inside position at the Preakness on Saturday.
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