Preakness Odds 2015: Horses to Avoid and Safest Jockeys to Bet This Year
In contrast to the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes field is typically a tiny group of only the top contenders plus a few local dark horses. The two-week turnaround is simply an untenable amount of rest for most horses, as many Derby entries need a five-week layoff before the Belmont Stakes.
The 2015 Preakness Stakes boasts a relatively small eight-horse field led by Derby champ American Pharoah and top-three finishers Firing Line and Dortmund. That trio was among the favorites at Churchill Downs, so after following through with the pre-race hype, it's hard to envision all won't be near the lead down the stretch at Pimlico Race Course as well.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
But simply betting the top three won't earn much of a return, so how can savvy bettors exploit the mainstream consensus? Taking a look at the odds and race information, let's highlight some horses who don't look like strong bets at Pimlico as well as the jockeys most likely to keep their horses near the lead and deliver you a return.
| 1 | American Pharoah | 10-13 | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Dortmund | 15-4 | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia |
| 3 | Mr. Z | 25-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | 14-1 | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | 50-1 | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | 50-1 | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy |
| 7 | Divining Rod | 20-1 | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Firing Line | 17-4 | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens |
Horses to Avoid
Dortmund
Trainer Bob Baffert's "other" horse was undefeated until his third-place finish at the Run for the Roses, but in drawing the No. 2 post, Dortmund received a tough blow to his front-running strategy. Given that the Preakness is the shortest Triple Crown race at just 1 3/16 miles (9.5 furlongs), this always represented Dortmund's likeliest win.
However, it will be extremely difficult for him to break out front so near the rail right next to his stablemate, American Pharoah. Baffert acknowledged that while the relatively small field will make that draw less harmful than it would have been at the Derby, he still would have preferred a wider post:
Jockey Martin Garcia has won this race before, having taken first in 2010 on Lookin at Lucky. Moreover, sired by Big Brown, Dortmund's bloodlines indicate a horse capable of winning this race. Big Brown, of course, captured the first two Triple Crown legs in 2008 before capitulating to an injury at the Belmont Stakes.
But even though he'll likely get out ahead of Pharoah early on, Dortmund isn't the type of horse who will surpass challengers down the stretch while chasing from behind. His post draw makes it difficult for him to run the type of race he's comfortable with. So given his short odds, Dortmund probably isn't a better bet than, say, Firing Line if you're looking for an upset.
Danzig Moon
The fifth-place finisher at Churchill Downs, Danzig Moon is a popular sleeper pick here at 14-1 odds. Bettors have zeroed in on Mark Casse's horse as the clear fourth choice behind the Big Three, making him a popular bet in trifectas.
However, the rationale behind that choice is not entirely clear. While the fifth-place finish was not bad considering the level of competition, Danzig Moon has yet to show he can be anything besides a secondary runner against top-level three-year-olds.
Indeed, his only win was a Maiden Special Weight race at Gulfstream Park in February. In three graded stakes races, Danzig Moon has never cratered, but he's also yet to break through:
| Tampa Bay Derby - Grade 2 | 3/7/15 | Tampa Bay | 4th |
| Toyota Blue Grass Stakes - Grade 1 | 4/4/15 | Keeneland | 2nd |
| Kentucky Derby - Grade 1 | 5/2/15 | Churchill Downs | 5th |
The second-place finish at Keeneland looks a little less impressive after what we found out at Churchill Downs.
The winner, Carpe Diem, was the third favorite at the Derby, per Odds Shark, only to disappoint and finish in 10th. The third-place finisher in that race, Ocho Ocho Ocho, ended up 14th in the 18-horse field. While Danzig Moon may have proved to be the best horse from the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes field, that feat is not nearly as impressive in the wake of the Derby results.
Danzig Moon is not necessarily a poor choice, but it's also hard to envision him breaking through against favorites with much stronger resumes. Perhaps he's the best of the other five horses, but that doesn't necessarily justify his odds being much shorter.
Safest Jockeys
Victor Espinoza
Riding American Pharoah, Espinoza has now had the Derby winner for two consecutive years after taking California Chrome to victory at Churchill Downs. Chrome, of course, was one of the strongest Triple Crown contenders we've seen in recent memory, giving Espinoza recent experience in this limelight.
The 42-year-old has won the Preakness twice, with War Emblem in 2002 being the other instance. However, the Preakness is not his only experience at Pimlico, as Espinoza has had three wins and a runner-up finish in races at the Baltimore track since 2000:
In the two-week interval between races, Espinoza has come under some fire for his excessive whip usage down the stretch, a tactic some believe might have worn out American Pharoah and cost the horse a realistic shot at the Triple Crown. It's a legitimate concern beyond ethical reasons, and if Pharoah needs a similar push at Pimlico, that bodes poorly for his chances at Belmont.
Thus, look for Espinoza to change up his strategy a bit, even as Pharoah starts right next to the post. He won't necessarily be able to lag behind, but given how the Derby ended, expect Espinoza to try to keep Pharoah closer to the pace in the race's first half.
Gary Stevens
Stevens is the most decorated jockey in the field, a Hall of Famer who has won over 5,000 career races, including 10 Breeders' Cup starts and nine Triple Crown races. The 52-year-old, who will be riding Firing Line from the outermost post, No. 8, has captured the Preakness three times, most recently in 2013 with Oxbow.
Unlike the Baffert horses, who will likely be trapped early and need to make up ground in the middle and latter stages of the race, Stevens has an opportunity to run Firing Line's race as he pleases. Starting out wide is rather advantageous in a small field, something the jockey acknowledges should play in his favor come Saturday:
Perhaps that early edge will finally push Firing Line over the top. Simon Callaghan's horse has never finished worse than second in six career starts, but he also has just one win in four career graded stakes races, and that came at the relatively nondescript Grade 3 Sunland Derby in March.
Firing Line has a longer track record of sustained success than someone like Danzig Moon, but the second favorite in this race has nearly as much to prove.
Stevens should keep Firing Line's streak of no worse than runner-up finishes alive. Whether he pushes the horse over the top could depend on what type of strategy he chooses in the early stages of the race, as he is in the enviable position of dictating to both of the Baffert horses.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
