American Pharoah Will Conquer Poor Preakness Draw and Race Toward Triple Crown

There’s a certain amount of fear attached to being drawn in Post 1 for any of the thoroughbred chases that make up the Triple Crown. But if American Pharoah is going to become the first winner of the three illustrious races in a single year since 1978, he’ll have to keep his dreams alive from the rail in the Preakness Stakes.

While the opening gate isn’t quite as detrimental to a horse’s chances at Pimlico as it is at Churchill Downs, the position is still far from ideal for the Kentucky Derby champion. And yet, as we can see here, the three-year-old is still the big favourite for glory in Maryland on Saturday:

Post	Horse	Odds	Trainer	Jockey
1	American Pharoah	10-13	Bob Baffert	Victor Espinoza
2	Dortmund	17-4	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia
3	Mr. Z	33-1	D. Wayne Lukas	Corey Nakatani
4	Danzig Moon	20-1	Mark Casse	Julien Leparoux
5	Tale of Verve	50-1	Dallas Stewart	Joel Rosario
6	Bodhisattva	50-1	Jose Corrales	Trevor McCarthy
7	Divining Rod	20-1	Arnaud Delacour	Javier Castellano
8	Firing Line	17-4	Simon Callaghan	Gary Stevens

When you consider his stable-mate, the second favourite Dortmund, will be directly to the right of him and the runner-up in the Run for the Roses, Firing Line, will have the luxury of Post 8, these odds are a staggering reflection of American Pharoah’s quality.

However, as noted by horse racing expert Tom Hall, previous winners of the Triple Crown have had to overcome obstacles similar to what the pre-race favourite will have to conquer this weekend:

The previous statistic just goes to show that winning the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes is never easy. Given how expectation, fortune and fatigue can play such an important role in the pursuit of this coveted title, things can easily go wrong, but the very best have usually rallied to get over their hindrances.

Bob Baffert—who trains the Derby winner—admitted the draw, which sees his two best hopes in the first and second posts, is far from ideal, but he attempted to put things into perspective, per Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun:

"

At least we're here, going for the second leg [of the Triple Crown] and that's more important.

If they had told me, 'Look it, if you win the Kentucky Derby, we're going to have to stick you in the one hole at Pimlico,' I'd have said, 'I'll take that all day long.

It depends on your horse. My horses are fast, so they just have to break well.

"

Garry Jones/Associated Press

That will be the challenge facing American Pharoah, and although he hasn’t had the best of luck in picking Post 1, Justin Zayat—the son of the horse’s owner Ahmed—still has great faith in the colt’s ability to work from the rail:

There are a few encouraging factors for American Pharoah, too. While Victor Espinoza timed his run to the finish superbly at Kentucky, the colt is renowned for being a classy front-runner. Provided they get a strong breakaway here, the Derby champion should have enough to get into a position of real authority in the latter stages.

Rob Carr/Getty Images

In addition, this race will only see seven horses careering across to try and suffocate space on the rail, compared to a typical 19 at Churchill Downs. Of the three Triple Crown races, this is the one which you’d be most content with being stuck on the inside.

Ray Parisi of CNBC is choosing to see the draw as an omen more than anything else:

The most pertinent factor of all is the fact that American Pharoah is the classiest horse in the field. Alongside Dortmund and Firing Line, the leading trio from Kentucky should have far too much for the other five competitors, meaning it shouldn’t be much of a squeeze coming out of the gate and establishing an early rhythm.

In a race that is just half a furlong shorter than the blue ribband chase at Churchill Downs, expect Espinoza—who doubled up Kentucky and Preakness last year aboard California Chrome—to manoeuvre Pharaoh into position easily, before racing clear with the post in sight.