Preakness 2015 Horses and Jockeys with Best Odds of Winning at Pimlico
Race week for the 2015 Preakness Stakes has been dominated by withdrawals that leave just eight contenders slated for Saturday's race. But Wednesday's post position draw returns focus squarely back to the race itself.
Alas, trainer Todd Pletcher's Tuesday decision to remove all four of his horses from the field is now old news. Implications of that on the Belmont Stakes can be assessed later, because every indication is that American Pharoah won't have an easy time continuing his Triple Crown hopes past Pimlico Race Course.
With the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans fast approaching, let's look at the post draw and top contenders for the race.
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2015 Preakness Stakes Post Draw
| 1 | American Pharoah | 2-3 | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Dortmund | 9-2 | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia |
| 3 | Mr. Z | 40-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | 14-1 | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | 50-1 | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | 50-1 | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy |
| 7 | Divining Rod | 14-1 | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Firing Line | 17-4 | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark, last updated May 13
Horses and Jockeys with Best Odds
American Pharoah (Victor Espinoza): 2-3
It's either no big deal or a huge deal.
That's the feeling regarding American Pharoah after he took the No. 1 post during Wednesday night's post position draw. Only one horse since 1960 has won the Preakness from that spot, with Tabasco Cat accomplishing the feat in 1994.
At Churchill Downs, jockey Victor Espinoza was able to keep American Pharoah in an ideal position for the entire race—not leading until late but always right behind the pace-setters and in the right spot to strike late. It will be tough to get that same freedom off the rail at Pimlico.
As told by track announcer Travis Stone, it will be another ultimate test for American Pharoah's Triple Crown case:
Trainer Bob Baffert's disappointment has to be palpable after both of his horses—American Pharoah and Dortmund—drew the first two posts, respectively. His belief in them has never wavered, but their ability will be put to the task.
Baffert could directly end his own Triple Crown hopes if Dortmund is able to box in American Pharoah on the rail. But considering how American Pharoah stepped up to the challenge at Churchill Downs, it would be surprising to see him do any different at Pimlico.
Firing Line (Gary Stevens): 17-4
Revenge was in order for Firing Line at Churchill Downs, as he overtook Dortmund after finishing second fiddle to him in two previous races. Perhaps more revenge will be in store Saturday, involving Baffert's other darling.
Even amid a miraculous run down the stretch at the Derby, Firing Line wasn't the best horse down the stretch as American Pharoah barely beat him out. The one-length defeat could be the stepping stone toward stealing the show at the Preakness.
The draw set him and jockey Gary Stevens up perfectly to do just that, starting on the outside at the No. 8 post. American Pharoah had the options outside at the Derby, but it's a role reversal at Pimlico as Stevens told Sports Illustrated's Tim Layden:
If Dortmund and American Pharoah make life difficult for one another on the inside, it could allow Firing Line to jump out in front—unlike at Churchill Downs. Holding on to that lead past the inevitable push from the favorites, however, will be a tough ask.
Dortmund (Martin Garcia): 9-2
Wednesday's draw didn't prove to be ideal for Dortmund, but his camp can take solace in knowing it has the chief foe right where it wants him.
Dortmund won't have an easy go of things from the No. 2 post, which hasn't produced a Preakness winner since Snow Chief in 1986. But at least he is in control of what American Pharoah does in the opening few furlongs.
All it takes is a strong start from the No. 2 post, and the No. 1 horse can be put in jeopardy of being boxed in. Considering Dortmund ran as the pace-setter for most of the Derby and simply ran out of gas late, he could very well do that.
Arguably the largest horse in the field, Dortmund's size should be another benefactor to his chances of holding off American Pharoah. But unless he is able to give the Derby winner adversity that he can't come back from, Dortmund will have to hold him off down the stretch as well.
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