Pau Gasol's Return Is Only Shot Chicago Bulls Have to Keep Series vs. Cavs Alive
Pau Gasol is officially listed as probable for Game 6, and he may be the only thing standing between his Chicago Bulls and definite elimination against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
A sore hamstring kept Gasol out of Games 4 and 5, but he'll be back as the Bulls face a possible playoff exit for the first time this postseason, per Nick Friedell of ESPNChicago.com:
As the big man explained to K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune, however, it's not exactly clear how much he'll be able to contribute: "Whatever percentage I'm at, that's what I'll give," Gasol said.
The Bulls will need Gasol's return to be more than ceremonial.
One issue to address upfront: There are plenty of strong arguments from informed observers that Gasol's return might actually be a bad thing for Chicago.
When Gasol's hamstring injury initially happened, NBA analyst Nate Duncan believed it improved the Bulls' chances against the Cavs:
And when Chicago's defense looked better in stretches without Gasol, that theory got some supporting evidence:
There's even some statistical backing from the regular season that Gasol's impact on the Bulls is at best neutral and at worst negative. According to NBA.com, Chicago's offensive rating was nearly identical whether Gasol was on the court or not during the year. Defensively, the Bulls were nearly a point per 100 possessions stingier with the Spaniard on the pine.
Based on the biggest set of numbers we have (the regular-season data), it's fair to wonder whether Gasol matters much.
Leading the league in double-doubles is great, but the Bulls were actually better on the boards when Gasol sat. And his lack of mobility was a real issue in Chicago's defensive scheme.
Nonetheless, Gasol's on-court impact against the Cavs has been markedly positive. And as the playoffs remind us every year, regular-season numbers don't always help predict how players will perform in short series against specific matchups.
That's why it might be more sensible to focus on Gasol's performance in this series instead of his regular-season body of work. Specifically, that means we should pay attention to the plus-20.9 net rating the Bulls ran up with Gasol and Joakim Noah together on the court, per NBA.com.
And the fact that the Bulls' net rating drops by 3.6 points per 100 possessions against the Cavaliers when Gasol has been off the floor.
You could argue against the value of those numbers on the grounds they reflect relatively small samples of court time. And you could point to Gasol's bad hamstring as a reason not to expect similar value going forward.
Gasol's not perfect, and there's clearly risk in relying on him as some sort of savior.
But he's the best bet the Bulls have, because his presence on the court shores up the weaknesses that have hurt them in this series. And no, of course Gasol can't do anything about LeBron James hitting contested game-winners. Nobody can.
Lulls in scoring have killed Chicago, though, and Gasol can help prevent those brutal, bucketless periods.
For example, James' clutch, series-swinging basket as time expired in Game 4 might not have meant anything if the Bulls could have avoided a pair of crippling scoring droughts earlier in the contest. They went scoreless for a full six minutes in the second quarter, and a 16-point fourth quarter allowed the Cavaliers to steal the contest at the buzzer.
Game 5 saw Chicago shoot just 39.5 percent from the field as Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler had to shoulder nearly all of the scoring burden, each logging more than 40 minutes in the losing effort.
Those two may not be able to hold up under such a burden, especially with Noah looking nothing like the capable distributor he was when he finished fourth in MVP voting last season.
Gasol is a mid-range threat whose jumper drags defenders out of the lane. With him on the floor, there are more driving and cutting angles for the Bulls' guards and wings. Easier access to the lane creates kick-out chances that could help get looks for Mike Dunleavy and Nikola Mirotic.
It's a ripple-effect thing with Gasol. Having him out there, even if he's hobbled, can generate scoring opportunities for everybody. And with Noah's hands having inexplicably abandoned him, Gasol is also the Bulls' best elbow facilitator.
Chicago looked best on offense in Game 1, when Gasol put up 21 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and four blocks on 10-of-16 shooting. He was deadly from the perimeter, and Chicago's offense played well as a result, connecting on 50 percent of its field-goal attempts overall.
Gasol's interplay with Rose in that game clearly gave the Cavaliers problems.
Yes, the defense is likely to suffer. But the Bulls offense has been the bigger source of concern against Cleveland. And Gasol's reintegration into the lineup should help.
If you step back for a second, this is really what Gasol was supposed to provide all along.
From the moment he signed last summer, this was what everyone hoped he'd bring: the smarts and inside-outside touch necessary to spice up an attack that had always been bland. Adding his skill and finesse to a frontcourt short on both (but long on physicality and enthusiasm for dirty work) was the final step in Chicago's contender construction.
Whatever shortcomings Gasol has, he can still be the offensive drink-stirrer the Bulls need.
Will his return be enough to overcome James' looming greatness and a cast of Cavs role players gaining confidence by the second? Maybe not.
But it's the best shot the Bulls have.
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