MLB Power Rankings: Dissecting Each Team's Postseason Chances
It feels like the 2015 MLB season just started, but we're already halfway through May, with the blurry picture we were handed in April beginning to clear up and take shape.
It's far too early to tell for certain where each team will finish. Injuries lurk, prospects emerge and trades will be secretively talked about for months.
But we have an idea of who our favorites are, and a clearer idea of what October might look like.
These power rankings take several things into account when considering each team's place: current standing; divisional strength; injury concerns; potential trades; prospects who could be called up; positional weaknesses; and FanGraphs' projected regular-season record.
Each metric is considered and weighed when determining where each team fits. A slow start doesn't necessarily preclude a team from a high ranking, just as an unexpectedly successful start doesn't bar a team from a low ranking. It's about sorting out legitimate contenders and false candidates, while paying attention to trends that may or may not continue as the season goes on.
Baseball is heavily influenced by a broad range of statistics, but I've chosen a few from FanGraphs to illustrate each team's strengths and weaknesses (all definitions from FanGraphs' glossary):
Wins above replacement (WAR): "WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth +6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth +3.5 wins, which means it is highly likely that Player X has been more valuable than Player Y."
Weighted on-base average (wOBA): "One of the most important and popular catch-all offensive statistics. It was created by Tom Tango (and notably used in The Book) to measure a hitter’s overall offensive value, based on the relative values of each distinct offensive event. Weighted on-base average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value."
Weighted runs created (wRC): "An improved version of Bill James’ runs created (RC) statistic, which attempted to quantify a player’s total offensive value and measure it by runs. Weighted runs created plus (wRC+) measures how a player’s wRC compares with league average after controlling for park effects. League average for position players is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average."
On-base plus slugging (OPS): "The sum of a player’s on-base percentage and their slugging percentage. OPS has value as a metric because it is the only widely accepted statistic that accounts for all the different aspects of offense: contact, patience and power."
Defense (Def): "Combination of two important factors of defensive performance: value relative to positional average (fielding runs) and positional value relative to other positions (positional adjustment)."
Walks plus hits per innings pitched (WHIP): "Measures how many baserunners a pitcher lets up."
Fielding independent pitching (FIP): "Measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league-average results on balls in play and league-average timing."
Anything not addressed here will be explained in the relevant slide, though these are the numbers we'll mostly be sticking with.
I'll be spending more time discussing the top teams, as they have a legitimate chance of making the playoffs and embarking on a deep postseason run.
So, with that out of the way, let's get into the rankings.
30. Philadelphia Phillies
1 of 27
| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Div. Finish | Farm System |
| 13-23 | -63 | 65-97 | -156 | 5 | 21 |
The Phillies captured five consecutive NL East titles—winning a World Series in year two of that run—from 2007 to 2011. They haven't finished over .500 since.
The struggle in the City of Brotherly Love is very real, made even more real by the fact that there's no visible salvation on the horizon. The sun set a long time ago on those great Phillies teams. It's been darkness ever since.
About one-fifth of the way through the 2015 MLB season, much is up for debate. One thing that isn't is this: The Philadelphia Phillies are baseball's worst team.
The Phillies have baseball's ninth-highest payroll, per Spotrac, but have absolutely nothing to show for it.
Chase Utley may very well be the worst everyday player in baseball. Ryan Howard, on pace to finish with 143 strikeouts in 143 games played, swings like he's trying to bust open a pinata, to varying degrees of effectiveness.
They're just two of the reasons Philadelphia ranks dead last in the majors in home runs, runs scored, wOBA and wRC+.
Rookie outfielder Odubel Herrera has been solid in his first taste of MLB action, though his .304 on-base percentage and 33-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio doesn't exactly scream "plate patience."
Really, the lone offensive bright spot in this season of misery has been 25-year-old shortstop Freddy Galvis.
From CSNPhilly.com's Corey Seidman:
"Galvis' emergence as a quality major-league bat has been the most positive and refreshing storyline of the Phils' young season. When you add in his defense, it makes him a legitimate piece for the future. Many expected Galvis to be merely a placeholder for top prospect J.P. Crawford, but if these 122 plate appearances were a sign of things to come, he'll have a spot in the Phillies' infield moving forward.
In Tuesday night's game, Phillies assistant GM Scott Proefrock joined the broadcast booth and told Tom McCarthy and Ben Davis that Galvis is likely the team's best defensive shortstop, third baseman, second baseman, corner outfielder and centerfielder.
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It's probably not ideal that one player is your team's best fielder at five different positions but, then again, these are the Phillies.
Cole Hamels is their one legitimate trade asset at the moment, though he hasn't even been Philly's best pitcher. That honor goes to 37-year-old Aaron Harang, because sense flew out the window here a long time ago.
The Phillies' pitching staff as a whole has been dreadful. They rank in the lower third of the league in FIP, ERA, WHIP and strikeout percentage.
The farm system boasts some solid talent in the form of shortstop J.P. Crawford (Baseball America No. 14) and corner infielder Maikel Franco (Baseball America No. 56), though neither player has a clear path to The Show right now.
With the league's worst record and run differential, this could end up being a historically bad season for the Phillies. At this point, success might just be developing Herrera and Galvis while making a smart deal with Hamels, Harang and closer Jonathan Papelbon that returns some legitimate young talent to build a future around.
There's really not much to look forward to in Philadelphia this season but, hey, at least Tim Tebow's in town, right?
29. Colorado Rockies
2 of 27
| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 12-19 | -50 | 73-89 | -94 | 5 | 8 |
Another lost season in Colorado means it's finally time to cut ties with shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. An eternal fixture on the trading block for what seems like decades, Tulo's career needs to escape the Rockies in a bad way.
Tulowitzki has said he won't demand a trade, per the Denver Post's Patrick Saunders, though both Tulo and agent Paul Cohen are prepared for any impending deal:
""Whatever happens on the Rockies' end happens, but for me to sit here and try to force my way out of here, that's not the case," [Tulowitzki] said.
"The one thing I do want to make clear is that I don't know where the talk came from of me demanding a trade," he said. "There is no talk like that and never has been. And my relationship with the Rockies ... we never wanted it to get to that point."
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Well, it is to that point. It's only a matter of time before Tulo departs from the dumpster fire that is Colorado Rockies baseball.
The Rockies don't lack for offensive talent. DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Corey Dickerson and Charlie Blackmon are all above average, at the very least, at their respective positions.
So a trade involving Tulo would likely look to net some high-caliber pitching prospects, though Jon Gray (Baseball America No. 24), Kyle Freeland (Baseball America No. 60) and Eddie Butler (Baseball America No. 77) make up a good young minor league stable.
Rockies starting pitchers have a collective ERA of 5.54, the worst in the league. So they'll likely need help sooner than their young studs can provide.
All in all, this is simply another lost year for the Rockies. They'll have to hope to rebuild through a Tulowitzki trade while continuing to develop 24-year-old Arenado into one of the premier third basemen in the MLB.
Really, that's all they have to go on right now.
28. Milwaukee Brewers
3 of 27
| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Div. Finish | Farm System |
| 12-23 | -46 | 72-90 | -77 | 5 | 19 |
It's difficult for a team to find success without its two best players on the field. Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy have combined to play in just 29 games, which has plunged the Brewer offense to the bottom tier of every major offensive category. Jean Segura heading to the DL with a broken pinky finger should only exacerbate matters.
The Brewers rank 27th in wOBA (.290) and last in wRC+ (77). Milwaukee's best offensive player might be 31-year-old first baseman Adam Lind.
The poor start cost Ron Roenicke his job on May 4.
That's all good and well, but the Brewers' problems go far deeper than a manager, as ESPN's Christina Kahrl explains:
"It's in the lineup where Roenicke had to deal with a trifecta of tribulations; his ultimate replacement certainly can't be expected to deal with them any better. First, there is potential superstar center fielder Carlos Gomez and his limited familiarity with health, hampering both the Brewers' ability to win now as well as whatever potential can get for him in a deal. Then there's the steady decline of Aramis Ramirez during the course of his four-year contract as the big-budget bopper signed to replace Prince Fielder in the heart of the order. Signing Ramirez was Melvin's decision, and will be part of whatever gets held against the general manager once his day with the axe man cometh.
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A new manager isn't a miraculous cure-all for these ailments. And that isn't even mentioning the decline of Ryan Braun.
This is all likely leading to a fire sale, as the Brewers have already let teams know that Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza and Aramis Ramirez are on the trading block, with more to come, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale.
With just the No. 19 farm system in the MLB and an aging roster, Milwaukee's best hope is to sell veterans to contenders for talented young prospects, while shedding some salary.
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27. Texas Rangers
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Div. Finish | Farm System |
| 15-21 | -22 | 72-90 | -81 | 5 | 11 |
The Texas Rangers find their once-proud ship sinking alongside Philadelphia's.
The Rangers won at lest 90 games in four consecutive seasons from 2010 to 2013, losing in back-to-back World Series in 2010 and 2011.
Texas was decimated by injury last season. It had to employ 64 batters and 40 pitchers, the most in the team's history, per Baseball-Reference.
There haven't been any true injuries to blame this year. The Rangers have just been plain bad.
FanGraphs projects Texas to finish with the third-worst run differential in the league, ahead of only Colorado and Philadelphia.
Prince Fielder (.346 BA, .396 OBP, 4 HR, 19 RBI) has played well, but with a team batting average of just .233, he rarely has anyone on base to drive in.
Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo and Leonys Martin are all batting below .250, while Rougned Odor (.144 BA) took a major step back this season, necessitating a demotion to Triple-A Round Rock, per the Dallas Morning News' Evan Grant.
Texas reacquired Josh Hamilton from the Los Angeles Angels on April 28. Hamilton fell out of favor in Los Angeles following a drug and alcohol relapse. A move back to Texas, where he has a strong support system, made sense for both teams.
"Between 2012 and 2015, a lot of my support system was kind of removed or kind of pushed away and other pieces added, not all by my doing," Hamilton said following the trade, per ESPN.com. "I've taken it back to 2012, pre-2012, as far as having my same support group that I want to have and that I get along with and I feel like is the best for me. I've put all those pieces back in place."
Hamilton is with Triple-A Round Rock. According to Grant, he's looked better than he has, both on and off the field, in years: "I don’t know that the LA Angels experience 'humbled' him, but I do think he’s genuinely thankful for the opportunity the Rangers have presented him. He seemed at ease in the Round Rock clubhouse and at ease with his surroundings."
Hamilton's well-being is more important than baseball, but these reports out of Round Rock appear to indicate he's ready and more than willing to come back to the majors and contribute once more.
But even if Hamilton is able to return to even 75 percent of his former self, the Rangers' offense—ranked among the lower-third of the MLB in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS—is too inept to be considered salvageable.
The pitching has actually been decent considering it began the season at a distinct disadvantage.
Yu Darvish was lost before the season even began after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Without Darvish, the onus has fallen on Yovani Gallardo, Colby Lewis and Nick Martinez to anchor the staff.
Lewis (3-2, 2.40 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and Martinez (2-0, 1.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) have been strong thus far, but apart from that there hasn't been much to get excited over. Texas ranks 17th in ERA (4.05) and 23rd in FIP (4.30), and their defense has been solid, if unspectacular, ranking 12th among all MLB teams.
They have some good talent in the minors.
Left fielder Ryan Rua was called up earlier this season, but only played in five games before suffering an ankle fracture colliding with a wall. He'll be out until June, per the Dallas Morning News.
Third baseman Joey Gallo (Baseball America No. 6) is the true gem here, though with Beltre entrenched at third and Fielder the designated hitter, it's unlikely we see Gallo this season, barring injury or trade.
No trades are imminent, but the Rangers are poised to be sellers, so anything is possible in the coming weeks.
Unfortunately for Texas, this looks to be another lost season, one it'll likely finish floundering at the bottom of the AL West.
26. Atlanta Braves
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 15-19 | -13 | 73-89 | -68 | 4 | 15 |
The Atlanta Braves have talent, just not enough to compete in the NL East.
They have a solid trio of 25-year-old cornerstones in shortstop Andrelton Simmons, second baseman Jace Peterson and first baseman Freddie Freeman, and the offense as a whole has been above average, especially with runners in scoring position.
It's the pitching that draws ire here. Hopefully Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine don't catch too many Braves games, because these arms are no better than a pitching machine.
As Bleacher Report's Daniel Kock points out, if it wasn't for offseason acquisition Shelby Miller, this would likely be the worst staff in baseball:
"Shelby Miller continues to dominate every time he gets the ball. If he continues to pitch this effectively, the Braves will be extremely pleased with trading Jason Heyward for him this past offseason.
Miller's latest gem was a complete-game, three-hit shutout of the Phillies. He struck out eight and needed just 99 pitches.
For the season, Miller is 4-1 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He has held opponents to just a .178 average.
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Mike Minor will be back next season, which should help, but Atlanta really needs rotational help.
The Braves haven't been mentioned in any trade talks thus far, and they don't appear willing to ship out any prospects after making several big deals this offseason.
It looks like no more than a middling season for Atlanta, but the continued development of Simmons, Peterson and Freeman will help mitigate the sting of a lost year.
25. Chicago White Sox
6 of 27
| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 14-17 | -35 | 77-85 | -54 | 4 | 20 |
Let's be blunt: The White Sox were terrible in April.
They finished 8-11 while giving up 89 runs and scoring just 64. It stung even more because it was so unexpected.
But it appears that the White Sox have finally begun to turn things around, per ESPN.com's Doug Padilla: "One of the biggest turnarounds has been with the offense, that was dead last in home runs in all of baseball not that long ago. Now the White Sox have hit 10 home runs in their past eight games, and Wednesday's first-inning power display came with Jose Abreu getting the day off."
The White Sox are 6-6 in May and have scored as many runs (50) as they've given up. It's not great, but it's certainly a start.
The pitching staff has struggled mightily, posting the fifth-worst ERA in baseball through May 15. Much of the onus for runs has fallen upon the defense, though, as Chicago actually has the 11th-best FIP in the league.
Chris Sale and Jeff Samardzija are looking more and more normal lately, and 22-year-old Carlos Rodon (12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 12 SO) looks like a young stud.
Still, even if the White Sox post a remarkable turnaround, they're unlikely to make up enough ground to snag a wild-card spot, according to FanGraphs' Dave Cameron:
"There was a scenario where things broke right and the White Sox became legitimate contenders — the Astros are currently in the midst of that scenario at the moment — but it was going to require the team's role players step up and fill some of the areas where the team was expected to get replacement level production.
That hasn't happened. ...
So they have roughly 80 games to get back in the race, and if Detroit and Kansas City play at even their modest projected rest-of-season winning percentages, the White Sox would have to play ~.650 baseball to overtake them by the end of July.
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And if the White Sox continue to flounder, they'll likely turn into trade partners for contenders.
But then again, a little improved defense, a return to form for their pitching rotation and a Jose Abreu onslaught could make things interesting on the South Side.
24. Cleveland Indians
7 of 27
| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Projected Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 12-21 | -23 | 80-82 | +5 | 3 | 22 |
The Indians record isn't good, but are they really that bad?
FanGraphs has the Indians finishing near .500, even after the wretched start, which means something must be up.
USA Today's Ted Berg thought the same thing, so he looked into the numbers and found that, yes, the Indians are indeed suffering from a bit of bad luck:
"Check this out: Every single pitcher that has started games for the Indians in 2015 has an ERA well above his FIP — Fielding Independent Pitching, a stat that estimates a pitcher’s ERA based on an average defense and typical luck. ERA-FIP, then, can be used to measure how much misfortune a pitcher or a pitching staff has endured due to lousy timing and lousy defense.
No team since the start of the live-ball era in 1920 has finished a season with an ERA-FIP over 0.33. The Cleveland Indians currently sport an astonishing 1.15 ERA-FIP. That will not hold.
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All of the numbers suggest that Cleveland has been playing far below its potential ceiling this season.
Offensively, Jason Kipnis (.316 BA, .383 OBP) and Michael Brantley (.330 BA, .403 OBP) have been solid, but the rest of the lineup is lacking.
Shortstop Jose Ramirez has just 16 hits in 90 at-bats, and his .218 OBP is an eyesore. This could mean a call-up for top-ranked prospect Francisco Lindor (Baseball America No. 9), though Cleveland.com's Zack Meisel reports that the young shortstop may have to wait a bit longer:
"General manager Chris Antonetti has stressed that top-ranked prospect Francisco Lindor is not ready for the big leagues. Lindor, 21, is batting .262 with a .347 on-base percentage, one home run, 11 RBIs and seven stolen bases at Triple-A Columbus. It's possible that the Indians could option Ramirez to Triple-A without promoting Lindor, perhaps as early as this weekend, if Mike Aviles decides he is ready to rejoin the active roster.
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The offense is going to need some help sooner rather than later if the Indians want to have any chance of competing for the final wild-card spot this season. But their slow start suggests they've already dug a hole too deep to escape.
23. Arizona Diamondbacks
8 of 27
| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 15-18 | +13 | 75-87 | -32 | 4 | 6 |
There's a lot to like in Arizona.
Paul Goldschmidt has transformed into a perennial MVP candidate. Every man in Arizona's four-man outfield rotation—A.J. Pollock, Ender Inciarte, Mark Trumbo and David Peralta—is hitting at least .284.
Cuban rookie Yasmany Tomas has yet to show off the power that earned him a $68 million contract, but his numbers (.288 BA, .344 OBP) are solid for a 24-year-old neophyte.
The team's .325 wOBA (sixth overall) is better than the Cardinals, Nationals, Yankees and Cubs.
The rotation is young, which means it's inconsistent.
Archie Bradley (20 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) was pitching like a prodigy before suffering a terrifying injury on a line drive to the face from Carlos Gonzalez. He's expected back this week, hopefully good as new and suffering no ill effects.
The real culprit for Arizona's 15-18 record, though, is the bullpen, which carries a 4.45 ERA, seventh worst in the MLB.
That, in addition to being in the same division as the Dodgers, Padres and Giants, is the main reason why Arizona will miss out on the playoffs again this season.
On the bright side, the Diamondbacks have the No. 1 overall selection in this year's draft.
There's no clear-cut No. 1 this year, but Baseball America has Arizona selecting UC Davis pitcher Dillon Tate:
"Let’s get this out of the way: Dillon Tate has No. 1 overall pick stuff. In last week’s start against UC Davis, he pitched at 93-95 mph before tiring a bit to the 90-93 range, with his slider dominating the Aggies, sitting 86-89 early. “Even at 82-83 later,” said one evaluator who was there, “it was still overpowering.”
Tate doesn’t have the usual track record of a No. 1 overall pick, so the Diamondbacks won’t take him if he demands the full $8,616,900 bonus value. But in this class, he makes sense for a franchise that has had many changes but has established a recent track record of success drafting power righthanders early, from Archie Bradley and Trevor Bauer (2011) to Braden Shipley and Aaron Blair (2013) to Touki Toussaint (2014).
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It may not be a ticket to the playoffs this year, but it's better than what most of the teams in this range can hope for this season.
22. Cincinnati Reds
9 of 27
| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Div. Finish | Farm System |
| 18-17 | 0 | 76-86 | -48 | 4 | 17 |
Coming off of a three-game sweep of the Braves, the Reds have lurched over the .500 mark, just one game in the win column behind the Cubs.
The Reds have a little bit of everything. They have sluggers in Marlon Byrd (8 HR) and Todd Frazier (12 HR), guys that can get on base in Zack Cozart (.321 BA) and Brandon Phillips (.311 BA) and one guy that does a little bit of both in Joey Votto (.298 BA, 7 HR, 21 RBI).
Billy Hamilton is baseball's premier speedster with 17 steals, though his .259 OBP will never get him confused with Rickey Henderson.
The Reds' rotation has been superb, posting a 3.32 ERA so far, fourth best in the MLB. But the bullpen has been a disaster, even with Aroldis Chapman being his usual dominant self. Reds relievers carry a cumulative 5.19 ERA, worst in the entire league.
And lest any sense of momentum be gained, trade rumors have begun swirling around Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, two guys leading that excellent rotation.
Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News reported on the feeding frenzy around Cueto during his last start:
"With Cueto on the mound Thursday night, 20 scouts showed up to watch, knowing that the Cincinnati Reds either are going to trade him or he will become a free agent after the season.
And they weren’t the ordinary advance scouts on hand. There were some heavy hitters like Randy Smith, special advisor with the San Diego Padres, and Ed Lynch, professional scout for the Toronto Blue Jays, among others.
They know Cueto and his agent refuse to negotiate a new contract with the Reds since the season began, they know the Reds are over a fish barrel as to what to do, so the fins are circling.
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That certainly puts a damper on the solid start to the season. The Reds have enough offensive ammunition and rotational depth to stay near .500 for most of the season, but that bullpen is going to haunt them until some moves are made.
After back-to-back 90-win season in 2012 and 2013, the Reds are now looking at back-to-back seasons with an early vacation.
Hopefully they'll be able to bring in some talent for Cueto and, if they deal him, Leake, but that's about as much as Cincinnati can hope for this season.
21. Oakland Athletics
10 of 27
| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Div. Finish | Farm System |
| 13-23 | +1 | 78-84 | +20 | 4 | 23 |
The Athletics have two players—Stephen Vogt and Josh Reddick—among the top 20 in WAR. They have a positive run differential. And they're currently 9.5 games behind the Astros in the AL West.
It's been a peculiar season in Oakland. They lost Josh Donaldson, but brought in Ben Zobrist, Billy Butler and closer Tyler Clippard.
Oakland ranks eighth in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA. Their starting pitchers own the sixth-best FIP and sixth-best ERA in baseball.
So, what gives?
Well, what gives is all the games the A's have given away, per FanGraphs' Dave Cameron:
"In low leverage situations, the A’s have allowed a .266 wOBA, third best in baseball. In high leverage situations, they’ve allowed a .411 wOBA, second worst* in baseball. For context, their pitchers have turned opposing hitters into Alexi Amarista in situations where the battle isn’t that close, but allowed them to morph into Mike Trout when the game is on the line. And that is why the A’s are 1-10 in one run contests this year.
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The Athletics' bullpen is the culprit here. A's relief pitchers have a cumulative 4.98 ERA, second worst in baseball. If your bullpen can't save you, you're going to lose close games.
As a result, the A's, despite above-average play from their offense and starting rotation, have floundered their season away by the middle of May.
That now means players like Zobrist, Clippard and Scott Kazmir are going to end up on the trading block as Billy Beane tries to work some magic and salvage something from this disaster.
Oakland still has a chance to finish with a decent record, but too much damage has been done in the early going to even think about making a playoff push late in the season.
20. Minnesota Twins
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 19-16 | +7 | 76-86 | -54 | 5 | 4 |
Well, this is certainly unexpected and, if we're to believe FanGraphs, fleeting.
The Twins don't do anything great, but they just seem to win.
Torii Hunter—yes, 39-year-old Hunter—leads the Twins in batting average (.281) home runs (six), RBI (21) and OPS (.818).
With Hunter leading the way, the Twins have been baseball's biggest surprise, even after an uninspiring start.
From FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan:
"This year’s Twins were projected to be bad, and that was before Ervin Santana got suspended. Seven games into the season, the Twins found themselves six games out of first place, with a run differential almost twice as bad as the next-worst in the American League. But, since then, it’s been a month. Over that month, the Twins have tied for the league’s best record, with twice as many wins as losses
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But, Sullivan continues, the craziest thing about this Minnesota season is that the Twins have underachieved, as ridiculous as that sounds:
"They’re projected to win 45% of their remaining games. The lineup is projected for a .309 wOBA. The lineup right now has an actual .308 wOBA. The bullpen is projected for a 3.93 FIP. The bullpen right now has an actual 3.93 FIP. The rotation is projected for a 4.11 FIP. The rotation right now has an actual 4.45 FIP. In this sense, the Twins have actually under-achieved. According to the projections, Twins starters will pitch a little better, but the team will still win fewer games. Getting better while getting worse.
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Even with that statistical backing, no one expects the Twins to keep this up. They live in the same division as the Tigers, Royals and White Sox. Even the Indians are dangerous, though they've gotten off to a poor start.
The Twins are unlikely to make a playoff push. The rest of the AL is just too good and the Twins are realistically not going to play at this pace all season.
My only advice to Twins fans: Enjoy it while it lasts, and hope your team continues to prove the doubters wrong.
19. Miami Marlins
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 16-19 | +2 | 80-82 | +2 | 3 | 26 |
The Marlins won't make the playoffs. They appear locked into the third spot in the NL East, behind the Nationals and Mets.
But man are they fun to watch sometimes.
Giancarlo Stanton is starting to regain his swagger from last year. Dee Gordon leads all players in WAR and is hitting a preposterous .426, which is bound to come down, but has been exceedingly fun to watch, as Grantland's Michael Baumann wrote:
"Well, Dee Gordon runs the bases like a teenager drives: aggressively, quickly, and with no regard for his or anyone else’s safety. He’s attempted 19 stolen bases in 32 games this season, which is awesome, even if his 12-for-19 success rate is well below the accepted break-even point.
And as mentioned, he’s striking out less than ever: 11.6 percent of the time, 27th-lowest among 181 qualified batters. That’s good in terms of both effectiveness and entertainment. Only 17 percent of his 2015 plate appearances have ended in a strikeout or a walk, which means that 83 percent of the time, he’s running.
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If Gordon isn't your cup of tea, how about Ichiro Suzuki? He still plays! He even hit a home run!
Aside from the 41-year-old Suzuki, this is a relatively young team, with six of their everyday players (counting Christian Yelich, who has suffered from injury this season) younger than 27.
There's still a lot of room for development here, but sometimes it can feel like the entire offense is waiting on Stanton to deliver some otherworldly bomb to bring in runs. If he doesn't there simply isn't much scoring going on.
The pitching staff has suffered without ace Henderson Alvarez in the mix and the bullpen has imploded (4.56 ERA) more often than not.
But Alvarez should rejoin the team next week, per a report from ESPN.
Alvarez will help, but he won't be enough to push the Marlins past New York or Washington. Miami will have to be content with third place this season.
18. San Francisco Giants
13 of 27
| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 17-18 | -18 | 81-81 | -16 | 3 | 27 |
It's an odd-numbered year, so don't expect the Giants to win another World Series. That's not their thing.
San Francisco actually hasn't made the playoffs during an odd-numbered year since 2003. What does that mean for 2015? Nothing at all, but a playoff run this year might be difficult nonetheless.
The offense has been far from potent without Pablo Sandoval. The Giants have hit just 21 home runs on the year, better than only the pitiful Phillies (19).
The bullpen has been rock-solid once again, as Bleacher Report's Dan Mori noted last week:
"San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy is extremely adept at utilizing his bullpen, keeping his pitchers fresh and putting them in matchup situations where they have the best chance to be successful. Bochy is ably assisted by pitching coach Dave Righetti and bullpen coach Mark Gardner.
The success of the Giants bullpen has been a cornerstone of their three World Series titles. Now, in 2015, the relief corps once again looks strong.
"
But with Matt Cain still rehabbing and Tim Hudson and Ryan Vogelsong struggling, the rotation isn't as strong as it's been in recent years.
But if the Giants continue hovering around .500, they could be pressed into making a move for a bat to bolster their anemic offense.
ESPN's Jim Bowden believes San Fran will take a look at a permanent solution at third base. It could also make a push for Cole Hamels, who was apparently a target of theirs this past offseason.
They'll need to do something in order to contend for the final wild-card spot, though I think this season the odd-year curse will continue to live on.
17-14. Orioles, Blue Rays, Rays, Red Sox
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Boston Red Sox
| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 17-18 | -29 | 84-78 | +6 | 2 | 2 |
Tampa Bay Rays
| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 20-16 | +12 | 83-79 | +8 | 3 | 12 |
Toronto Blue Rays
| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 17-19 | +17 | 81-81 | +29 | 4 | 10 |
Baltimore Orioles
| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 15-17 | +5 | 79-83 | -8 | 5 | 29 |
Is this power-ranking cheating? Sure, but I can't figure out the AL East.
Every team has a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, even the struggling Red Sox and Orioles.
There's no great team in this division. Even the Yankees are a surprise, but it wouldn't be shocking if they fell to these ranks soon enough.
Even those who play within the division will be quick to point out that there's no runaway or powerhouse.
“I don’t think Boston and New York are the powerhouses anymore,” Orioles closer Zach Britton told the Washington Post's Barry Svrluga. “I think anybody in this division is capable of winning."
“Nobody knows what it’s gonna take,” Blue Jays manager John Gibbons told Svrluga, echoing Britton's statement. “But so far everybody’s kind of beating on everybody a little bit. It may stay that way.”
Svluga went on to sum this odd division up:
"This would be the classic coach/manager take: In such a tough division, there’s no separation because we all keep each other in check. And with this unbalanced early schedule in which each AL East team has played at least 25 games against division opponents already, it could look that way. The Blue Jays have beaten up on the Orioles, thumping them 10-2 Tuesday night for their sixth win in the eight games between the two teams. But the Rays in turn have beaten up on the Blue Jays, going 6-1 against Toronto thus far. The Yankees have followed by crushing the Rays, losing for just the second time in eight games against Tampa Bay Tuesday night.
"
It's a long season, and these teams will duke it out plenty in the coming months. Last year's AL East champ, Baltimore, could return to form, or the Yankees could continue their unexpected run of success behind Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriquez and Michael Pineda.
Or Toronto could finally rise up to claim a crown behind the bats of Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. Or Tampa Bay, who has the division's lowest payroll, could embark on yet another underdog quest for glory.
Really, it's anyone's game here. Expect the Red Sox to make some moves for pitching, as their team ERA is the worst in the entire MLB.
Other than that, it's really up in the air. May the best (most adequate?) team win.
13. Los Angeles Angels
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 12-19 | -50 | 73-89 | -94 | 5 | 8 |
The Angels have the best player in baseball in Mike Trout. If this were basketball, he'd be LeBron James, able to carry a team of underachievers through sheer will and skill alone.
But it's not, and one man can only do so much on the diamond.
The pitching staff has been strong, particularly Garrett Richards, who leads all AL pitchers in WAR. C.J. Wilson (2-2, 2.63 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) and Hector Santiago (2-2, 2.41 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) have formed a terrific trio with Richards, but Jered Weaver (4.98 ERA) and Matt Shoemaker (6.61 ERA) have been disastrous.
Offensively, aside from Kole Calhoun and Trout, the Angels haven't gotten much from anyone. Albert Pujols is struggling and Matt Joyce has failed to serve as an adequate replacement for Josh Hamilton.
Bleacher Report's Anthony Witrado warns that the Angels better hope Pujols picks it up, because it's unlikely help arrives from elsewhere:
"Even though he is struggling to find an offensive groove, Pujols’ presence in the fat part of the Angels’ lineup is still critical, since it appears the team’s silent offseason will spill over into the July trade deadline. That means outside help is not on the way for a team that is 11-14 partly because of a roster that sits near the bottom of the majors in several offensive categories.
"
The Angels are now 17-17, second in the AL West, but what Witrado wrote still rings true.
Los Angeles doesn't want to waste another prime Trout year watching the playoffs from home, but unless help arrives in the form of an unexpected trade—the Angels have little in the way of assets at the minor league level—the Angels will find themselves on the outside looking in for the fifth time in six seasons.
12. Seattle Mariners
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 12-19 | -50 | 73-89 | -94 | 5 | 8 |
Seattle's season goes as Mr. Boomstick and the King go.
It has been an inauspicious start to what many hoped would be a promising season, but Nelson Cruz and his magical lumber have kept Seattle alive while they figure out how to mold all of their talent into one coherent, successful baseball unit.
Cruz leads the National League in isolated power (.392), home runs (15), batting average (.361) and OPS (1.158). The 34-year-old is the only Mariner batting over .270.
Robinson Cano hasn't been Robinson Cano, Brad Miller and Kyle Seager are maddeningly inconsistent and catcher Mike Zunino has more strikeouts (40) than total bases (37).
It's possible bat help could come from within, per Seattlepi.com's Nick Eaton:
"That has some Mariners followers — such as columnist Jim Moore — calling for Jesus Montero’s promotion from Triple-A. The catcher-turned-first-baseman-turned-designated-hitter is 45 pounds lighter than when he was suspended 50 games for PED use, and is hitting .344 with 21 RBIs for the Rainiers. Though it’s been tried before, he could inject new life into Seattle’s lineup.
"
They could also make a play for Mr. Tradeblock himself, Troy Tulowitzki, though they would likely have to give up several top prospects to get him, something Seattle's farm system is sorely lacking right now.
The pitching staff is in a similar predicament, just replace Cruz with Felix Hernandez and the others with James Paxton, J.A. Happ, Taijuan Walker and Roenis Elias, who has been filling in for the injured Hisashi Iwakuma.
King Felix ranks first in the AL in wins and percentage of runners left on base, third in ERA and sixth in WAR. Everyone behind him has alternated between highs and lows for most of the season.
The Mariners are 6.5 games behind Houston, but it's still early. If the offense can find itself or revamp from within or by trade, and the pitching staff can settle down and get consistently solid starts from Happ and Elias while waiting for Iwakuma to return, Seattle should be able to make a legitimate run toward the playoffs as the season continues.
11. Pittsburgh Pirates
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 12-19 | -50 | 73-89 | -94 | 5 | 8 |
There isn't much room for error in the NL Central.
The Pirates are currently 17-18, but already sit 7.5 games back of the Cardinals. A division title seems improbable at this point.
The Pirates undoubtedly have weapons, but their biggest, 2013 NL MVP Andrew McCutchen, has been a shell of himself. Limited by a left knee injury in spring training, McCutchen claims he's feeling no ill effects, even during this slow start.
"Physically, I feel great," he told ESPN's Jayson Stark. "I mean, I was running and jumping off the wall two days ago. If I need to go steal a base, I can steal a base. If I need to go make a diving play, I'll make a diving play. My knee's not a factor at all. And I think the more I go out there and keep playing, the more I keep hitting, the more I keep doing what I do, I guess they'll say, 'Oh, I guess he's feeling better.'"
That's an admirable and optimistic outlook, but McCutchen is still hitting just .230 with a .686 OPS. He needs those numbers to start to back up his words.
Fellow outfielder Starling Marte has been their best player, hitting .287 with eight home runs and 25 RBI in 34 games, but the rest of the lineup has slumped alongside Cutch.
The pitching rotation, led by 24-year-old stud Gerrit Cole (5.1, 2.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), is the reason Pittsburgh still has a legitimate shot to make the playoffs even with a murky offensive picture.
Pirates starters are tied with the Mets for the best ERA (3.12) in the league, and they possess the lowest home run total of any staff.
Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett have been tremendous, but Cole is the anchor.
From ESPN's Stark: "Since Labor Day, Cole has gone to the mound 12 times -- and gone 9-1, with a 2.62 ERA, 86 strikeouts in 75.2 innings and 12 consecutive starts allowing three earned runs or fewer. No pitcher in the big leagues has won more games than he has in that span. And don't be shocked if that trend continues."
If McCutchen can overcome his slow start and Gregory Polanco can learn a little more plate discipline, Pittsburgh could have a chance to claim the best outfield in the MLB.
At the very least, they'll be in the hunt for a wild-card spot for most of the season.
10. San Diego Padres
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 12-19 | -50 | 73-89 | -94 | 5 | 8 |
General manager A.J. Preller was a busy man this offseason, working the phones day and night in search of the right pieces.
He brought in an entirely new outfield consisting of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers. He traded for Oakland Athletics catcher Derek Norris and brought in Atlanta Braves closer Craig Kimbrel and Melvin (formerly B.J.) Upton to join former teammate Justin.
It's a young team; only one everyday position player, 30-year-old Kemp, is older than 28.
San Diego has undoubtedly been better this year than last, but there are still issues that need addressing in the near future, according to USA Today's Jorge Oritz:
"The holes that remained after the roster makeup have cropped up, most noticeably an infield with three regulars batting in the .200 range or under in second baseman Jedd Gyorko, shortstop Alexi Amarista and third baseman Will Middlebrooks. The infield has also committed 11 of the Padres' 22 errors, the fifth-highest total in the majors and the reason for their 16 unearned runs, tied for the second highest in the NL.
"
The offense is average—through Thursday the Padres ranked ninth in wRC+, 14th in wOBA and 18th in OBP—but prone to impressive offensive outbursts, as Kemp explained to Ortiz:
"Definitely the identity has changed. I feel like we can score runs with the best of them, as people have seen...We're in every single game, even when we are down. That is the sign of a good team, a team that doesn't give up when it's down two or three runs. Two or three runs with the lineup we have really isn't anything.
"
Yonder Alonso (.333 BA, .437 OBP), who went on the DL with a bone bruise in his right shoulder on May 8, should provide a nice boost when he returns.
The starting rotation has been a bit uneven. They're excellent at inducing whiffs, and the overall ERA (3.91) is commendable, but they put a lot of men on base and give up far too many home runs (51), particularly James Shields (12 HR), Tyson Ross (1.53 WHIP) and Ian Kennedy (1.47 WHIP).
If you factor in the bullpen, San Diego actually has the fifth-worst ERA in the league. That's how bad they've been, even with Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit. One would expect that to get better, but it's been a glaring weakness for most of the season now.
The Padres aren't good enough to catch the Dodgers—no one in the MLB is—but they have a strong shot at claiming one of the two NL wild-card spots.
And with the aggressive Preller pulling strings, don't expect this roster to look the same even a month from now, not with names like Tulowitzki, Castro, Baez, Cueto and Kazmir making the rounds.
9. Houston Astros
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 12-19 | -50 | 73-89 | -94 | 5 | 8 |
It's got to stop soon, right?
I mean, these are the Astros. They can't possibly win the AL West. They can't possibly hold off the Angels and Mariners all season...can they?
FanGraphs doesn't seem to think so, as they have Houston finishing the season just 62-65 over its final 127 games with a negative run differential. But Houston has defied statistics and advanced metrics all year long.
Sure, there are problems, but every team has holes at this point in the season, even those ranked ahead of the Astros.
ESPN.com's Christina Kahrl believes in the power of the 'Stros, as she wrote on May 3:
"It’s easy to identify what this team still doesn’t have: Another front-end starter beyond Keuchel, someone you can count on to provide a low-scoring game, and maybe a true power arm for the late-game mix. But after that, you can’t help but see a team that needs to be taken seriously, not eventually, but now. Anybody who can get to 85 wins is in the picture for winning the AL West. If the Astros find a way to add pitching in-season, that’s in reach. And for all of the flak that Luhnow and his management team took for blasting a bad team to its foundation, you can consider that sweet payback if this particular plan comes together a little bit ahead of schedule.
"
Dallas Keuchel is the star of the staff, a certified ace with a league-leading 1.39 ERA who is second in the majors in ground-ball rate and 10th among pitchers in WAR. He keeps balls in the park and rarely allows any to escape the park.
They have a legitimate No. 2 in Colin McHugh (4-1, 3.50 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), but behind him it's a grab bag of journeymen who could implode at any given moment. They'll need to make a move to remain ahead of the wealthy, powerful Angels, something general manager Jeff Luhnow has acknowledged, per the Houston Chronicle's Evan Drellich:
""(The early success) makes it more likely that we’re going to be making moves to have an immediate payback and potentially even moves that come at a cost long term," Luhnow said. "The more we feel like we’ve got a chance to be relevant all summer and potentially be relevant in October, the more we can be focused on what we can do to bolster this team."
"
The Astros have one of the lowest payrolls in the MLB at just $72 million, but Luhnow told Drellich that won't stop them from trying to make deals, though it may preclude them from eyeing pitchers like Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto, who would severely hinder Houston's spending.
On the other side of the plate, Houston's offense has been one of the most interesting in the league this season. The Astros rank 18th in wOBA, second-to-last in strikeout percentage and dead last in batting average (.226), but they're second in the league in home runs (49) and steals (38).
It's an interesting dynamic, but it's working. Only two everyday players are batting above .231: Jose Altuve and Jake Marisnick.
Chris Carter, Evan Gattis and George Springer are struggling to hit the vaunted .200 mark and Jed Lowrie will be out until after the All-Star break with a torn ligament in his thumb.
Waiting in the wings is vaunted shortstop prospect Carlos Correa (Baseball America No. 4), who was recently promoted to Triple-A and could make his move to the majors soon if Lowrie's replacements continue to struggle, per Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal:
"Ask anyone in the sport -- Correa vs. Gonzalez/Villar is no contest. Never mind that Correa has been one of the youngest players at every level; rival scouts and executives will tell you that he looks like a man among boys. Indeed, some think it’s possible that Correa will become the best player in the Astros’ 54-year history.
"
It could create a problem when Lowrie comes back, but the Astros suddenly find themselves in win now mode.
There's also 23-year-old masher Jon Singleton, who had a ridiculous 10 RBI in a Triple-A game on Wednesday. He currently leads the minors in home runs with 11, and is making a case to be called back to The Show every single day.
The good news for Houston is that they have options and a cushion in the form of a 4.5-game lead over the Angels.
I'm going to have to disagree with the metric masters over at FanGraphs here and say that, even if Houston can't claim a divisional crown, they'll be making a much-needed trip to the postseason this year.
8. Chicago Cubs
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 12-19 | -50 | 73-89 | -94 | 5 | 8 |
Forget the construction. Forget the bleachers, the battle for bathrooms and everything that seems to be haunting Wrigley Field's renovation this season.
For the first time in a long time, there's optimism in Wrigley. There's momentum. There's hope.
The Cubs currently sit five games behind the St. Louis Cardinals, but they're leading the chase for a wild-card spot.
Cubs fans can thank team president Theo Epstein for all the early success. The architect decided to construct his baseball temple out of young, untested material, but it's proving to be stronger at this stage than even his most ardent supporters had hoped.
Every single Cubs infielder is 25 or younger, and they've already called up three players from their top-ranked farm system: Kris Bryant (Baseball America No. 1), Addison Russell (Baseball America No. 3) and Jorge Soler (Baseball America No. 12).
Each young addition has become an everyday player for Chicago. Despite their inexperience, the prospects have come together, along with Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, to form a youthful engine that will look to power these Cubs to their first postseason berth since 2008.
The rotation has had its problems, especially $155 million man Jon Lester, but overall, the Cubs have pitched well enough to get wins.
And it appears as if Lester is finally beginning to find the form that earned him that contract in the first place. According to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat, it was all just a matter of escaping April:
"I think the only good April I've ever had was last year. I'm usually not a fast starter. Usually I guess it's maybe mid-May, June where you get into that rhythm of every five days and arm strength has built up and it's started to warm up and everything falls into place.
"
With Lester (3-0, 1.80 ERA in May) finally starting to pick things up and Jason Hammel and Jake Arrieta pitching at near All-Star levels, the Cubs could quickly go from fun to formidable.
As the pitchers continue to improve, the Cubs' fledgling big leaguers will worry less about pressing for runs and more about getting on base and making smart swings.
Chicago currently ranks 12th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+, two figures I expect to go up as Bryant, Russell and Soler become more comfortable.
It helps that the Cubs have a lineup of athletes who can run the bases swiftly and smartly. Chicago is third in the MLB with 30 stolen bases and ninth in FanGraphs' base running metric, which is an all-encompassing base-running statistic.
There's a lot to like here, but that doesn't mean Epstein and the Cubs are content to remain a witness to the chaotic MLB trade machine.
"Come July 31, there is no way Theo Epstein is going to trade from that talented young base unless it's somebody that's expendable," ESPN Chicago's Jesse Rogers told Buster Olney on the Baseball Tonight podcast. "At this point, maybe Javy Baez is expendable, just to give you a name."
It could be Baez, but it could just as easily be Castro. The Cubs would be able to move Russell back to his natural position at shortstop, bring Baez up to his natural position at second and deal Castro for a talented pitcher to help plug a key hole.
Rogers explained, via Twitter mailbag, that Chicago would likely target a reliever rather than a starter, save for one highly coveted pitcher from Philly:
"Unless his name is Cole Hamels I would think a reliever would be easier and make more sense. More than likely it won't be for a while but a lot depends on where the Cubs are in the standings as we get closer to the trade deadline. There could be several A-plus type pitchers available, but I'm not sure the Cubs will give up the farm for a rental. That's why Hamels is still attractive -- he's locked up for a while. A middle reliever would make more sense just to shore things up.
"
It's still early in the season, and no trades seem imminent, but Chicago will look to be a buyer as it continues its pursuit of a playoff berth. The Cubs likely won't be able to catch St. Louis, but locking up a wild-card spot is a realistic goal for Joe Maddon's Cubs right now.
7. New York Mets
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 12-19 | -50 | 73-89 | -94 | 5 | 8 |
Meet the Mets, Meet the Mets, Step right up and greet the Mets!
A step in the right direction was expected in Queens this year, but the Mets began the season and stepped right to where everyone predicted the World Series-bound Washington Nationals would be at this point: first place in the NL East.
Mets fans have a dominant pitching staff to thank for that.
Led by baseball's Dark Knight, Matt Harvey, New York leads the Majors in ERA (3.04) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.11), and it ranks among the top 10 in percentage of runners stranded, opponent batting average, WHIP and FIP.
But Harvey's sidekicks have been putting in just as much work. Bartolo Colon has a ridiculous 40-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a 3.30 ERA and league-leading six wins.
Jacob deGrom hasn't been as dominant as last year, but he's provided quality outings, while Jon Niese (2.49 ERA) has been extremely effective at the back end of the rotation.
The offense has come and gone, though recently, it's been gone far more.
The Mets rank 27th in the league in wOBA and sit near the bottom in nearly every significant offensive category.
Some of that has to do with the loss of David Wright and Travis d'Arnaud, who were both hitting over .317 before being placed on the 15-day DL.
Their return will provide a boost to an offense that desperately needs it.
The Mets biggest question right now, as it was heading into the season, is the shortstop position, a query still left unanswered.
Wilmer Flores is currently manning the position, but his hold on the situation is tenuous, at best.
The New York media (never known to pull a punch) is already calling for the 23-year-old's head. The New York Post's Ken Davidoff is one among the many voices:
"Flores’ .426 slugging percentage ranks second among the Mets’ regulars, behind only Duda’s .456, although that’s more damning of Flores’ teammates than positive for him. His .287 on-base percentage, the more important measure, places him behind all of his everyday lineup mates.
Factor in the shaky defense, and you have an offseason risk turned in-season bust, to date.
"
Flores leads all Mets with eight errors, which places him 24th out of the MLB's 28 qualified shortstops. He's young, but the Mets' hot start has put added pressure on management to make a move at the club's most deficient position.
Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is likely on his way out soon, and the Mets, with their need for a shortstop and wealth of talented minor league prospects, have the right chips to offer.
But Mets general manager Sandy Alderson has insisted that New York is not interested in pursuing a deal, per Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News:
"The Mets, however, are not interested in making a change at shortstop at this time, Sandy Alderson told The News on Wednesday.
“Nothing has changed,” Alderson said, confirming that the team will continue to go with Wilmer Flores for the near future.
"
Whether that's smoke and mirrors or not, we'll have to wait and see. But with the Nationals just one game back and the offense sputtering, New York will need to make some kind of deal to maintain their hold on the division, or at the very least, a wild-card position.
That could come in the form of a deal with the Cubs for Starlin Castro, or elsewhere.
The pitching staff is good enough to keep the Mets in a dog fight all year, but reinforcements will have to come at some point before the offense turns this inspiring start into the Hindenburg.
6. New York Yankees
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 12-19 | -50 | 73-89 | -94 | 5 | 8 |
Not much was expected out of the Yankees this season, but here we are, on May 15, with the Yankees on top of the AL East, one game ahead of the Rays.
Jacoby Ellsbury is tied for third in the AL with a .348 batting average. Mark Texeria and Alex Rodriguez rank third and fourth in the AL with 11 and nine home runs, respectively.
Michael Pineda, currently first among all pitchers in FIP (1.91) and second in WAR (1.8), is coming off a dominant 16-strikeout performance.
Closer Andrew Miller and setup man Dellin Betances are the most frightening combo in baseball. They've yet to give up an earned run all season.
The overall rotation is middling, but it's done enough to put the Yankees offense in a position to win games. That offense has consistently done its job.
The Bombers currently rank third in home runs, fifth in wOBA, sixth in runs and sixth in wRC+.
Brett Gardner and Ellsbury have been excellent on the basepaths, with 10 and 11 steals, respectively. Consequently, both men are among the league leaders in runs scored.
But the staff remains shaky, and if the offense goes cold, they Yankees could lose ground quickly in an unforgiving AL East.
Help could be on the way for the rotation, though how soon it comes is still up in the air as Masahiro Tanaka and Ivan Nova slowly work their way through rehab.
George A. King III of the New York Post reported that Tanaka had an encouraging bullpen session in Florida on Tuesday:
"“It felt good coming out of my hand,’’ the 26-year-old right-hander said before the Yankees’ 4-2 loss to the Rays Tuesday night at Tropicana Field. “I threw everything. I didn’t feel anything. We have to wait until [Wednesday] and make sure I’m OK.’’
"
As for Nova, his return from Tommy John surgery has been difficult, but he had a productive bullpen session against Phillies minor leaguers in extended spring training this week, per King.
They'll be needed soon, as Chase Whitley looks to be out of the rotation for a while after suffering a right elbow sprain, according to Newsday's Erik Boland.
The Rays are closing in on the Yankees, and it's possible this early-season surge is a bit of an aberration, but a trade for one of the strong arms out there—Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir or even Aaron Harang—could provide the punch the Yankees need to maintain their hot start.
I think they'll be those typically aggressive Yankees and attempt a bold play to remain relevant in the postseason hunt, ultimately coming out on top in the AL East.
5. Kansas City Royals
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 12-19 | -50 | 73-89 | -94 | 5 | 8 |
The Kansas City Royals are on a mission. They want what they were denied by the Giants in last year's World Series. They want the trophy. They want the rings.
It's been a season of revenge, and Kansas City hasn't taken any prisoners.
The Royals are tied with Houston for the best record in the American League, though they're just one game ahead of the Detroit Tigers and three ahead of the surprising Twins.
The Royals have the best defensive player in the game in Lorenzo Cain, the best defense in the league and, despite just 27 home runs, one of the best offenses in the league.
Kansas City leads the league in batting average (.285) and trail only the Dodgers in wOBA and wRC+. Of the top 21 batting averages in the AL, five belong to Royals: Eric Hosmer, Alcides Escobar, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Kendrys Morales.
And that's all with Alex Rios having played only seven games due to a broken bone in his left hand.
Their 32.7 defensive rating is more than double the second-place Rays' 14.3. Their bullpen, anchored by immaculate closer Wade Davis (2-0, 6 SV, 0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP), has the lowest ERA (1.63) in the majors.
However, there is a page missing from this book of perfection. Actually, you could say the book missing a few chapters, because any Royal in the starting rotation not named Edinson Volquez has been an unmitigated disaster.
Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Guthrie, Danny Duffy and Jason Vargas all own ERAs over 5.00. Even with Volzquez, the Royals still own the league's eighth-worst team ERA (4.67).
Manager Ned Yost has remained optimistic, though, per MLB.com's Todd Wills:
"Duffy, Ventura, Guthrie, Vargas, they were all fantastic last year, at the end of the year. And the reason we went as far as we did was because of them. So, you've got a track record to fall back on. It's not, 'Jeez, I've never seen it before.' We have seen it before. When you're in this game as long as I've been in the game, you understand that guys have ups and downs, but you grind it out. You know how talented they are. You know that they'll get it together, and when they do, they'll go on a nice run.
"
Yost had to place Vargas on the DL with a left elbow injury on May 8, but Chris Young has stepped into his place and done a fantastic job. The 36-year-old is 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.52 WHIP in two starts since being promoted from the bullpen.
Even with Young a nice plug for the time, Kansas City needs more help if things don't improve soon.
ESPN's Buster Olney told Sports Radio 810 WHB in Kansas City that the Royals could make a push for Oakland's Scott Kazmir or Cincinnati's Mike Leake.
Kansas City is going to be battling Detroit for the AL Central lead all season, but if it can snag a quality arm to alleviate its one glaring weakness, we might see another Royals run to the World Series this October.
4. Detroit Tigers
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 12-19 | -50 | 73-89 | -94 | 5 | 8 |
The Tigers haven't missed the playoffs since 2010. That streak won't be broken this year, not with Miguel Cabrera once again leading the way.
Miggy (.328 BA, 1.005 OPS, 8 HR, 26 RBI) has been deflating more balls than mentioned in the Wells Report, though he uses a bat for his purposes.
But his supporting cast has been strong, too. New addition Yoenis Cespedes, Anthony Gose, Ian Kinsler and Jose Iglesias are all chipping in on offense.
Designated Hitter Victor Martinez is off to a slow start, though he still has more walks (14) than strikeouts (13).
Rajai Davis (8-for-9 on stolen base attempts) provides defense and speed off the bench, while rookie catcher James McCann has done an admirable job filling in for the injured Alex Avila, who remains out for an uncertain amount of time with a left knee injury, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.
All of that adds up to one of the most potent offenses in the league: sixth in wOBA, sixth in wRC+ and sixth in OPS.
Their pitching, on the other hand, leaves something to be desired.
Justin Verlander, currently on the disabled list with a right triceps strain, is slowly working his way back, as Tigers manager Brad Ausmus explained to Michigan Live's James Schmehl:
"He looked good. He looked free and easy. His action was good. His arm was good. He said he felt good. And there was no irritation or pain. All those point in the right direction, but I want to get him over the last bump where we can get him into games and not have any side effects.
"
Verlander's MVP form has abandoned him, but Detroit still needs him bolstering the staff if it wants to make another deep postseason run.
David Price (3-1, 3.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) and Alfredo Simon (4-1, 3.05 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) have pitched well this year as Detroit's one-two combination, but everything after that has been a disaster.
Anibal Sanchez, Shane Greene and Kyle Lobstein all have ERAs over 4.30, though their FIPs indicate some of that has been due to bad luck.
Luckily, the bullpen has been largely reliable. Joakim Soria has 11 saves with a 1.13 ERA and a minuscule 0.56 WHIP. Angel Nesbitt has been almost as good, posting a 2.70 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP and an 11-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Typically, if the game gets there, it's over.
As for help on the way, there won't be much coming from the minors. Baseball America ranked Detroit's farm system as the worst in baseball prior to this season. It makes sense, as Detroit has been trading away assets to chase those ever-elusive World Series rings, as Baseball America's John Manuel explains:
"The Tigers’ short-term focus has not changed, leading to trades of seven of last year’s Top 10 Prospects just in the last 12 months. Just three of the club’s top draft picks of the last decade remain in the organization, and Detroit rarely picks high, leading to a fairly conservative draft track record in recent years.
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The AL central is going to be contentious all year. The Royals and Tigers will jostle for position, running on the same track and trying to push the other off, with the Twins trailing just out of sight, the dark horse nobody expects to hang around.
It's likely the divisional crown will come down to the very last week of the season. As my rankings indicate, I expect Detroit to eke it out over the Royals, but just by a game or two.
3. Washington Nationals
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Division Finish | Farm System |
| 12-19 | -50 | 73-89 | -94 | 5 | 8 |
A healthy Bryce Harper is a fun Bryce Harper. A healthy Bryce Harper makes for a fun baseball season. And a healthy Bryce Harper makes for a really, really good Nationals team.
Harper, still just 22 years old, has finally been able to stay on the field unencumbered by any sort of injury. The results have been incredible.
More than incredible, they've been historic, though he's done his best to avoid history and focus on the present, according to USA Today's Gabe Lacques:
"Sunday morning, Harper arrived to a gaggle of news media after his six-homer, 12-RBI barrage – he's the fifth in major league history to hit those three-game marks. He fielded questions for a bit more than two minutes, sticking to his theme that the Nationals are a "great team, and everybody knows it," while doing his best to deflect comparisons about his historical track.
"I'm just trying," he said, "to be the Bryce I am."
"
Well, the Bryce he is apparently is a baseball savant who leads the National League in home runs (12), OPS (1.119), runs (29) and walks (30) and is second in RBI (31) and WAR (2.2). Sounds like a pretty good guy to be.
He's on pace for 54 round-trippers, 140 RBI and 131 runs. Even if those numbers come back to reality, which is likely, Harper could be looking at his first MVP should he stay healthy.
It's easy to get sucked into Harper's orbit and forget there are other Nats performing some stellar feats of their own.
Yunel Escobar, Wilson Ramos and Denard Span are all hitting well above .300, though Jayson Werth (.189 BA) and Ian Desmond (.225) have yet to find their swings.
Unfortunately for Washington, things have been a bit uneven on the mound.
Max Scherzer is a certified ace. He leads all pitchers in WAR (1.9) and ranks among the leaders in ERA, FIP and strikeouts.
Doug Fister carries a 2-1 record and a 2.87 ERA, but his 4.07 FIP and low strikeout totals suggest that may be a bit of an aberration. Conversely, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman both have ERAs over 4.00 but carry substantially lower FIPs, which means they can be expected to rebound from slow starts soon.
The real question mark here is Stephen Strasburg. His 6.06 ERA is the seventh worst in the majors, and though his 8.83 K/9 ratio is 25th in the MLB, the rest of his peripherals are far from great.
The Washington Post's James Wagner explained Strasburg's issues in more detail:
"His pitch sequencing has been off; he has used his curveball more than his trademark change-up. He hasn’t given up enough homers (three in 35 2/3 innings) or his strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.18) is so out of whack that his situation is more alarming. He is simply giving up a lot of contact and his swinging strike rate has dropped (from 11.2 percent last season to 7.1 percent). His stuff and command simply aren’t sharp.
"
Washington needs Strasburg to be at his best to have any chance of challenging the St. Louis Cardinals or Los Angeles Dodgers for a pennant.
Even with their former ace struggling, Washington has nearly closed the gap on the Mets, lurking just one game back after a slow start to the season.
The Nationals haven't been involved in any major trade rumors, but if Strasburg continues to struggle, they could seek a deal that would bring in a healthy arm for the stretch run.
As things stand right now, the Nats have enough firepower to pass the Mets in the NL East, who have struggled recently. Whether they have enough to make a trip to the World Series remains to be seen.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
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| Current Record | Current Run Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Div. Finish | Farm System |
| 24-10 | +51 | 92-70 | +85 | 1 | 16 |
The St. Louis Cardinals are baseball's version of the San Antonio Spurs.
Since 2000, the Cardinals have missed the playoffs just four times, finishing below .500 just once, in 2007.
Over that same time, they've made four World Series and won two. They've continued to thrive despite losing Tony LaRussa and Albert Pujols and have generally been able to overcome any adversity baseball's unforgiving 162-game schedule might bring.
This year has been no different.
When staff ace Adam Wainwright went down on April 25 with a ruptured Achilles tendon, the Cards never blinked. Football loves its "next man up" mantra, but the Cardinals have staked a higher claim to that motto than most gridiron gangs.
Lance Lynn, John Lackey and Michael Wacha have done their best to help Cards fans forget about the loss of Wainwright. As the stats bears out, they've done a more-than-adequate job of easing the pain.
Even without Wainwright, the Cardinals pitching staff has been the best in baseball. St. Louis leads the majors in ERA, FIP and left-on-base percentage while ranking in the top 10 in WHIP and opponent batting average.
And, to make matters worse for the poor saps standing in the batter's box, research from Grantland's Jonah Keri reveals that Mike Matheny's staff may thrive even more under pressure:
"When hitters have stepped to the plate in big spots against the Cardinals this year, they’ve hit like Bartolo Colon in a straitjacket. With runners in scoring position, St. Louis opponents have batted just .189, the lowest mark in baseball by a mile. And it’s not just a low batting average either: Cards opponents sport a miserable .268 OBP with RISP and have slugged an anemic .254 in those spots. Things don’t get much better in close-and-late situations, in which opposing teams are batting a league-low .221.
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While the staff has been the star thus far, the bats have been the backbone.
The Cards are second in batting average and fourth in OBP, and they rank among the top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, team WAR and clutch rating.
Despite slow starts from Jason Heyward and Jon Jay, the Cards offense has hummed along. Matt Carpenter and Matt Holiday are both hitting over .330, while seven different players have driven in at least 11 runs so far.
There isn't premiere speed here, but nearly every Cardinal is a heady runner on the basepaths. And a lack of top-tier athleticism certainly hasn't hindered their defense, ranked No. 2 in the entire league and anchored by the best defensive catcher in the game, Yadier Molina.
And they still might be getting better. According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Tom Timmermann, Jaime Garcia appears set to return to the Cardinals this month and bolster an already rock-solid pitching staff, while the potential to add Phillies ace Cole Hamels remains in play, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale.
In a weaker-than-expected NL Central, the Cardinals look like strong favorites to take home a third consecutive division title and compete for the pennant with our No. 1 team.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
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| Current Record | CurrentRun Diff. | Proj. Record | Proj. Run Diff. | Proj. Div. Finish | Farm System |
| 22-12 | +61 | 96-66 | +152 | 1 | 3 |
CBS Sports' Matt Snyder succinctly summed up the Dodgers' season earlier this week:
"Myriad injuries to the pitching staff, a patchwork bullpen, Clayton Kershaw not pitching like Clayton Kershaw, a rookie center fielder and a 22-10 record. Ridiculous talent here and they have the pieces to add during the season if they wish. Watch out.
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Watch out, indeed. These Dodgers, they of the $278 million payroll, according to Spotrac, are baseball's most dangerous team.
FanGraphs projects L.A. to finish with the best record in the league, and really, with this ridiculous roster, it should.
Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford have only played in 26 games combined. Jimmy Rollins isn't even close to touching the Mendoza line.
Clayton Kershaw's ERA is currently a 4.26. Hyun-Jin Ryu has yet to pitch this season and suffered another setback in his rehab process, per the LA Times' Zach Helfand. Brandon McCarthy suffered a torn elbow ligament, which requires Tommy John surgery, ending his season after just four games, per the LA Times' Bill Shaikin.
And still here the Dodgers sit atop the NL West. The Dodgers lead the majors in OPS, isolated power, wOBA and wRC+.
Adrian Gonzalez (.360 BA, 1.117 OPS, 9 HR, 30 RBI) is playing like an MVP. Rookie Joc Pederson (.255 BA, 1.015 OPS, 10 HR, 21 RBI) is playing like an All-Star.
Yasmani Grandal, Howie Kendrick, Scott Van Slyke and Andre Ethier have all stepped up and played huge roles so far this season.
They also have young stud Corey Seager (Baseball America No. 5) waiting in the wings to take over at shortstop should Rollins continue to fall to Father Time.
And with Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, Aaron Harang and Scott Kazmir likely available, the Dodgers, never ones to be shy with money, can try to make a move for a big arm to add next to Zack Greinke and Kershaw.
Though, even with a depleted staff and impostor Kershaw on the mound, the Dodgers still rank among the top 10 in ERA, FIP, WHIP, strikeout percentage and batting average against.
If they can get fully healthy again, while adding another big arm to the rotation, we could be looking at a 100-win team. Minimum.
Like I said, watch out.
All statistics, including projections, are from FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
Farm system rankings are from Baseball America and are indicative of an organization's entire minor league system.
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