Is Bob Baffert His Own Worst Enemy in Quest for 2015 Triple Crown?

As a four-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer, Bob Baffert has grown somewhat used to contending for the Triple Crown.

In fact, he paired up each Derby win with a subsequent victory in the Preakness. That gave him a total of nine weeks’ worth of Triple Crown-related hysteria heading to Belmont Park. But it’s not all sunshine and Black-Eyed Susans for Baffert this year; he could be his own worst enemy in his bid to win the Triple Crown with American Pharoah.

American Pharoah will be the deserving betting favorite, but it will be the second betting choice that could give American Pharoah and, by extension, Baffert a serving of bittersweetness. Joining the Kentucky Derby winner will be Dortmund, the giant horse with only one loss on his resume: his third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.

“We were ready to rumble,” Baffert told kentuckyderby.com. “Since their last works I was hearing how good they were and I was hoping it would come true. I felt very confident going in.” And both enter the Preakness as the biggest threats to each other. Baffert holds the trigger with the one bullet and could commit Triple Crownicide.

Twenty years ago, this fear was realized for the man Baffert just tied with his fourth Derby win: Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas.

For those who have grown accustomed to Todd Pletcher saddling several Derby horses each year, Lukas was the pioneer. It’s no coincidence Pletcher mentored under Lukas.

In 1995, Lukas brought three horses to the Derby: Thunder Gulch, Timber Country and the filly Serena’s Song. Thunder Gulch, the least touted of Lukas’ three entrants in 1995, won the Derby. Timber Country, the 1994 juvenile champion, was a fast-closing third.

Lukas then wheeled both of them back in the Preakness, and it was his Derby third-place finisher who eclipsed Thunder Gulch—the requisite Triple Crown hopeful—to win the Preakness and dash dreams along the way.

"I'm just blessed to have two horses like these in the barn," Lukas told Joseph Durso of the New York Times in 1995. "They'll go to New York, and let them run the rubber match in the Belmont Stakes. The horses will sort it out."

Lukas was genuinely pleased he had won the Derby for one owner and the Preakness for another, even as the Triple Crown drought entered its 17th year. Thunder Gulch went on to win the Belmont Stakes for Lukas, but the Triple Crown hopes had died three weeks earlier.

Twenty years ago, a third-place finisher at the Derby beat a horse with the same trainer at the Preakness. Sound familiar? Dortmund finished third and had the Kentucky Derby his own way. He set a modest pace, got a beautiful ground-saving trip and was eventually passed by Firing Line and American Pharoah.

“And I think what we saw today, even Dortmund, he ran a really game race,” Baffert said in a post-race news conference. “It could have gone either way. And the 3/8 pole, I was getting a little bit like maybe he's struggling a little bit. He has never been in that position before.”

Perhaps the Derby gave Dortmund an extra level of fitness that could force him to the front of the Preakness. Or maybe he was overextended while finishing third in a race where he had no excuse other than his own lack of stamina down the lane.

Before heading to Pimlico, American Pharoah and Dortmund have been galloping at Churchill Downs. According to Preakness' official site, Baffert said, “Those two looked good. American Pharoah, he is something to see out there. He just floats over the track. Dortmund looked like a happy horse out there today.”

Yes, Baffert is his own worst enemy by running Dortmund against American Pharoah, but ultimately it’s not his call.

The two horses are owned by different people, and though Baffert trains them, he must heed the owners’ wishes and give their horses the best chances to win. But in that above quote, you can infer American Pharoah is just in a different class: He’s smooth, elegant and athletic, like he’s skating out there.

American Pharoah will be the deserved favorite, and it just so happens the horse most likely to beat him is trained by the same man.