American Pharoah's Biggest Obstacles to Overcome in Pursuit of Triple Crown

Horse racing enters the national consciousness every May for one reason—the chance at a Triple Crown. 

Despite the hope and interest of even casual fans, there is a reason the sport’s most elusive achievement hasn’t happened since Affirmed won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes in 1978. It is simply harder to do in 2015 than it was in the 1970s.

After all, American Pharoah held off 18 other horses on the way to the Kentucky Derby title alone. Affirmed faced a grand total of 20 combined horses throughout the three races in 1978. The field is deeper than in years past, and winning three pressure-packed races in the course of a month is physically taxing.

If anyone understands that, it is American Pharoah’s trainer, Bob Baffert. A Baffert-trained horse entered the Belmont with victories at the Kentucky Derby and Preakness three different times, only to lose that final Triple Crown leg in heartbreaking fashion (Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998 and War Emblem in 2002).

Here are some of the reasons why American Pharoah could join that group.

Dortmund Stands in the Way

Ironically, one of Baffert’s other horses could prevent a Triple Crown.

Dortmund set the initial pace at the Kentucky Derby on the inside but was unable to hold off American Pharoah’s charge from the outside (or Firing Line). It was Dortmund’s first career loss after he racked together six consecutive victories, including a win at the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) and the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Garry Jones/Associated Press

What’s more, Dortmund is the son of 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown. Dortmund’s jockey, Martin Garcia, also won the 2010 Preakness with Lookin at Lucky and is familiar with Dortmund's running style in marquee races.

Among the pedigree, an experienced jockey and the early speed we saw at the Kentucky Derby, the massive Dortmund is a legitimate threat to win the Preakness or the Belmont. Either one would be enough to end American Pharoah’s Triple Crown dreams and maintain Affirmed’s spot as the last horse to accomplish the feat.

Physically Grueling Schedule

The Triple Crown schedule is enough to even the field for American Pharoah. The Kentucky Derby was May 2, the Preakness is May 16, and the Belmont Stakes is June 6, so American Pharoah’s stamina will certainly be tested.

In a testament to how grueling that schedule truly is, 13 horses have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown since Affirmed, only to lose at the Belmont Stakes (including California Chrome last year).

Quality horses, such as Carpe Diem, won’t even run in the Preakness and will be fresher heading into the Belmont Stakes, which will put even more pressure on American Pharoah. The last time a Belmont winner also competed in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness was 2005, when Afleet Alex accomplished the impressive feat.

Garry Jones/Associated Press

The good news for American Pharoah fans is the easiest part is next, if trainer Bob Baffert is to be believed, per the Associated Press (via Fox Sports): "To me, the Preakness is the easiest of the three legs. The Derby is the hardest. Once you get through there, you know your horses are in top form. It's a two-week turnaround. It's just a matter of getting there." 

The Preakness may be the easy part, but figuring out a way to run three grueling races in a row against a loaded field requires an entire month of sustained focus without a single slip. That is a tall order in 2015.

Ominous Time in Kentucky Derby

Jennie Rees of USA Today pointed out that American Pharoah didn’t exactly set the world on fire at Churchill Downs:

"

His final quarter-mile time in the Derby was a crawling 26.57 seconds. While he's an outstanding horse, he's not Seattle Slew. The relatively soft early pace of the Derby — a scenario aided by speedy Florida Derby winner Materiality breaking slowly — made it tough on closers. The Preakness will be another story. He wasn't particularly bred to go 1¼ miles, let alone the Belmont's 1½ miles.

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The interesting thing about that timing is the fact that American Pharoah came from behind to win at Churchill Downs and still didn't turn many heads with his speed. He may not be able to replicate that comeback at the Preakness or the Belmont Stakes if a clean look at the finish line fails to appear.

There wasn’t a horse in his way at the Derby on the outside, and he took full advantage of the space on the final turn.

Rees’ point that American Pharoah isn’t built for the longer Belmont ties into the grueling schedule and the possibility for tired legs down the stretch. He is still a lightly raced horse (three starts at age two and two Derby preps) and isn’t accustomed to running three grueling races in the course of a month. That could come into play in the final turn of the final race.

If American Pharoah has plans of closing a Triple Crown run with two more victories, he must close the long Belmont race with a better pace than we saw at Churchill Downs.