Preakness 2015: Horses, Favorites and Picks for This Year's Field
With just under 48 hours to go before the post position draw for the $1 million Grade 1 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course, the field is still in flux, but there is no doubt who the one to beat is.
Kentucky Derby (G1) winner American Pharoah did not disappoint on the first Saturday of May, the third consecutive betting favorite to win the Run for the Roses, following in the hoofsteps of Orb and California Chrome.
Trainer Bob Baffert won the Kentucky Derby for the fourth time, and his three previous winners, Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and War Emblem (2002), all came back to win the Preakness Stakes two weeks later. Baffert has won two other editions of the race, with Point Given in 2001 and Lookin At Lucky in 2010.
Let’s look at the horses, long shots, favorites and early picks for this year’s race:
How the Field Is Shaping Up
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Four of the top five finishers of the Kentucky Derby are pointing toward the second jewel of the Triple Crown, while sixth-place finisher Materiality may still be heading to Baltimore as well.
Derby winner American Pharoah, runner-up Firing Line, third-place finisher Dortmund and fourth-place finisher Danzig Moon will renew acquaintances at Pimlico.
Per Pimlico.com, “seven-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer” Todd Pletcher said he would make a decision on Florida Derby (G1) winner Materiality and Competitive Edge on Tuesday.
Materiality had a tough trip in a sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher said Stanford (runner-up in the Louisiana Derby) is still possible. Carpe Diem was declared out of the running on Monday, per Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman, and will point toward the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes on June 6.
“Everybody galloped today. I’ll make a final decision tomorrow after I see them train,” Pletcher said.
It appears there will likely be three new shooters in the Preakness—Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G3) winner Divining Rod, Federico Tesio victor Bodhisattva and recent maiden winner Tale of Verve all considered long shots, according to the latest Preakness betting odds released by Odds Shark.
The Long Shots
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Bodhisattva (40-1): This colt is the local hero, having won the Federico Tesio at the Pimlico main track in his last start. In 2002, Magic Weisner ran second in the Tesio and rallied from far back to run second to War Emblem at odds of 45-1, completing a $2 exacta that paid $327, according to Equibase.
Grand Bili (50-1): This will be his stakes debut if he starts. The colt broke his maiden in his debut and then ran second against first-level allowance optional claimers in his last outing at Gulfstream Park. He is in over his head in this spot.
Tale of Verve (50-1): It took this Dallas Stewart trainee six tries to break his maiden, and the Preakness is going to be a very tough spot to face winners for the first time. Stewart knows his way around a long shot on the Triple Crown trail. According to Equibase, he saddled Commanding Curve in 2013 at 37-1 and Golden Soul at 34-1 betting odds, both runner-up finishers in the Kentucky Derby.
The Hopefuls
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Danzig Moon (22-1): Fifth in the Kentucky Derby, his trainer, Mark Casse, is sending him to Baltimore to attempt to turn the tables. The colt had some trouble steadying himself when bumped coming into the first turn in the Derby. His best finish in a stake was in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), when he came in second behind winner Carpe Diem.
Divining Rod (22-1): The son of Tapit put it all together his last time out, winning the Coolmore Lexington (G3) at Keeneland in good time (1:43:29). Trained by Arnaud Delacour, the colt was no match for Carpe Diem at the Tampa Bay Stakes, finishing third to him on March 7 .
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The Contenders
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Firing Line (5-1): With Baffert’s duo getting most of the attention, do not forget about the Derby runner-up. The colt battled on gamely in the stretch and only came up a length shy at the wire. Dortmund got the best of him twice, but this colt has not run a bad one in six career starts.
Dortmund (11-2): After starting his career with six consecutive wins, he tasted defeat for the first time in his third-place finish in the Derby, weakening late to finish three lengths back of the winner. The shorter distance should suit him, and Baffert has won this race five times.
Dark-Horse Pick
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Materiality (16-1): If Pletcher decides to run this colt, he may have the best shot of pulling off the upset. The colt had a lousy trip in his sixth-place finish in the Derby. The colt is by Afleet Alex, the winner of the 2005 Preakness.
Materiality earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure in his victory in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28, per Daily Racing Form, the highest number earned among all three-year-olds this spring on the Triple Crown trail.
The 16-1 early betting odds at Odd Shark look attractive, and he seems the most likely among the four Pletcher contenders to race on Saturday.
The Favorite
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American Pharoah (5-6): The price is going to be on the light side, likely going off at less than even money depending on how many runners Pletcher sends out. After two romps at Oaklawn Park, American Pharoah finally had to work hard at Churchill Downs and was up to the task
Is it possible he regresses off his hard-fought Derby win? It could happen, but having Baffert calling the shots will give chalk players plenty of confidence. Baffert has won the Preakness five times.
The colt could be vulnerable on the first Saturday in June in the Belmont Stakes (G1), but he looks like a sure thing this Saturday.
Early Prediction for Win, Place and Show
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The final field and post positions have not been determined, but let’s make an early prediction for the top three finishers of the Preakness Stakes:
Show: Firing Line
Firing Line did finally finish ahead of Dortmund last out—and he fires every time out—but has only won twice out of his six career starts. It seems more likely he will have to settle for a smaller share again on Saturday.
Place: Dortmund
The colt battled for the early lead and was in the mix until just inside the final furlong. The Baffert trainee should be right in the mix again, and the possibility of an off-track would enhance his chances.
Win: American Pharoah
Baffert has won the Derby four times, and the first three times he won it he was successful at the Preakness two weeks later. The colt is the most likely winner but may not end up offering much betting value.
Preakness betting odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Follow Michael Dempsey on Twitter @turfnsport.
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